As the valuations of early popular sectors such as liquor and new energy have reached historically high levels, some major funds are eager to find new main directions of attack.
Since the beginning of this year, as the stock prices of Wanhua Chemical and leading private refining and chemical companies have hit new highs, other industry leaders in the chemical sector have also continued to move. Behind the rise in the stock prices of many chemical stocks, institutional seats frequently appeared on the buying side.
Industry insiders believe that as both supply and demand gradually recover after the epidemic, the price increase trend of chemical products is expected to continue. The core reason for the recent sharp price increase of chemical products is that domestic supply makes up for the gap between overseas supply and demand. The transmission of the main line of “price increase” from fundamentals to stock prices is often realized more quickly during the “spring restlessness” of A-shares.
The chemical sector has increased by nearly 13% during the year
Data shows that as of the close of trading on February 3, The cumulative growth rate of Shenwan Chemical Industry this year has reached 12.76%, ranking second among all first-level industries. The chemical fiber sector under the segment has soared 36.82% year-to-date, ranking first among all secondary industries.
In terms of individual stocks, it can be clearly seen that in this round of chemical stock prices this year, funds are obviously more inclined to buy leading companies in the industry, which is in line with A-share The trend of “taking big for beauty” under institutionalization.
In order of the latest total market value, among the top ten market value companies in the chemical industry, only Sinopec and Enjie have seen their share prices fall this year, while the remaining eight stocks have all gained, and The average increase was as high as 33.51%, significantly outperforming the overall increase in the chemical industry.
Large market capitalization chemical stocks have performed well during the year
As a leading global chemical company, Wanhua Chemical has performed well this year The bullish trend of the previous two years continued at the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of the year, Wanhua Chemical’s stock price has continued to hit record highs, with a cumulative increase of 35.31%. The company’s latest market value has risen to 386.8 billion yuan.
Daily trend of Wanhua Chemical
The performance forecast recently released by Wanhua Chemical further boosted the company’s stock price and also reflected The chemical industry has been booming since the fourth quarter of last year. The company announced that it expects to achieve a net profit of 9.6 billion yuan to 10.1 billion yuan in 2020, a decrease of 5% to basically the same as the same period last year.
It is worth noting that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, Wanhua Chemical only achieved a net profit of 5.349 billion yuan in the first three quarters of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 32.28%. According to the performance forecast, the company’s single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter of last year was as high as 4.25 billion to 4.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91% to 113%.
Wanhua Chemical stated that at the end of the third quarter of last year, with the rapid improvement of downstream demand in the global chemical industry and rapid growth in demand in some regions, the company’s main product sales increased and sales prices increased, making Net profit attributable to parent companies is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter.
In addition, the two major chemical fiber leaders, Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, have experienced cumulative increases of 53.74% and 43.25% respectively since the beginning of this year. Baofeng Energy, the leader in coal-based new materials, rose 58.38% during the year, and Longman Baili, the leader in titanium dioxide, rose 39.49%.
Institutional funds continue to increase investment
Looking through the Dragon and Tiger list announced by the exchange, many chemical stocks Since the beginning of this year, institutions have continued to appear on the buying side.
Dongfang Shenghong’s business covers the integration of printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, and refining. The company’s stock price has reached multiple daily limits this year, with a cumulative increase of 54.01%. Due to the large short-term gains, Dongfang Shenghong has been published by the exchange on 11 dragon and tiger lists so far this year, and all institutional seats are absent from these 11 lists.
For example, on January 6th, Oriental Shenghong achieved its first daily limit of the year. On that day, the Dragon and Tiger list showed that 3 institutions appeared in the top five buying positions, and the total buying amount More than 48 million yuan.
Dongfang Shenghong’s Dragon and Tiger List on January 6th
Another example is Dongfang Shenghong’s Dragon and Tiger List on February 1st In Hong’s latest Dragon and Tiger list, two institutional seats appeared on the buying side, with a total purchase of 62.7864 million yuan; at the same time, three institutional seats appeared on the selling side, with a total selling of 224 million yuan. It can be seen that as the stock price rises rapidly, the game of institutional funds in the stock also becomes more intense.
After Rongsheng Petrochemical disclosed its performance forecast at the end of January, the stock price posted three consecutive positive gains in the first three trading days of this month, with a cumulative increase of more than 15%, and the increase during the year expanded to 43.25%. The company’s latest market value rose to 267 billion yuan.
Among them, on February 1, Rongsheng Petrochemical’s stock price hit the daily limit. The after-hours dragon and tiger list showed that 3 institutions appeared in the top five buying positions, with the total buying amount Reaching 235 million yuan, accounting for 11% of the total stock trading volume that day.
Rongsheng Petrochemical February 1 Dragon and Tiger List
In addition, Levima Xinke, Sailun Tire, Satellite Petrochemical, China In the Dragon and Tiger lists disclosed by chemical stocks such as Tai Chemical this year, institutional seats also appeared on the buying side.
The overseas supply and demand gap drives the recovery of chemical products
A few days ago, the strategy team of GF Securities jointly analyzed eight major industries Teacher’s reportThe report discusses how to layout the “price increase” market in 2021, which focuses on investment opportunities in the chemical fiber sector.
GF Securities believes that domestic supply making up the gap between overseas supply and demand is the core reason for the sharp price increase of chemical products. Whether the price increase can be sustained depends on the recovery of overseas demand.
In the first three quarters of 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, most overseas countries were in a state of lockdown, terminal clothing consumption was suppressed, the demand side of chemical fiber products collapsed, prices continued to fall, and inventory accumulation occurred. serious. Since late September last year, with the improvement of terminal orders, the operating rate of the downstream weaving end of chemical fiber has rebounded significantly. The fundamentals of chemical fiber have strengthened, prices have rebounded rapidly, and inventory has been successfully eliminated.
Looking forward to 2021, when the COVID-19 epidemic is brought under control due to vaccines, demand for textile clothing is expected to recover, and there is great room for price increases in textile raw materials. In terms of textile and clothing inventories, U.S. retailers’ inventories have dropped significantly, and wholesalers’ inventories have maintained negative growth. In the next year, replenishment of inventories in all aspects of the U.S. trade is likely to occur; in terms of raw material inventories, domestic polyester filament, spandex, and viscose staple fiber inventories are at low levels. , little pressure on price. We are optimistic about the double-click effect of demand and inventory after recovery. </p