According to the latest USDA global production, sales and inventory forecast, India’s cotton production in 2020/21 remains at 6.423 million tons. Not only has there been no adjustment for several consecutive months, but it is also completely consistent with the 2019/20 production.
The latest forecast from the Cotton Association of India (CAI) shows that India’s cotton production in 2020/21 will be 35.85 million bales (170 kg/bag), equivalent to about 6.0945 million tons, and the gap with the USDA’s production forecast is 32.85 10,000 tons (approximately 2.35 million packages). Some Indian private ginners and cotton exporters judge that CAI’s estimate is also on the high side. The actual output will be 34-35 million bales (5.78-5.95 million tons), which is more than 500,000 tons lower than the USDA’s latest monthly report forecast. big. CAI, CCI and cotton merchants are generally skeptical of USDA data, believing that it has the purpose of misleading the market, suppressing Indian cotton prices and other purposes.
In 2020/21, most cotton areas in India suffered from long-term rainfall, flooding of pests, and early locust plagues from September to November (Gujarat, the main cotton-producing area, suffered from high temperature and drought in the early stage, and the planting area decreased More than 15%), USDA is unwilling to comply with the call of relevant Indian departments and cotton enterprises to lower the forecast output for the following reasons:
First, it is suppressing US cotton export competitors globally and squeezing out Indian cotton. market share. Under the circumstances of CCI’s large-scale MSP acquisition, the rapid growth of domestic cotton consumption demand in India, and the normal growth of contracts signed by Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam to purchase Indian cotton, the price difference between Indian cotton, Brazilian cotton, and US cotton has continued to narrow in recent years; deliberately Increasing and exaggerating India’s cotton production will help Asian countries slow down the purchase of Indian cotton and buy time for US cotton exports in the past few months;
Second, US cotton exports will continue to make a “Great Leap Forward” this year, which is in line with India’s Cotton is in a completely different situation. According to USDA statistics, as of mid-January, U.S. upland cotton exports in 2020/21 are about to enter an “oversold” rhythm. Coupled with the great benefits of the implementation of the first phase of the China-U.S. trade agreement in 2021, U.S. cotton exports can be described as “a ride.” “No dust, no worries”; Artificially increasing India’s cotton production and increasing export pressure are tantamount to “adding insult to injury”;
Third, USDA statistics and calculations may have insufficient samples, incomplete data, etc. (mainly Affected by the small number of staff, the raging epidemic in India, and poor transportation and communication), India’s cotton output in 2020/21 has been overestimated. From the perspective of understanding, USDA China, India and other production data mainly come from survey data released by government departments of major cotton-producing countries, feedback from some cotton processing enterprises and traders, and model analysis. On-site surveys and surveys are relatively small, or may be biased. </p
