Introduction: Crude oil and pure benzene rose by around 5% during the holidays. Today, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price increased by 400 yuan/ton to 5,800 yuan/ton. The continued rise in raw materials continues to inject upward momentum into caprolactam. Sinopec’s caprolactam listing price was raised by 500 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, and the spot offer followed suit and rose to around 12,500 yuan/ton. Coupled with the high start-up of downstream polymerization plants supporting the demand for caprolactam, the caprolactam market is expected to continue to rise in the future.
Caprolactam price comparison chart from 2019 to 2021
The domestic commodity market opened sharply today, with styrene futures hitting the daily limit. Sinopec’s pure benzene prices were raised by 400 to 5,800 yuan/ton, Sinopec’s caprolactam prices were raised by 500 to 12,600 yuan/ton, Fujian Shenyuan and Nanjing Oriental caprolactam prices were raised by 300 to 12,700 yuan/ton, and Xuyang caprolactam prices were raised by 300 to 12,500 yuan/ton. The spot price of caprolactam has also been reported to be 12,500 yuan/ton upon delivery.
The main factors affecting the market rise this time are:
The holiday crude oil and pure benzene external market The domestic market has risen sharply after the year.
Pure The reason for the short-term price increase of benzene is the macroeconomic benefits brought by the rise of crude oil and bulk commodities. There are also short-term price increases caused by unplanned shutdowns of overseas units of pure benzene and styrene. In addition, the persistent supply gap of domestic pure benzene from February to April is also the overall psychological expectation of market participants that the supply of pure benzene will tighten in the future and the price will be ready to rise. The positive support for pure benzene in the later period still exists, and there is expected to be room for continued upward movement from late February to March.
Downstream polymerization starts remain high to support caprolactam demand
Comparison of PA6 polymerization starts from 2019 to 2021
During the Spring Festival, the PA6 polymerization operation was maintained at around 74% of the operating load, and for caprolactam Demand remains high. During the Spring Festival, caprolactam factory inventories continued to decline, and the tight supply situation has not improved significantly yet.
With the restart of caprolactam units of Shandong Fangming and Shandong Haili, the caprolactam supply situation may be alleviated in the later period. However, the current low inventory of manufacturers and active downstream production have limited the supply. The small amount of growth has limited constraints on the market.
Forecast of post-holiday market price trends
The favorable and supportive factors for this market rise are concentrated. The commodity market has surged across the board since the opening of the market. The current increase of caprolactam is still lower than the increase of raw material pure benzene, and pure benzene is still expected to continue to rise. , coupled with the good performance of caprolactam supply and demand fundamentals, it is expected that caprolactam will continue to rise in the later period.
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