Overview
The external crude oil price last week was this month In the second week of shock and correction, Brent crude oil stabilized and rebounded slightly last week, with the main Brent 03 contract having a weekly increase of 0.38%. U.S. oil still pulled back slightly last week, with the main WTI 03 contract falling by 0.29% on a weekly basis. The main contract of SC crude oil 2103 still pulled back sharply last week, with a weekly decline of 2.09%. The domestic epidemic situation has partially counterattacked, and the number of new cases in the UK in a single day has continued to fall. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 25.41 million, and the number of deaths exceeded 425,000. India and Brazil rank second and third in cumulative confirmed cases. Pay attention to vaccine progress and the domestic epidemic counterattack in winter.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA fluctuated and fell to 3,770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and fell sharply to 3,770 yuan/ton last Friday. 3700 yuan/ton. The weekly decline of TA2105’s main contract was 3.57%, and the main processing gap of TA was once again compressed to a relatively low level of 580 last week. TA’s spot processing gap once again compressed to a low level of 388 last week. Changes in supply and demand: Supply and demand have weakened. The 4.5 million-ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade started maintenance at 12.23, restarted on 1.18, produced products on 1.22, and the load is increasing; the 350,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical stopped at 11.3, and restart is pending; the 2.2 million-ton unit of Hanbang Petrochemical stopped for maintenance at 1.7; Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton unit dropped from 1.12 to 50% operation, and returned to normal on 1.16. The PTA load was 82.9%, rising back to the 1.8-day level. Maintenance plan: The 2.2 million-ton PTA unit of Yisheng (Ningbo) is scheduled to be inspected on January 24 and is expected to take two weeks. On the demand side, polyester equipment maintenance increased in mid-to-late January, and the polyester load gradually declined. As of last Thursday, the preliminary calculation of the domestic polyester comprehensive load was 87.4%. Last week, construction starts in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang accelerated their decline. Texturing operations are currently down to 65%, loom operations are currently down to 45%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing factory operations are currently at 49% overall. External crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range last week, with the PX-NPT spread widening to around 170.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 4,655 yuan/ton in the first half of the week. It continued to fall in the second half of the week, falling to 4445 yuan/ton last Friday. Ethylene glycol maintained its backwardation structure during the week, with the main basis fluctuating widely at [100,200], with the basis significantly stronger than last week. As of January 18, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 781,000 tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from the previous period. The arrival forecast last week was only 100,000 tons, and the actual arrival last week was the same as the forecast. Overseas supply is unlikely to recover significantly. Shipments during the week are neutral and may be destocked again this week, and may be destocked to around 700,000 tons by the end of the month. Overseas supply remains low. As of January 21, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 60.06%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 50.08%. Several units are scheduled to restart at the end of the month, and domestic supply is expected to pick up.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
NPT (cfr Japan) fluctuated and fell last week. It fell to US$508.5/ton on Friday. Last week, the external crude oil market experienced a shock correction in the second week of this month. Brent crude oil stabilized and rebounded slightly last week. The main Brent 03 contract had a weekly increase of 0.38%. U.S. oil still pulled back slightly last week, with the main WTI 03 contract falling by 0.29% on a weekly basis. The price difference between naphtha and Brent narrowed during the week, reaching US$101.24 as of last Friday; the price difference between naphtha and WTI had the same trend, reaching around US$124.32 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) fluctuated last week and fell to US$679/ton last Friday. The operating rate of PX China and Asia dropped slightly. The PX-NPT price difference fluctuated and widened last week to around US$170.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 4,655 yuan/ton in the first half of the week, and continued to fall in the second half of the week, falling to 4,445 yuan/ton last Friday; the price near coal-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 4,325 yuan/ton before falling last Friday. to 4250 yuan/ton. Thermal coal spot prices continued to rise, and coal-based coal production losses intensified. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene glycol continues to improve, with a current loss of US$75/ton. The profit of naphtha to ethylene glycol expanded, reaching a profit of US$35/ton last Friday. The price of methanol in East China fluctuated strongly during the week. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route repaired to less than 1,400 yuan/ton during the week and then intensified to more than 1,600 yuan/ton last Friday.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA Domestic Devices: Considering that the actual operating capacity of Dushan Energy’s 2.2 million tons device is 2.5 million tons, its production capacity of 2*2.2 million tons is adjusted to 2*2.5 million tons. Therefore, starting from January 1, 2021, the PTA production capacity base was revised to 57.63 million tons. Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million-ton new device has put in materials but has not yet produced products, and is expected to be included in the production capacity base in February. The 4.5 million-ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade started maintenance at 12.23, restarted on 1.18, produced products on 1.22, and the load is increasing; the 350,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical stopped at 11.3, and restart is pending; the 2.2 million-ton unit of Hanbang Petrochemical stopped for maintenance at 1.7; Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton unit dropped from 1.12 to 50% operation, and returned to normal on 1.16. The PTA load was 82.9%, rising back to the 1.8-day level. Maintenance plan: Yisheng (Ningbo) 2.2 million tons PTA unit is scheduled to be inspected on January 24, and is expected to be maintained on 2.��, this part of the maintenance losses and the increase in the output of the new device are basically offset, depending on the operation of the new device.