Overview
External crude oil prices rose sharply during the Spring Festival, and then began a slight correction the day after the holiday. The main Brent crude oil contract exceeded US$65/ton during the week, and fell back to around US$63 last Friday. The main WTI contract exceeded US$62/ton during the week and then fell back to around US$59 last Friday. The main contract of SC crude oil 2104 rose sharply on the first day after the holiday, following the external market, and followed the correction on the second day. The impact of winter storms in North America continues this week, and energy supply in Texas, USA, is disrupted. In the short term, we will pay attention to the weather conditions in North America and the restart of overseas equipment.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA rose sharply to 4,115 yuan/ton. Costs pushed up the price, with the main contract of TA2105 rising by 3.72% on a weekly basis. TA’s main processing gap continued to narrow, narrowing to a low of 495 as of Friday. TA’s spot processing gap continued to shrink to a low of 314 yuan this week. Changes in supply and demand: Both supply and demand have picked up. Pay attention to the forced shutdown due to continued compression of processing differences. The 400,000-ton unit of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical has been shut down since 2.20, and its restart is pending (the unit is an early-stage unit and has been shut down at a loss near a processing difference of 300). Yisheng Hainan’s 2-million-ton unit will be parked near the site on February 11, and its restart is pending. The new device, Fujian Baihong, has a line with a production capacity of 1.25 million tons, feeding materials at 1.21, and producing products at 1.23. The other line with a production capacity of 1.25 million tons has produced products before the festival, and the current overall load is 80-90%. The PTA load rebounded to 85.6% last Friday. On the demand side, the polyester load rebounded to 84.5% last Friday, and the load recovery may be higher than expected. Terminals have resumed work smoothly after the holiday, and restarts are expected to be more intensive this week. The start-up of texturing has rebounded to 24%, the start-up of looms has rebounded to 18%, the dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have started to start sporadically, the start-up is estimated at 8%, and the start-up of looms in South China has rebounded to 12%. Crude oil rose first and then fell in the external market, and the PX-NPT processing difference widened to 206 US dollars.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 5355 Yuan/ton; prices near coal production rose sharply to 4,700 yuan/ton. As of February 18, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 683,000 tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. During the Spring Festival period (February 8 to February 17), the 10-day arrival forecast totaled 244,000 tons, and the actual arrival volume was 142,000 tons. From February 18 to February 21, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be around 80,000 tons. Shipments gradually picked up after the holidays, and there was almost no inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Due to the extremely cold weather in North America, many units in the United States were parked intensively, which is expected to last for 1-2 weeks. In March, there is still a significant depletion of inventory. Satellite petrochemicals will be put into production in late March. Inventory pressure may rebound significantly from April to May. As of February 19, the overall domestic ethylene glycol load has rebounded to around 71.74% (68.58% before the holiday), of which the coal-to-ethylene glycol load is 60.27% (53.76% before the holiday). Domestic supply continues to rebound. New coal-based equipment is expected to contribute 142,000 tons from March to May, and satellite petrochemicals is expected to contribute 225,000 tons from April to May.
Cost and Profit
1 Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, PX
NPT (cfr Japan) continued to rise following crude oil last week, rising to 573.5 last Friday USD/ton. External crude oil prices rose sharply during the Spring Festival, and then began a slight correction on the second day after the holiday. The main Brent crude oil contract exceeded US$65/ton during the week, and fell back to around US$63 last Friday. The main WTI contract exceeded US$62/ton during the week and then fell back to around US$59 on Friday. The naphtha-Brent price gap fluctuated and widened after the holiday, reaching around US$111 last Friday; the naphtha-WTI price gap reached around US$138 last Friday. CICC Petrochemical’s 1.6 million-ton unit restarted on February 18, and Vietnam’s 700,000-ton unit was unexpectedly shut down. The overall supply recovery was limited. The price of PX (cfr China) rose sharply last week following crude oil, rising to US$779/ton last Friday. The load of PX China rebounded sharply, the operating rate in Asia dropped slightly, and the PX-NPT price difference continued to widen to US$206 after the holiday.
2 Cost and profit changes
The spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 5,355 yuan/ton after the holiday, boosted by the centralized shutdown of extreme weather equipment in North America; prices near coal-based prices rose sharply to 4,700 yuan/ton. Thermal coal prices in Inner Mongolia continue to fall, and the complete cost of the synthesis gas to ethylene glycol unit can basically be covered. The profit from external production of ethylene to ethylene glycol has expanded, and the current profit is US$87/ton. The internal market of ethylene glycol turned a profit, with a profit of 555 yuan/ton as of last Friday. The profit of naphtha to ethylene glycol expanded, and the profit reached US$91/ton last Friday. The price difference between methanol in East China and North China narrowed slightly, and the overall price fluctuated within a narrow range. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route has significantly recovered to around 460 yuan/ton.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic equipment: Since one line of Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million-ton PTA unit was put into operation on January 21, and the other line is scheduled to be put into operation in early February, the PTA production capacity of this network will be adjusted to 60.13 million tons starting from February 2021. After the holiday, the PTA load rebounded to 85.6%. Yangzi Petrochemical’s 350,000-ton unit has been shut down since 11.3, and restart is pending; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million-ton unit has been shut down since 1.7.�� Overhaul; Yisheng Ningbo 2 million tons will be inspected for 2 weeks from 1.24, and will return to normal around February 7; Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical’s 400,000 tons unit will be shut down from 2.20, and restart is pending (this device is an early device, with a processing difference of 300 and will be shut down at a loss) ). One line of the new facility, Fujian Baihong, feeds 1.25 million tons of materials at 1.21, produces products at 1.23, and the other half produces products at around 2.7. The overall load is 80% to 90%.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Domestic installations of ethylene glycol: The total domestic supply continues to rebound. As of February 19, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 71.74% (68.58% before the holiday), of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol is 60.27% (53.76% before the holiday). The load of Zhongke Refining and Inner Mongolia Yankuang has increased significantly; the 50,000-ton unit in Duzishan, Xinjiang has restarted normally, which was previously shut down for maintenance in early January; the 200,000-ton/year unit of Henan Energy (Puyang) has released products on February 20 , the load is still increasing. Both phases of Henan Energy (Yongcheng) units are operating at full capacity. Maintenance plan: Qianxi Coal Chemical Industry’s 300,000-ton/year unit plans to shut down for maintenance for 30 days in March; Xinhang Energy’s 400,000-ton unit will undergo small-line maintenance starting from 2.19.
