As for the situation in the United States, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States fell for four consecutive weeks last week but was higher than expected, and applications for emergency unemployment compensation due to the epidemic were close to a new high. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the Fed is committed to promoting employment and keeping monetary policy “patient and accommodative” to support the labor market and help the economy, which still faces challenges. U.S. CPI growth in January was 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations, and 1.4% year-on-year was lower than expectations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged the G7 to increase financial support and promote economic recovery on the 12th.
Xue Na, a commodity analyst at Nanhua Futures, believes that Sino-US relations showed signs of improvement during the holidays, the global COVID-19 epidemic continued to improve, and global uncertainty declined. Judging from the impact of the precious metal sector, gold fell slightly and silver fell slightly. A slight increase. In the future, we mainly need to pay attention to the progress of the U.S. rescue plan, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, etc. It is expected that gold will have insufficient upward momentum, and silver may oscillate strongly as the economy recovers.
As for the non-ferrous metal sector, Dai Gaoce, a commodity analyst at Nanhua Futures, said that the non-ferrous metal sector as a whole is more obviously affected by expectations of inflation and demand recovery. During the holidays, although some overseas traders began to worry about the tightening of funds in the future, But judging from the current stimulus plan and Europe’s policy attitude, the market’s loose attitude will not change until obvious inflation is seen. Copper, aluminum and other varieties with relatively good supply and demand fundamentals in the nonferrous sector still saw significant increases last Friday, and they still responded with a strong trend after the holiday.
In the international crude oil market, during the Spring Festival, international oil prices were relatively strong. As of last Friday, the March 2021 futures settlement price of West Texas Light Oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was US$59.47 per barrel; the Intercontinental Exchange in London The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April 2021 is US$62.43 per barrel.
Tensions in the Middle East have attracted market attention. A spokesman for the Houthi armed forces in Yemen said that they recently used drones to attack Al Abba Airport and King Khalid Air Base in Saudi Arabia. However, on February 12, local time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that starting from February 16, the designation of the Houthi armed terrorist organization in Yemen would be officially revoked.
Li Wanying, a senior energy and chemical analyst at the East China Sea Research Institute, said that the turmoil in the Middle East has triggered market concerns about the stability of crude oil supply. Saudi Arabia has played a vital role in promoting OPEC’s production reduction, and since this year, Saudi Arabia has announced that it will voluntarily contribute 1 million barrels per day of crude oil production, accelerating the repair of the global crude oil market balance sheet. Therefore, we need to continue to pay attention to whether local small-scale conflicts or terrorist attacks will continue to escalate in the future.
Basically, she said, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that in the four weeks as of February 5, 2021, the total demand for U.S. refined oil products averaged 19.509 million barrels per day; The average volume of distillate demand was 7.893 million barrels; the four-week average of distillate demand was 4.157 million barrels, 1.9% higher than the same period last year. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to fall last week, while U.S. gasoline inventories increased and distillate inventories fell during the same period. Relatively speaking, global crude oil demand is still recovering slowly.
“From the perspective of the monthly spread structure, we believe that the degree of backwadation in international oil prices continues to deepen. The market’s good expectations for the effectiveness of the vaccine and the positive fundamentals have simultaneously acted on the recent oil prices. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to be biased in the short term. Strong oscillation. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the actual implementation of the vaccine in the later stage,” she said.
For the energy and chemical sector, Dai Gaoce said that during the holidays, the trend of crude oil showed a trend of first weakening and then strengthening. OPEC’s monthly report slightly lowered the demand growth forecast, but it still showed a relatively optimistic attitude in the long term. . The IEA’s monthly report was negative, which also caused Brent oil prices to return to a low of around US$60 per barrel on the night of the 9th, but rebounded strongly before the weekend. The epidemic situation is also showing clear signs of improvement as the weather gets warmer and vaccinations advance. Currently, refining and processing profits are still acceptable. Refineries are gradually increasing their operations, and demand-side expectations after the holiday are still good. Although profits have increased, OPEC+ has not significantly relaxed its production cuts, and the number of drilling operations in North America has not accelerated. Before this situation changes, crude oil will continue to be strong, and the chemical sector will be supported as a whole.
In addition, he introduced that external rubber also fell first and then rose due to macroeconomic factors. The overall Japanese rubber fell slightly, but the upstream gradually entered the end of rubber tapping, and raw material prices continued to rise. Indonesia There are earthquakes in southern Sumatra, the production area, and we need to be vigilant. The overall demand in the future is expected to be acceptable. It is expected that there will be little room for a post-holiday rubber correction after the macro sentiment stabilizes, so we need to be cautious when chasing short positions. </p
