Introduction: At the beginning of 2021, with the strong increase in costs, the PTA market got off to a good start. However, since late January, both supply and demand have gradually come under pressure. Under this situation, where will the PTA market go?
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
The crude oil market is turbulent, and the cost-push role is weakening
The international crude oil market is generally weak in the near term and strong in the far range. Recently, due to factors such as the severe global epidemic situation and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, crude oil prices have been subject to fluctuations and adjustments, and the cost side has weakened in promoting the PTA market. However, in the medium to long term, with the gradual rollout of vaccinations in various countries and the implementation of the U.S. economic stimulus plan, the prospects for the crude oil market are still promising, and support for the PTA market still exists.
New production capacity is released and supply pressure increases
The progress of Fujian Baihong’s new device put into production has been triggering the market Attention, this new 2.5 million-ton device was put into trial operation on January 21 and officially launched on January 24. It is currently operating at half of its production capacity and the other half is planned to be put into production in early February. The release of new production capacity has exacerbated the oversupply situation of PTA, and the overall market mentality has been suppressed as a result. In addition, Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million tons unit has resumed normal operation and will discharge materials on January 22. Although Ningbo Yisheng’s 2 million tons unit has implemented planned maintenance since January 24, the PTA supply side is still gradually under pressure, and the risk of inventory accumulation has intensified.
Polyester terminals undergo centralized maintenance, and terminal demand weakens
In late January, polyester terminals undergo maintenance As the plan gradually became clearer, the overall operating load declined. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the holiday mood in the terminal textile market is getting stronger, the operating rate of weaving factories has been reduced, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively light. However, the production and sales of polyester are weak, the mentality of receiving goods is not strong, and there is a lack of positive support before the holiday. The demand side of PTA is mainly weakening and consolidating.
Taken together: both the supply side and the demand side are under pressure, the contradiction between market supply and demand has further intensified, and it is difficult to get a substantial positive boost before the holiday. PTA The market is more likely to remain volatile and weak. However, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the crude oil market, and the cost-side trend still needs to be paid close attention to. </p
