U.S. President Biden stated on the 7th that the United States will not lift sanctions on Iran first in order to negotiate with Iran.
On the 7th, CBS broadcast a video clip of Biden’s interview with him on the 5th. Asked whether the United States would first lift sanctions to bring Iran to the negotiating table, Biden denied it. Asked whether Iran must first stop uranium enrichment, Biden nodded in confirmation.
A senior US official later clarified Biden’s statement, saying that Iran must stop its uranium enrichment program that exceeds the limits of the Iran nuclear agreement. The official said that there is no change in the Biden administration’s policy, that is, if Iran returns to its commitments to the Iran nuclear deal, the United States will do the same.
International oil prices have shown a strong trend recently. Brent crude oil broke through the US$60/barrel mark on Monday, hitting an intraday high of US$60.72/barrel. Analysts believe that the improvement of the macro level and market fundamentals has strengthened the market’s confidence in long positions, which is reflected in the recent continuous rise in absolute oil prices at the price level and the continuous widening of price differences in recent months.
Precious metals stopped falling and rebounded on Monday. Analysts believe that the Federal Reserve’s maintenance of a low interest rate environment has supported the price of precious metals, but the recovery of the economy, the rise of the U.S. dollar and the rise in U.S. bond yields are not conducive to the rise of precious metals prices.
International oil prices continue to rise
International oil prices have shown a strong trend recently, with Brent crude oil on Monday It broke through 60 US dollars/barrel and hit an intraday high of 60.72 US dollars/barrel. The current oil price level has returned to the central level of oil price fluctuations in 2019. Zhang Zhengze, an energy analyst at Nanhua Futures, believes that the improvement of the macro level and market fundamentals has strengthened the market’s confidence in long positions, which is reflected in the recent continued rise in absolute oil prices at the price level and the widening of price differences in recent months.
From a supply perspective, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut production by 1 million barrels per day in February and March. Although OPEC+ is “optimistic” about the recovery of the oil market in 2021, it still It is believed that in the uncertain market environment, member countries should continue to work hard to defend the hard-won production reduction results. “This can also be understood to mean that even if expectations of future market demand recovery continue to strengthen, OPEC+ will still be committed to current supply control. Although some market participants believe that as the center of gravity of oil prices rises, OPEC+ member states will continue to limit production. Differences will increase, but we don’t think we will see such changes in the short term,” Zhang Zhengze said. In addition, despite the recovery rise in oil prices, judging from the weekly production of U.S. crude oil, the current production level is still showing a downward trend year-on-year and is roughly the same month-on-month, indicating that U.S. shale oil producers have no intention to increase production, at least for some time. There was limited room for a substantial recovery of shale oil before the quarter.
From the perspective of the epidemic, Zhang Zhengze said that the popularization and promotion of vaccines are also accelerating. The number of new cases globally has dropped sharply from the high in January, and the continuous improvement of the epidemic is also The most direct reflection of the expected improvement in crude oil demand. From a macro level, the US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan is also on the way. Last Friday, the U.S. House and Senate passed budget measures, putting the $1.9 trillion stimulus package on the fast track for approval. According to foreign media reports, even without Republican support, Biden will fully promote the US$1.9 trillion economic stimulus package.
“Overall, there are positive factors in the short-term macro and supply and demand aspects, and there is still strong support for oil prices.” Zhang Zhengze said that although the short-term technical aspect of oil prices has been overbought, There are signs, but the cautiously bullish view remains unchanged, and the long callback strategy can still be implemented. The domestic Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and investors should consider guarding against the risks of the holiday.
Precious metals stopped falling and rebounded
The main Shanghai gold contract opened at 378.80 yuan/gram on Monday and closed at 378.80 yuan/gram. It rose 0.94%, returning to above 380 yuan/gram, and reported at 381 yuan/gram; the main contract of Shanghai Silver opened at 5475 yuan/kg, and closed up 2.42%, at 5583 yuan/kg. In the past 7 trading days, precious metals, especially silver, have experienced a roller coaster market. Affected by the sentiment of “retail investors vs. Wall Street”, the price of COMEX silver once soared to 30.35 US dollars per ounce, a new high in 8 years, followed by speculation. Sentiment fell back, with prices returning to $27 per ounce, a weekly increase of 0.45% last week.
Where will precious metals go in the future? Huarong Rongda Futures researcher Huali said that from a fundamental point of view, with the accelerated vaccination of the new crown vaccine, the epidemic situation in the United States has gradually improved. Currently, the number of new cases in the United States continues to fall, and the number of daily increases has gradually returned to the level of November last year. This To a certain extent, it has increased the market’s expectations for economic recovery. Although the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in January was far lower than expected, this has forced the fiscal rescue policy to be stepped up. The U.S. House of Representatives voted earlier last Friday. The budget resolution approved by the Senate at that time paves the way for Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Spurred by the improvement of the epidemic and the impending fiscal stimulus, the U.S. dollar index continued to rise last week, breaking through 91. At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield also rose to 1.19%. “At present, in addition to the low interest rate environment maintained by the Federal Reserve, the recovery of the economy, the United StatesBoth higher prices and rising U.S. bond yields are not conducive to rising precious metal prices. ” Huali said.
Zheng Hong, senior macro analyst at Zheshang Futures, said that with the continuous advancement of vaccination and the recent boost from Biden’s speech, the market has concerns about the future economy of the United States. Significant improvement in expectations. Since the end of January, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen 15 BP from 1.04% to 1.19%. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index has rebounded sharply from 89.4 to around 91.5, which has exerted some pressure on precious metal prices. However, last week The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in January announced on Friday was lower than market expectations, causing a slight rebound in precious metals in the short term.
In terms of the epidemic, the global new crown epidemic showed marginal relief in February . The number of new confirmed cases every day in the United States has dropped from the peak of 300,000 in early January to the current level of about 120,000. “With the new crown vaccine and prevention and control measures, the epidemic situation in various countries does show signs of improvement, leading to a downward trend in risk aversion . However, at the same time, the emergence of mutated viruses around the world, the increasing death toll, and lower-than-expected non-agricultural data are reminding investors not to be overly optimistic about the epidemic. ” Zheng Hong said.
Huali believes that although the epidemic situation has improved in the short term, it has not completely subsided. Judging from the signals released by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve’s January interest rate meeting, the loose Monetary policy will still be maintained, and policy exit will at least require the subsidence of the epidemic and significant economic recovery. Short-term precious metals have not yet completely entered the downward channel. However, it is worth noting that in terms of market expectations, the market believes that the U.S. economy will be strong in the second quarter. The probability is accelerating upward. The demand for replenishment and the rise in real estate will drive the global economic recovery. At that time, expectations for the withdrawal of monetary easing policies will continue to rise, and rising interest rates and bond yields may once again suppress precious metal prices.
In addition, Zheng Hong believes that we need to pay attention to the progress of Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the near future. According to him, the U.S. Senate passed a budget reconciliation process last weekend, allowing the stimulus plan to be further implemented. . If the budget reconciliation process is enabled, the Senate will vote with a simple majority, which means Biden can throw off the Republicans and force the passage of the new crown relief bill. This may be a major short-term positive for gold.
“Taken together, gold is weak in the short term as it is not supported by fundamentals and risk aversion. In terms of silver, after the WSB hype subsided, it has given up most of its gains and prices have returned to fundamentals again. “Zheng Hong said that for the market outlook, we still need to pay attention to the marginal changes in the new crown epidemic and the further development of the U.S. new crown relief bill.</p
