Although the pressure on the domestic short fiber supply side has been relatively low recently, and domestic short fiber inventories continue to remain negative, which has significantly boosted short fiber prices, rising risk aversion in the market before the Spring Festival will limit the rise in short fiber futures prices.
At the end of January 2021, driven by the continuous rise in raw material prices, short fiber futures prices continued to rise. As of the close on February 3, the main short fiber futures contract 2105 closed at 6706 yuan/ton. .
Enterprise shutdowns are increasing
Short fiber supply pressure has been small since early December 2020, domestic The number of maintenance plans for polyester equipment is gradually increasing, and the start-up of short fiber production is showing a slow decline. Since the Spring Festival holiday in 2021 is later than in previous years, the weekly short fiber operation rate after entering 2021 is at a high level in the same period in recent years. However, the downward trend in operation before the Spring Festival has not been broken. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, short-fiber companies are gradually suspending production and taking holidays. It is expected that domestic short-fiber production starts will further decline, and there will be less pressure on the supply side. As of the week of January 28, the domestic short fiber weekly operating rate was 80.76%, a decrease of 9.33 percentage points from the previous high, and an increase of 14.3 percentage points from the same period in 2020; the average domestic short fiber weekly operating rate in January was 81.81% , an increase of 9.87 percentage points compared with the same period in 2020.
Market turnover cools down
Short fiber production and sales remain flat. After the New Year’s Day holiday in 2021, due to The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have risen, and short fiber has ushered in a wave of relatively concentrated raw material replenishment. At the same time, short fiber companies have started a new round of oversold conditions, and short fiber inventories have once again entered the negative range. But as usual, after a peak in production and sales, short fiber trading became dull again.
In the last three weeks of January, short fiber trading has cooled down significantly. However, as the short fiber production itself has also shown a downward trend, the negative inventory of short fiber has not improved, but has further deepened. Entering February, short fiber has basically entered the final stage before the Spring Festival, and some cross-provincial logistics have gradually stagnated. It is expected that the negative inventory of domestic short fiber will continue for some time, and the price of short fiber will also be boosted. Data show that as of the week of January 28, the average weekly production and sales rate of short fiber was 48.49%, an increase of 47.23 percentage points from the same period in 2020; the average weekly production and sales rate of domestic short fiber in January was 83.4%, an increase of 25.15 percentage points from the same period in 2020. percentage point. As of the week of January 28, the domestic short fiber inventory days were -11.5 days, a decrease of 5.2 days from the previous week, and a significant decrease of 18.7 days from the same period in 2020.
Short fiber growth is limited, processing gap leaves room for expansion
In January 2021, in international crude oil Driven by the rise in domestic coal prices, the short fiber raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have increased significantly. However, during the same period, the price increase of short fiber failed to keep pace, and the short fiber processing gap was compressed. Compared with raw materials, the supply and demand side of short fiber is better, so there is room for expansion in the later stage of poor processing.
As of February 3, the short fiber spot processing difference was 1366.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 330.63 yuan/ton compared with the same period in 2020; the short fiber futures 2105 contract disk processing difference was 1615.48 Yuan / ton.
To sum up, the short fiber supply pressure before and after the Spring Festival is relatively small, and there is room for further expansion of poor short fiber processing. However, affected by the heightened risk aversion in the market before the Spring Festival, the room for rising short fiber futures prices may be limited. </p