After New Year’s Day, the price of polyester staple fiber has stabilized at more than 6,000 yuan/ton; however, the futures market has declined in the past two days, but the spot market price has been very resilient; regarding future expectations, the market has long and short news The collision is fierce; on the one hand, corporate equity inventories continue to be negative, and there are many downstream orders until March, but on the other hand, raw material supply pressure is expected to increase, and the spot processing fee space for short fiber has been significantly higher than that of other polyester products. The market There is so much news about bulls and bears, how will it develop in the future?
Based on the current fundamentals, entering January, the operating rate of downstream yarn mills has gradually declined. However, since October 2020, the equity inventory of polyester staple fiber companies has continued to be negative. In addition, factory maintenance has increased since the middle of the year, so the industry supply pressure in the first quarter is generally low. Moreover, although downstream yarn mills currently have abundant raw material inventories, most of their own orders can be received until March. With ample room for processing fees and good orders, mills may still have a wave of stocking operations before the holiday.
Recent direct spinning staple fiber maintenance/restart schedule
Furthermore, compared to the continuous rise in cotton spinning raw materials such as cotton and viscose staple fiber, polyester staple fiber currently has a small increase; the current cotton-polyester price difference is still at a historically high level, and the viscose-polyester price difference continues to widen. ; Most yarn mill purchasers believe that polyester staple fiber is still at a low value level, and there is currently good room for processing fees for various pure and blended yarns, especially the profit room for pure polyester T32S is more than 1,000 yuan/ton, so Theoretically, spinning mills can accept the current price of short fiber.
Based on the above theory, the future market of polyester staple fiber is still a relatively optimistic expectation ; However, in terms of raw material costs, with the successive implementation of polyester factory maintenance plans and the gradual increase in supply, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will gradually intensify. Although the short-term supply of ethylene glycol is slightly tight, it will also face the contradiction between supply and demand in the future, so in In a cycle of substantial production expansion, market expectations for the future are not optimistic. However, it is worth noting that the industry’s expectations for oil are optimistic, which will form a strong support for polyester raw materials in terms of cost.
The author believes that the main factor restricting the current price increase of polyester staple fiber is that the market still has some low-priced supply that has not yet been digested. At present, the staple fiber of traders’ yarn mills The cost is mostly lower than 6,150 yuan/ton. As the news is not all expected to be good and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, buyers still have a strong wait-and-see attitude, so it is normal for spot prices to fall within a narrow range. However, based on the current fundamentals, negative inventory of short-fiber companies may become the norm in the first quarter, coupled with the increase in routine maintenance at the end of the year, while the holidays for downstream spinning mills are slightly later than expected, and the market’s mid- to long-term expectations for oil are still optimistic. Comprehensive Judging from the results, the polyester staple fiber market in the first quarter may be easy to rise but difficult to fall. </p
