Since October 2020, the equity inventory of polyester staple fiber companies has continued to be negative, and factory maintenance has increased since mid-January 2021. The concentrated stocking of mid-stream and downstream customers at the end of January has aggravated the tight supply situation of companies. In addition, PTA , ethylene glycol has been driven upward by cost support and its own tight spot supply. Entering the first trading day in February, polyester staple fiber futures spot prices have achieved a resonant rise. As of 11:30 a.m., the PF futures 05 contract The closing price was 6,748 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.09%, and the spot benchmark price of polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.42%.
This round of gains may seem sudden, but in fact it is the inevitable result driven by fundamentals.
1. Cost
First of all, in terms of cost, PTA spot circulation continues to be tight, and The support of crude oil continues to be strong, and the recent supply tension of PX has also formed a strong cost support for PTA. Therefore, the rise in the spot price of PTA futures has formed a strong cost support for the polyester market. Ethylene glycol is also obviously supported by costs. At the same time, the lack of imports has led to a tight situation in spot supply. The limited increase in supply in February has also caused the industry to re-examine the current fundamentals. Therefore, under the logic of tight supply and stable demand, , ethylene glycol also showed a strong pattern.
2. Supply and demand
Secondly, from the perspective of supply and demand of short fiber itself, factories have continued to Oversold, the centralized stocking of middlemen and downstream factories at the end of January (January 29) intensified the tension in factories. At present, the number of oversold days of mainstream short fiber manufacturers has reached 40-45 days, which means that even if there is no oversold in the whole of February The pressure on sales and factories will not increase much. Moreover, downstream orders are performing well, and most polyester yarn factory orders can be received by mid-March, so the supply and demand logic is still optimistic.
It can also be clearly seen from the comparison of short fiber prices and inventories in the above figure that since the negative value of short fiber inventories, the market price performance It has been showing a wave-like upward trend.
3. Post-holiday expectations
Looking at post-holiday expectations, the PX supply shortage will continue, especially in February. The tight supply situation is becoming more and more serious, which will form a strong support for PTA. The spot supply of ethylene glycol is also tight in the first quarter. However, more maintenance of polyester factories in February will also limit the room for raw material growth; while polyester staple fiber companies are ahead of the holiday. Sell more and remain optimistic in the context of relatively stable cost support and acceptable orders from downstream spinning mills. Therefore, market participants are still optimistic about the post-holiday market expectations.
Although downstream factories have relatively sufficient raw material stocks, short fiber companies have been oversold for more than January, and the gradual recovery of the Hebei market after the holiday will also drive part of the demand, so the entire 2 -The market in March may still be easy to rise but difficult to fall. Looking at the first half of 2021, we may expect spot prices to rise to the 7,000 yuan/ton mark. </p
