The February global production demand forecast released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) states that with the recovery of global cotton consumption, cotton trade volume will begin to increase.
In 2020/21, global cotton production is expected to be 24.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Cotton production in several major cotton-producing countries and regions has significantly decreased, including the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, West Africa, and Turkey. and Uzbekistan both saw double-digit declines in production. The US cotton output was 3.3 million tons, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, Brazil’s output was 2.65 million tons, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, Pakistan’s output was 890,000 tons, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, Turkey’s output was 656,000 tons, a decrease of 20% year-on-year, and Uzbekistan’s output was a decrease of 20%. %. Production in India and China increased to 6.2 million tons and 5.9 million tons respectively.
In 2020/21, due to a sharp decline in cotton production in some countries that rely on domestic production for cotton consumption, global cotton imports are expected to rebound to 9.3 million tons. As the recovery of the manufacturing industry accelerates and consumer demand recovers, cotton consumption and imports are expected to increase in 2020/21.
Due to the decline in Pakistan’s cotton production, the country’s cotton imports are expected to double in 2020/21. Since the beginning of this year, Pakistan’s cotton imports have increased tenfold. In 2020/21, U.S. cotton exports are expected to be 3.3 million tons. Affected by the first phase of the China-US agreement, US cotton exports increased by 45% year-on-year from August to November 2020, and exports to China increased sixfold. India’s cotton supply is sufficient this year, and exports are expected to increase to more than 1 million tons. Brazilian exports are expected to reach or exceed the previous year’s level. Exports from August to December 2020 increased by 7% year-on-year, and exports to China, Vietnam, Pakistan and Turkey increased by 25-60% year-on-year.
This month, ICAC lowered global cotton production to 24.1 million tons, consumption is expected to be 24 million tons, ending stocks are expected to be 21.1 million tons, and the global inventory-to-consumption ratio is expected to be from 98 % dropped to 88%, and the pressure on cotton prices eased. Vaccination will provide a boost to economic recovery, but whether the vaccination goes smoothly will have the most direct impact on consumer confidence and economic recovery. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.5% in 2021, and China’s economy is expected to grow by 8.1%.
Based on the above situation, ICAC predicts that the average Kotruk A index in 2020/21 will be 73.5 cents/pound. </p