Overview
External crude oil prices rose sharply in the first week of January, and then fluctuated weakly in the next three weeks. The monthly increase of the main Brent 04 contract was 6.51%, which was slightly narrower than that in December. The monthly increase of the main contract of WTI 03 reached 7.39%, and the increase of U.S. oil was basically the same as that in December, and the overall upward trend did not change. The main contract of SC crude oil 2103 rose sharply at the beginning of the month, then pulled back in the next three weeks, with a monthly increase of 8.24%. The domestic epidemic situation has partially counterattacked and is expected to be controllable. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 26,656,900, and the number of deaths exceeded 450,000. India and Brazil rank second and third in cumulative confirmed cases. Pay attention to vaccine progress and the domestic epidemic counterattack in winter. At present, the vaccination rate in Israel is over 50%, while the vaccination rate in most countries is less than 10%.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA was 3,835 yuan/ton on 1.29, and the monthly price was 3,835 yuan/ton. The average price was 3,768 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 249.3 yuan from the average last month. TA’s spot processing difference was 396 on January 29, and the monthly average spot processing difference was 420, which was significantly narrowed by 121 yuan from the previous month. The monthly increase of the main contract of TA2105 is 5.65%. The main processing difference of TA disk is 597, which is significantly narrower than last month. Changes in supply and demand: Supply and demand have weakened. The 4.5 million-ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade has been shut down for maintenance since 12.23 and resumed around 1.22. The current load is over 90%; the 350,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical has been shut down since 11.3, and restart is pending; the 2.2 million-ton unit of Hanbang Petrochemical has been shut down for maintenance since 1.7; Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton unit started operating at 50% on 1.12, and returned to normal on 1.16; Yisheng (Ningbo)’s 2 million ton PTA unit started maintenance on 1.24 for 2 weeks; the new unit’s Fujian Baihong line with a capacity of 1.25 million tons was put into operation at 1.21, and was out on 1.23 The current load of the product is around 80%, and another line with a capacity of 1.25 million tons is planned to be put into operation on February 3. On the demand side, maintenance of polyester equipment increased in mid-to-late January, and the polyester load gradually declined. As of Friday, the domestic polyester comprehensive load was initially calculated at 82.9%, and it is expected to drop to around 84% in mid-February. Terminal texturing operations are currently down to 26%, loom operations are currently down to 24%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing factory operations are currently at 15% overall. PX supply and demand improved, and the PX-NPT spread widened significantly over the weekend to over 190.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply on 1.29 to 4,260 yuan/ton, and the monthly intra-month average price was approximately 4,520.5 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 547 yuan from the average last month. The current structure of ethylene glycol has reversed within the month, from a contango structure to a backwadation structure. The spot price is relatively strong, and the main basis has strengthened significantly many times during the month, reaching 119 on January 29. As of January 25, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 676,000 tons. Shipments remain on the high side, and destocking may continue this week, and destocking may reach around 600,000 tons by the end of the month. Overseas supply remains low. As of January 28, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 64.60%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 54.92%. Domestic supply is expected to continue to recover. The impact of overseas maintenance is expected to appear in February, and inventory will still accumulate slightly during the Spring Festival.
