The market before the holiday was less impulsive and more calm. Market opinions gradually became richer. Some continued to be bullish, some were temporarily bearish, and some thought it was range-bound. The author believes that this is a good phenomenon. Only when there is a long-short contradiction can the cotton market have a market. The greater the contradiction, the greater the market. It is difficult to attract funds to participate in a pool of stagnant water. Regarding the recent cotton price trend, the author believes that the short-term pressure callback will not change the long-term bullish trend.
In January, the global new coronavirus continued to spread. According to the latest statistics from the WHO, as of 18:31 on January 28, Central European Time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in the world exceeded 100 million cases, which shows that although countries have begun to administer vaccines, global infection cases have not been effectively contained, and debates have arisen around the safety, effectiveness and distribution of the epidemic. Therefore, it is still difficult to eliminate the adverse impact of vaccines on the global economy in the short term, but in the medium to long term, vaccine supply and injection issues will gradually be resolved, expectations for economic recovery continue to increase, and it is only a matter of time before demand explodes.
The trend of cotton prices in 2020 has a clear watershed. Affected by the epidemic, it fell sharply before April, and started a magnificent upward trend after April 1. During this round of rising prices, there were still constant disagreements. Some were short-sellers, while others were bullish. In the end, cotton prices still rose sharply amid doubts. The current situation is basically the same as last year. The only difference is that the market sentiment is not so pessimistic. The cotton price has reached more than 15,000 yuan/ton, and the average cotton price in 2020 has been higher than that in 2019. Against this background, It is indeed difficult to predict how high cotton prices will go.
The author has previously judged that the process of rising or falling cotton prices is full of ups and downs, but we must be good at grasping the main contradictions that affect cotton price changes, otherwise we must analyze some side effects. , can only be in vain. The epidemic undoubtedly played an extremely important role in this round of rising and falling cotton prices. The epidemic has plunged the global economy into recession. However, as vaccinations accelerate, confirmed cases around the world begin to decline, social restrictions on human beings will gradually be relaxed, and the economy will gradually recover. Therefore, consumption will usher in substantial growth, especially in foreign consumer markets. After pressing the pause button for a year, once it resumes, its intensity cannot be underestimated. Therefore, both domestic and foreign consumer markets will usher in substantial growth in 2021, showing a situation of booming production and sales. </p