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: As of January 21, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 60.06% (previous value 62.77%), of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 50.08% (previous value 56.26%). Total domestic supply fell. Fujian Refining and Chemical’s 400,000-ton unit was shut down on 1.12 and restarted on 1.19, and is currently operating well; The 300,000-ton coal unit has been shut down on 1.17 and is scheduled for maintenance for 10 days; the 500,000-ton unit of Fude Energy has been shut down near 1.18 and is expected to restart at the end of the month; the 500,000-ton unit of Zhongke Refining has slightly reduced its load to 80% operation. Maintenance plan: The restart plan of each 200,000-ton unit of Henan Coal Industry (Puyang) and (Yongcheng) is postponed; the 300,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is scheduled to be overhauled for one month on March 25; the 650,000-ton unit of Zhenhai Petrochemical is 50-60% operational and is planned to be in March. 7 days for maintenance. By the end of January, 850,000 tons of equipment will have been restarted. The increase in this part of the restart will be more reflected in February. By 2.17, the corresponding increase in ethylene glycol production will be 35,500 tons.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
2PTA inventory
PTA-converted total social inventory continued to decline last week, among which warehouse receipts continued to rise, and the recovery rate last week Still smaller. PTA factory inventory and polyester factory raw material inventory both decreased slightly. Circulation inventories are still declining.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
As of January 18, East China main port The regional MEG port inventory is approximately 781,000 tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from the previous period. The arrival forecast last week was only 100,000 tons, and the actual arrival last week was the same as the forecast. Overseas supply is unlikely to recover significantly. Shipments during the week are neutral and may be destocked again this week, and may be destocked to around 700,000 tons by the end of the month.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
From January 2021, an additional 250,000 tons of Baihong will be added. At the same time, taking into account that several units with a total of 1.46 million tons have been suspended for a long time or are determined to withdraw from the market, after recalculation, the polyester production capacity base has been revised to 61.99 million tons. In mid-to-late January, maintenance of polyester equipment increased. In addition to the significant increase in the load of polyester short fiber, the load of other polyester products dropped significantly. As of last Thursday, the preliminary calculation of the comprehensive domestic polyester load was 87.4%. The latest polyester maintenance plan (1.22) shows that it was shut down from late January to early February. The equipment started in late February involved a polyester production capacity of 4.045 million tons, and the production loss was approximately 273,800 tons; at the same time, the equipment started before the end of January involved The production capacity is 400,000 tons, and the output has recovered by 33,000 tons; the equipment restarted before mid-February has a production capacity of 1.6 million tons, and the output has recovered by 33,700 tons. Considering the maintenance and restart part comprehensively, the proportion of maintenance and restart production in this part is 4%, and the start of polyester production will drop to 83.4% by February 17. From now until the end of the Spring Festival holiday, polyester maintenance losses correspond to a reduction in PTA demand of 177,000 tons and a reduction in ethylene glycol demand of 73,500 tons.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester inventory and profit
As of last Friday, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factory POY , FDY, and DTY equity inventories are at 9.2, 13.3, and 13 days respectively. Currently, all polyester products are profitable. Polyester staple fiber stocks rebounded slightly to -3 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes remains around 15-20 days. Polyester staple fiber inventory remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; polyester bottle flake inventory has dropped to the above-balanced level for the same period in the past, the same level as the same period in 2018; polyester filament inventory has once again rebounded to the highest level in the past. At present, the filament inventory is under great pressure.
2 Terminal Situation
The decline in downstream construction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang accelerated last week. Texturing operations are currently down to 68% (expected to be 65% on Friday), loom operations are currently down to 46% (expected to be 45% on Friday), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing factory operations are currently at 49% overall.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area have recently fluctuated between 40 and 41 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in December increased significantly by 11% year-on-year, and is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January. From January to December 2020, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$291.21 billion, an increase of 9.5%, of which textile exports were US$153.83 billion, an increase of 29.2%, and clothing exports were US$137.38 billion, a decrease of 6.4%. In December, textile and clothing exports were US$26.2 billion, an increase of 7.2%, of which textile exports were US$12.29 billion, an increase of 12.7%, and clothing exports were US$13.91 billion, an increase of 2.7%.
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2 Terminal situation
Last week, the downstream construction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang accelerated the decline. Texturing operations are currently down to 68% (expected to be 65% on Friday), loom operations are currently down to 46% (expected to be 45% on Friday), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing factory operations are currently at 49% overall.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area have recently fluctuated between 40 and 41 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in December increased significantly by 11% year-on-year, and is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January. From January to December 2020, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$291.21 billion, an increase of 9.5%, of which textile exports were US$153.83 billion, an increase of 29.2%, and clothing exports were US$137.38 billion, a decrease of 6.4%. In December, textile and clothing exports were US$26.2 billion, an increase of 7.2%, of which textile exports were US$12.29 billion, an increase of 12.7%, and clothing exports were US$13.91 billion, an increase of 2.7%. </p
