According to the Agricultural Outlook Forum report released by the United States Department of Agriculture on February 19, global cotton consumption will exceed production in 2021/22, and global ending stocks are expected to drop by 3.2 million bales. In 2021/22, the harvested area in some countries around the world is expected to increase, and cotton production is expected to increase by 4.7%. As the global economy recovers from last year’s severe downturn, cotton consumption will once again grow above the long-term average. China’s textile cotton consumption is expected to increase, and cotton import demand will remain at a high level in 2020/21. As global cotton stocks continue to decline, the average Kotruk A index is expected to be 90 cents/pound, an increase of 7 cents year-on-year.
According to the analysis of the outlook report, global cotton production in 2021/22 is expected to reach 119.5 million bales, lower than the recent highs in 2017 and 2019, but higher than the average of the past five years. The global cotton harvest area is expected to increase by about 3%, with growth mainly coming from the United States and West Africa. The harvest area in India and China is expected to decrease slightly.
U.S. cotton production is expected to increase to 17.5 million bales in 2021/22, due to a slight decrease in sown area and an increase in harvested area due to a drop in rejection rates from the high level in 2020/21. U.S. domestic cotton consumption increased slightly year-on-year, exports were essentially flat, and ending stocks are expected to decline for the second consecutive year. India’s cotton output is expected to be 28.5 million bales, a decrease of 0.5 million bales year-on-year, China’s output is 27.5 million bales, a decrease of 1.5 million bales year-on-year, Pakistan’s output is 5.8 million bales, an increase of 1.3 million bales year-on-year, and West Africa’s output is 5.3 million bales, an increase of 0.5 million bales year-on-year. .
Currently, it is still a long time before the 2021/22 cotton production in the southern hemisphere, and output prediction is difficult. Brazil’s cotton planting area is expected to remain stable, yields are expected to return to normal, and output is expected to increase. The weather in Australia continues to improve, the cotton planting area is expected to continue to increase, and the output is expected to increase.
In 2021/22, global cotton consumption is expected to increase by 4.1% year-on-year, reaching 122 million bales. If this growth is achieved, global cotton consumption will increase by 19 million bales from the low point in 2019/20, an increase of 19%, but still below the historical high four years ago and below the historical long-term average.
In January, the International Monetary Fund estimated that global GDP growth would be 5.5% and 4.2% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, higher than the 2014-2019 average of 3.5%. However, global economic growth depends largely on the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines around the world. At the same time, the economic stimulus measures taken by some countries and cooperation between countries are also important factors. In 2021/22, China’s cotton consumption is expected to be 40.5 million bales, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, an increase higher than the global average. India’s consumption is expected to be 26 million packages, an increase of 1.7 million packages year-on-year.
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