At the close of trading on January 29, the main contract of PTA rose by 3.12%; the main contract of polyester staple fiber rose by 2.13%; and the main contract of cotton fell by 0.84%. The main contract of ethylene glycol rose nearly 5% and hit a new high since March 2020. As of the close, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 4.84% to 4,659 yuan.
What will be the next trend of PTA, MEG, and polyester staple fiber?
PTA market trend:
PTA basis has strengthened significantly, and some polyester factories have replenished goods. There were few spot transactions, mainly in distant months, and the majority of transactions without pricing. Polyester production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to partially promote shipments, and the average estimate was around 180% by around 3:30 p.m. The production and sales of direct-spun polyester staple fiber products are differentiated, with an average of around 62%.
A PX device that was inspected in the early stage failed to restart normally, and the shutdown continued until the end of February. On the surface, it was a device problem, but behind the scenes, the short-process PX production continued to be in a state of loss. The recovery of overseas transportation supports oil prices. The negative effects brought about by the commissioning of new PTA equipment have been digested, and TA prices will fluctuate higher in the future.
MEG market trend:
MEG spot price has risen sharply, market transactions are active, and it is actively affected by traders’ buying in the afternoon , the spot price chased up to around 4635 yuan/ton, and the spot basis strengthened to 140-150 yuan/ton level. In terms of the US dollar, the center of gravity of MEG’s external market rose sharply, and cargo negotiations reached around US$598-603/ton in the afternoon.
As the Spring Festival approaches, ethylene oxide sales enter the off-season. At present, among domestic installations, Fujian Refining and Chemical, Far East United Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou and other installations all have EO switch back to MEG. Action, according to CCF statistics, the total daily production increase of several major units involving ethylene glycol is around 850-1050 tons/day. We will continue to follow up on further increases in other units in the future. In addition, Yangzi BASF and Zhongke Refining and Chemical also have plans to slightly increase the ethylene glycol load starting from February.
A 200,000-ton/year syngas-to-ethylene glycol phase I unit located in Yongcheng, Henan, is expected to produce products in the near future. The unit was previously shut down in mid-November.
A 50,000-ton/year MEG unit in the northwest has postponed its restart plan in early February. The specific start-up time is to be determined. This website will continue to follow up.
A 750,000-ton/year MEG unit in Zhejiang is currently operating at around 80% capacity, and will be gradually upgraded to full-load operation in the near future. The estimated duration is around 1-2 weeks. Follow-up attention will be paid to its ethylene balance.
Polyester staple fiber market trend:
Polyester staple fiber factory production and sales increased yesterday, and most of them were good . As of 15:30 that day, the overall production and sales of the factory were 223.46%, an increase of 158.76% from the previous trading day. Looking at the specific values: 230%, 333%, 450%, 15%, 70%, 40%, 200%, 70%, 200%, 100%, 100%.
The overall performance of polyester staple fiber prices this month is relatively strong. Specifically, at the beginning of the month, supported by the continued rise in oil, PTA and ethylene glycol were relatively strong. Some downstream customers of polyester staple fiber concentrated on stocking up. Market production and sales were relatively good, and prices also rose significantly. Moreover, due to the continued negative value of corporate inventories , so prices continued to remain strong during the month.
However, due to the relatively abundant downstream stocking, buyers began to resist the high-priced supply of short fiber. The market production and sales continued to be light in the middle to late period, and the market price will definitely fall. Moreover, due to the upcoming holiday in the downstream, In order to avoid the risk of inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, short fiber companies began to offer price promotions, which dragged down the market price to a certain extent; however, due to the large number of oversold companies and very solid cost support, the market price generally resisted the decline.
The polyester staple fiber market is expected to rise within a narrow range in February. In terms of raw materials, oil support is expected to be solid, forming certain support for PTA and ethylene glycol. In particular, the spot supply of ethylene glycol is expected to remain tight, and cost support is expected to be narrow and strong; polyester staple fiber companies are more oversold before the holiday, and Downstream yarn mills can order more orders until mid-March, and the fundamentals are optimistic. Market participants are still optimistic about the post-holiday market expectations; however, considering the current relatively ample room for spot processing fees, and the news that downstream raw material stocks are relatively abundant, the market may be restricted. Room for upside. Taken together, it is expected that the short fiber market may rise within a narrow range in February, and the national benchmark price may fluctuate between 6,200-6,500 yuan/ton. </p