Cost and Profit
1 Raw material market
The average price of NPT (cfr Japan) in January was US$513/ton, a significant increase of US$63/ton from the average price last month. It was US$512/ton on 1.29th. Crude oil prices rose sharply in the first week of January, but fluctuated weakly in the next three weeks. The monthly increase of the main Brent 04 contract was 6.51%, which was slightly narrower than that in December. The monthly increase of the main contract of WTI 03 reached 7.39%, and the increase of U.S. oil was basically the same as that in December, and the overall upward trend did not change. The average price difference between naphtha and Brent in January was 106.7 US dollars, which was 26 US dollars wider than the average value in the previous month. The price difference at the end of the month was more than 100 US dollars. The average price difference between naphtha and WTI this month was 130 US dollars, which was 26.5 US dollars wider than the average value in December. U.S. dollars, with a price difference of nearly $130 at the end of the month. PX (cfr China) continued to rise sharply in January, with the monthly average price being around US$685, a sharp increase of US$82 from the average price in December. The PX-NPT spread basically fluctuated at a low level during the month. At the end of the month, due to the failure of CICC to restart, supply and demand expectations improved, and the spread widened significantly to above 190 at the end of the month. The average value in January was 172, which was significantly wider than December by $20. The average monthly operating rate of PX China in December was 75.88%, a slight decrease of 0.72% from December; the average monthly operating rate of Asia PX in January was 76.53%, a slight decrease of 0.12% from the previous month. At the end of the month, the restart of the 1.6 million tons unit of Zhongjin Petrochemical was postponed to the end of February due to malfunction. The PX loss increased by about 130,000 tons. The price of PX rose sharply to US$704/ton on January 29.
2 Cost and profit changes
The coal-based load basically remained above 50% in January, and coal-based losses continued to recover. The average cash flow of externally produced ethylene to ethylene glycol in January was -120 US dollars/ton, a significant recovery of 60 US dollars from December. The average monthly cash flow from naphtha to ethylene glycol was US$21, a significant recovery of US$24 from the loss in December. The average cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route in January was 1,474 yuan/ton, a significant recovery from the loss of 397 yuan/ton in December. Cost support weakens.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic equipment: PTA load rebounded sharply by 86.6% last week. The 4.5 million-ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade has resumed operation around 1.22, and the current load is over 90%; the 350,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical has been shut down since 11.3, and restart is pending; the 2.2-million-ton unit of Hanbang Petrochemical 1In the first half of the month, 1.51 million tons were restarted, and in the second half of the month, 4.45 million tons were restarted. Polyester load in February is expected to rebound sharply in the second half of the month, but will still decline slightly in the first half of the month.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester inventory and profit
As of 1.29 , Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factory POY, FDY, and DTY equity inventories are 5.9, 11.4, and 16.1 days respectively. At the end of POY1, the inventory dropped significantly by 3.1 days compared with the end of the previous month. FDY monthly inventory was depleted by 12,000 tons, and DTY monthly inventory accumulated significantly by 53,000 tons. Filament yarn was basically profitable in January, but turned into a loss at 1.28 due to the sharp increase in raw materials and polyester yarn price reduction and promotion to remove inventory. By the end of the month, the loss exceeded 200 yuan. Polyester staple fiber maintains negative inventory, with the inventory on January 29 being -4 days. Staple fiber profits fluctuated within a wide range of 400-700 yuan in January, and were significantly reduced to 427 yuan by the end of the month. Polyester bottle flakes were significantly destocked in January, and the inventory was 10-15 days old at the end of the month. Bottle flakes remained profitable in January, and profits shrank to 120 yuan/ton by the end of the month. The inventory of polyester staple fiber remained at the lowest level for the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester bottle flakes fell to the lowest level for the same period in the past at the end of the month; the inventory of polyester filament was close to the equilibrium level for the same period in the past. Currently, there is a pre-holiday price reduction promotion to remove the inventory, so there is not much pressure on inventory.
2 Terminal Situation
The Spring Festival is approaching, and construction started in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang last week The decline continues to accelerate, and the inventory of raw materials increases. Texturing operations dropped to 26%, loom operations dropped to 24%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing factories overall operations dropped to 15%. In January, the average monthly load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 53.25%, a significant decrease of 31.15% from December 2020; the average monthly load of comprehensive texturing was 66.75%, a significant decrease of 23.65% from December 2020.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area fell to 40 days in early January and then rose again to 41 days, which is still the highest in the same period in the past. level. Transaction volume of China Textile City The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City performed well in December 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 11%. It is expected to increase by nearly 30% in January this year compared with the same period in 2020. It basically entered holiday mode in early February, and the resumption of work may be concentrated in early March. The transaction volume in February may decline year-on-year. </p
