With various regions advocating “celebrating the New Year on the spot”, the development of the polyester industry before the Spring Festival in 2021 is different from previous years.
On the morning of January 9, the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council held a press conference, advocating that the 2021 Spring Festival be celebrated at the workplace, minimizing the movement of people as much as possible, and strictly controlling the flow of passengers.
On January 20, the National Health Commission officially issued a notice on returning to hometowns during the Spring Festival, requiring those returning home during the Spring Festival to need a nucleic acid negative test certificate within 7 days before returning home. The requirement to return home with a negative test certificate will be implemented after the Spring Festival travel season begins on January 28 and will end after the Spring Festival travel season ends on March 8.
In order for migrant workers to stay in the local area for the New Year, various regions have introduced corresponding incentive policies:
According to current understanding, although leading companies Tongkun and Xinfengming have not announced their Spring Festival maintenance plans. Affected by the stay of non-local employees for the holidays, the existing maintenance scale of the domestic polyester industry in 2021 may be the lowest in recent years. In order to ensure that the company’s non-local employees stay on the job for the holidays, the company has even reduced the original maintenance scale. For example, Tiansheng originally planned to have a maintenance capacity of 600,000 tons/year, but in mid-January, the maintenance scope was reduced to 450,000 tons/year.
Judging from the polyester output and load trends in the 60 days of the twelfth lunar month and the first lunar month in recent years:
Figure 1 The twelfth lunar month and the Spring Festival in 2018-2020 Polyester daily load trend
Based on the current announced maintenance and production reduction plan, it can be seen from the above figure that, The load of the domestic polyester industry in 2021 may remain at the highest level in recent years. According to data, the average domestic polyester load in January 2021 will be 86.68%. According to the current maintenance plan, the average domestic polyester load in February will be It fell to 82.28%, and the overall load is at a relatively high level. Even if Tongkun and Xinfengming announce maintenance, based on a 10% maintenance scale, the average polyester load in February may drop to 80.93%, based on a 20% maintenance scale. , the load will drop to 79.58% in February.
Figure 2 Daily output trend of polyester from the twelfth lunar month and the Spring Festival in 2018-2020
From the output data, The continuous increase in the domestic polyester production capacity base has made the daily output data significantly higher than in previous years. As can be seen from the above figure, the position of the red line representing 2021 is significantly higher than in previous years. According to estimates, domestic polyester output in January will be around 4.68 million tons/year. Judging from the current maintenance scale, the polyester output in February will be 4.03 million tons. If Tongkun Xinfengming’s maintenance scale is 10-20%, the polyester output in February may be 3.90-3.96 million tons. between.
Compared with previous years, high operation and high output have brought about an increase in the inventory pressure of polyester factories in the later period. Taking polyester filament as an example, in order to make the physical inventory of the later factories Inventory pressure is not at an excessively high level. In the past two days, polyester filament yarns have been promoted at discounts for POY and FDY respectively, but with little effect. Equity inventory and physical inventory have not declined significantly. As of yesterday, the mainstream POY factory inventory was between 9-13 Days are around; FDY factory inventories are mostly around 9-15 days; DTY inventories are generally around 12-18 days. There was a slight increase in inventory compared with the same period last week. Once the logistics is shut down in the later period, even if the preferential promotions cause the factory’s equity inventory to decline, the factory’s physical inventory pressure is still gradually accumulating. Although after experiencing the historically high inventory in the first quarter of 2020, the factory has a relatively low tolerance for finished product inventory. It has improved in previous years, but after the continuous accumulation of inventory during the Spring Festival holiday, the pressure on physical inventory is still not optimistic.
Compared with polyester factories, the phenomenon of job retention in texturing and weaving factories is not obvious. Since the beginning of the month, non-local workers in the downstream have begun to return home. Starting this week, the number of non-local workers returning home has gradually increased. At this time, the start-up load has already declined significantly. With the further return of non-local workers, the market start-up will see a sharp decline next week, and the overall market load will drop to the lowest point this year. Judging from the survey, except for a few factories that maintained production during the spring, most other factories will stop production next week.
However, judging from the current situation, the performance of terminal orders after the holiday is relatively average, and the return of non-local workers after the holiday is still a difficult problem that restricts the recovery of terminal demand. According to research, Workers who return to work after the holidays need to undergo at least two nucleic acid tests and undergo health monitoring for at least a week. During this period, they do not go out or gather unless necessary. Only after the test is fully qualified can you enter the site for work, which will further delay the recovery of terminal demand after the Spring Festival.
At this time, the market has optimistic expectations for terminal demand in 2021. After the gradual vaccination of vaccines, the market demand for textiles and clothing will rebound significantly. However, overall, The supply and demand side of the market is still facing certain pressure after the holiday, and the overall mentality may not be overly optimistic. </p
