Due to the increasingly serious epidemic situation, the market’s urgent need for epidemic prevention materials has triggered a rebound in the price of meltblown materials! The prices of ExxonMobil 6936G2 and Basel 650Y (South Korea and the United States), the star meltblown materials sought after by the market, have increased recently.
Survey shows that the market price of Basel 650Y a month ago was 12,000 yuan/ton, and recently the market price has reached 15,000 yuan/ton. The market has Goods are hard to come by. The average market price of ExxonMobil 6936G2 has also increased from 12,000 yuan/ton in the past few days to the current 13,500 yuan/ton. Merchants are reluctant to sell, and it is expected to rise to 18,000 yuan/ton in the future.
Why is the market optimistic about ExxonMobil PP6936G2 and Basel MF650Y (South Korea and the United States)? Because they are both metallocene processes and do not contain excessive Oxide.
Why did the imported meltblown material suddenly rise by 2,000~3,000 yuan? It is understood that the domestic dealers of ExxonMobil and Basel are currently not placing orders from foreign manufacturers due to financial constraints or the impact of epidemic research and judgment.
These dealers imported these meltblown materials in large quantities from April to June 2020, resulting in a large amount of inventory in the market. At that time, the cost per ton of air freight for these dealers was It’s 22,000, and the shipping cost per ton is 18,000. From January to March 2020, the price of imported ExxonMobil meltblown materials was as high as 60,000 per ton, and dealers who entered the market early had huge profit margins.
However, the market began to decline sharply in May 2020. Imported meltblown materials have been hovering at a low of 12,000 yuan/ton for about half a year. Businesses that entered later , basically all suffered serious losses.
Some industry insiders have analyzed that the current social inventory of imported meltblown materials is running at a low level, global shipping is tight, and no new goods are entering, so it will continue to rise in the future.
In addition, domestic melt-blown materials are also rising, with prices increased by 200-500 yuan/ton. According to the survey, the meltblown materials of Korea Dawn and Kingfa Technology have risen to 12,000 yuan/ton, and Shandong Dawn has raised prices by 11,500 yuan/ton, and orders from the Longkou factory have been scheduled for mid-February.
For specific analysis of the reasons for the rise, please refer to the following content:
The price of raw material PP has increased
PP market is overall higher. At present, the cost side of PP has strong support. PP futures have rebounded continuously recently, with an intraday increase of more than 3%, which has greatly stimulated the spot price of PP; petrochemical ex-factory prices have increased across the board, and inventory pressure has not yet appeared. Masks have driven a surge in demand for fiber materials, etc., and spot prices have increased across the board. Go higher. At present, the mainstream price of wire drawing in North China is 8,000-8,200 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of wire drawing in East China is 8,150-8,300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of wire drawing in South China is 81,500-8,300 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of polyurethane wire drawing in North China is 8,000-8,200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in East China The price is 8150-8300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in South China is 8100-8300 yuan/ton.
PP futures continue to rebound and have a breakthrough Upward signs. After experiencing a continuous rebound last week, PP accelerated its rise this week, with an intraday increase of more than 3%. At present, PP is increasing its position, and the five-day moving average has strong support. In addition, there is a mask theme, and the multi-equity attribute has once again appeared. It is expected that PP is expected to continue to rise.
Upstream raw materials
Crude oil: WTI fell 1.21 to 52.36; Brent fell 1.32 to 55.1
Propylene: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 7,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50%.
Recent Guangzhou Petrochemical Third Line, Wuhan Petrochemical, Shijiazhuang Refining and chemical plants were shut down, and Lanzhou Petrochemical’s old line was shut down and restarted. The PP operating rate dropped slightly and is currently around 93.5%. However, considering the increase in production capacity base, the absolute supply of PP is still large. While the operating rate has increased, new devices such as Yantai Wanhua have been put into production one after another, and supply pressure has not diminished.
Outlook
PP’s recent positive news continues to ferment, and a rebound trend has basically been established. Although there is a certain pressure on the supply side, petrochemical stocks have not yet been significantly exhausted. On the one hand, the current benefits come from the demand side. Under the background of the epidemic, the demand for masks has increased significantly, fiber materials have been sold well, and the price surge has driven the entire PP market to rebound. On the other hand, PP profits have sharply compressed some process losses, and cost support has been strong. However, in the long run, the supply pressure of PP will be great, and strong demand may be difficult to maintain in the long term. It is expected that PP will have downward pressure in the long term, but it is expected to continue to rebound in the short term.
Recurrent epidemics, the demand for masks has increased sharply
As of 24:00 on January 19, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) ) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported that there are currently 1,473 confirmed cases (including 62 severe cases), a total of 82,449 cured and discharged cases, a total of 4,635 deaths, and a total of 88,557 confirmed cases reported.They are imported from my country, and planes full of masks and other supplies leave our country almost every day.
Land, sea, and air freight costs have all risen sharply
According to CCTV financial reports, due to the surge in electricity consumption this winter, coal has become the The power source of the factory is in short supply. Changes in the market supply and demand relationship directly drive the output and price of coal, and the shortage of trucks directly leads to the increase in freight costs.
Industry insiders said that the efficiency is now much better than before, and the freight cost of coal per ton has increased by more than ten yuan.
Electricity consumption has surged this winter. Provinces have adopted “power rationing” measures to limit industrial power consumption. This may reduce chemical production at the end of the year and indirectly promote chemical price increases.
Another big news is that CMA CGM will directly stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe in the next three weeks, weeks 49, 50 and 51 The Asia-Northern Europe route has temporarily suspended bookings, and the European route has basically ended bookings for this year.
In recent months, due to the slow recovery of the global economy, The epidemic situation has rebounded in many countries, and the traditional peak transportation seasons such as Christmas and New Year have arrived, which has led to congestion in many ports in Europe and the United States. Many domestic ports are extremely short of containers.
Under such circumstances, many large shipping companies have imposed congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, container shortage fees and other surcharges.
Following the further surge in freight rates on European and Mediterranean routes last week, data showed that China’s export container transportation market performed stably this week, and transportation demand remained stable. The freight rates in the route market increased, driving the composite index to rise.
Currently, the social inventory of imported meltblown materials is running at a low level. Due to repeated epidemics, blizzard weather, and tight global shipping, there are no new goods coming in, so we are still optimistic about the rise in the future.
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