According to the usual practice, the polyester filament market gradually enters a situation of weak supply and demand in the week before the Spring Festival. At the end of the year, polyester filament companies have many promotions to clear their stocks, and the focus of transactions is mostly on the trough within a year. On the eve of the Spring Festival and due to the absence of buyers, polyester filament The filament yarn market also mostly maintains low prices. However, unlike previous years, the polyester filament market in 2021 bucked the trend and rose under the support of the cost side, with prices continuing to rise at the end of the year.
After the Spring Festival, the polyester filament market mainly focuses on the cost side, supply and demand side and changes in the mentality of the industry. At this stage, cost and supply and demand are the strongest driving forces among many influencing factors. The main driving force for the increase in polyester filament prices in the past few days also comes from cost-side support.
PTA↑8.7%, MEG↑9.8%
Nearly The January polymerization cost ↑9.1%, the pressure on polyester filament is not small
As the main raw material of polyester filament, it accounts for 85.5% of its raw material cost, so the price of PTA rises The falling changes have a greater impact on the price of polyester filament. After the New Year’s Day holiday this year, the PTA market spot closing price was 3,675 yuan/ton. In early February, the PTA spot transaction rose to 3,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.7%. Recently, due to the tight supply of PX spot and the continued rebound in oil prices, the price of PTA has increased. Chasing to the 4,200 yuan/ton mark. Ethylene glycol is the raw material for polyester filament production, accounting for 35.5%. Its price trend also has a certain impact on polyester filament. In early January, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market closed at 4,480 yuan/ton, and in early February, the spot price of ethylene glycol closed at 4,480 yuan/ton. It rose to 4920 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.8%.
In the past month, the aggregate cost has increased by 421 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.1%. FDY’s cash flow losses worsened, and most POY varieties gradually lost money in early January. Therefore, due to cost pressure, polyester filament companies completed the last wave of promotions before the holiday and continued to rise at the end of the month.
From the perspective of February as a whole, in terms of PTA, the recent restart of Zhongjin Petrochemical’s 1.6 million tons PX unit was delayed by one month due to failure, and the ACP negotiations were reached in February, superimposing the current PTA The circulating spot is still tight, and the PTA processing range is currently between 360-400 yuan/ton. In terms of ethylene glycol, supply is tight due to the delay in new domestic production capacity and the decline in imports of foreign goods. In the short term, polyester dual raw materials are still supported.
The “three lows and one high” trend of polyester filament yarns has solidified and risen
In addition to cost factors, The influence of the supply and demand side of polyester filament is also particularly critical, which makes polyester filament have the conditions to follow the increase. At the end of January, polyester filament companies mostly carried out year-end promotions, and the destocking effect was obvious. However, since mid-January, the start-up of domestic polyester filament installations has dropped significantly due to factors such as boiler modifications and seasonal maintenance.
Comparison of domestic polyester filament production starts from 2019 to 2021
Domestic polyester filament production started in early January Basically around 88%, polyester production started falling to 72.43% at the end of the month, a decrease of 15.83%. The equipment was overhauled and restarted in early February, and the inventory level is currently at a relatively low level. Polyester filament factory’s current POY inventory is mostly 6-12 days, FDY inventory is mostly 9-14 days, some are about a month higher, DTY inventory is mostly about 14-19 days, the lower inventory is about a week, the overall inventory is mostly In the past ten days, considering that February was in a state of accumulated inventory and factory inventories were under great pressure by the end of February, the supply of polyester filament in February was relatively loose.
Therefore, for polyester filament, low start-up, low inventory, low profit, and high cost also prompt polyester filament to follow the rise of raw materials.
Looking at the entire month of February, Shenghong’s 200,000 tons/year and Xianglu’s 180,000 tons/year polyester filament plants have been gradually restarted in recent times. The Southeast New Materials 400,000 tons/year and Jiangsu Shenjiu 200,000 tons/year polyester filament plants are expected to undergo maintenance, and considering the uncertainty of workers returning to work after the Spring Festival, the start-up of the polyester plants after the Spring Festival may be delayed, and Some factories that have not yet reduced production are under heavy pressure on inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and maintenance may be expected after the holiday. It is expected that polyester filament production will fluctuate around 70% in February, and supply will be loose.
In general, in February, the market price of polyester filament may first increase and then decrease, and there is a narrow decline expected at the end of February. Crude oil is strong, PX supply is tight, and although PTA actual supply increased in February, there are still upward expectations, supporting polyester filament or warm operation driven by the cost side. </p