New equipment production plan: 4 sets of new coal-based equipment totaling 1.24 million tons will be put into operation from March to May, with an expected output contribution of 142,000 tons. Satellite Petrochemical is expected to start production in March It will be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the output contribution from April to May is expected to reach 225,000 tons.
Overseas installations: Affected by the extremely cold weather in North America, the U.S. installations have been significantly shut down, which is expected to last for 1-2 weeks. South Asia’s 828,000-ton/year MEG new device will be shut down near February 15, and the shutdown time is expected to be around two weeks; Lotte’s 700,000-ton device will be shut down on February 17 due to weather, and the shutdown time is expected to be around one week; MEGlobal’s 750,000-ton device is expected to be shut down for one week ; The restart time of the sasol 280,000-ton unit and the indorama 340,000-ton unit is to be determined. The Morvarid 50-ton unit was shut down for maintenance in early January, and the start-up time was postponed to early March; Iran’s Farsa 400,000-ton/year MEG unit was shut down for maintenance in late January, with preliminary plans to restart in mid-to-early March; Saudi Arabia’s Sharq2# 450,000-ton/year The MEG unit is currently restarting; a 910,000-ton/year MEG unit in Saudi Arabia is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on February 1, and the maintenance time is expected to be around three weeks; Taiwan’s Nanya 2# 360,000-ton/year unit is scheduled to be put into operation before next Monday Restart; Kuwait Dow’s No. 1 530,000 tons/year device plans to shut down for maintenance in March, which is expected to take 20 days.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
2PTA inventory
PTA’s total social inventory is still significantly accumulated. Last week, warehouse receipts were 1.94 million tons, and raw material inventories totaled 4.21 million tons. The recovery in warehouse receipts was limited, and the recovery in circulating inventory was relatively large.
3 Ethylene Glycol Import and Port Inventory
As of February 18, East China Main Port The regional MEG port inventory is approximately 683,000 tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. During the Spring Festival period (February 8 to February 17), the 10-day arrival forecast totaled 244,000 tons, and the actual arrival volume was 142,000 tons. From February 18 to February 21, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be around 80,000 tons. Shipments gradually picked up after the holidays, and there was almost no inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Due to the extremely cold weather in North America, many units in the United States were parked intensively, which is expected to last for 1-2 weeks. In March, there is still a significant depletion of inventory. Satellite petrochemicals will be put into production in late March. Inventory pressure may rebound significantly from April to May.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
Starting from February 2021, the polyester production capacity base will be revised upward to 62.49 million tons, adding 250,000 tons of Hengyi Haining (supporting direct-spun polyester filament) and 250,000 tons of Taizhou Sanwei (supporting slices, used in the production of polyester industrial yarn). In early February, the polyester load mostly fluctuated in the range of 82-83%. This week, the polyester maintenance equipment was gradually heated up and restarted, and the load was gradually recovering. Last Friday, the polyester comprehensive load was initially calculated at 84.5%. The latest polyester maintenance plan (2.19) shows that the polyester production capacity of the devices that have been restarted due to early shutdown and restarting is 4.418 million tons, and the production capacity of the devices that will be restarted in late February is 3.302 million tons. The load is expected to rebound rapidly
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data Source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of last Friday, the equity inventories of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were 7.9, 18.4 and 23.5 days respectively. At present, all polyester products are profitable, among which the profits of short fiber products have greatly widened to more than 1,000 yuan after the holiday. Polyester staple fiber stocks rebounded slightly to -1.5 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes has rebounded to around 15-20 days. Polyester staple fiber inventory remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; polyester bottle flakes and polyester filament equity inventories are still at a balanced low level for the same period in the past, and there is still little pressure on polyester inventory after the holiday.
2 Terminal Situation
Partial production in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is resuming after the holiday, and it is expected to restart this week. concentrated. The start-up of texturing has rebounded to 24%, the start-up of looms has rebounded to 18%, the dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have started to start sporadically, the start-up is estimated at 8%, and the start-up of looms in South China has rebounded to 12%.
The product was released on February 20, and the load is still being improved
Sample enterprise gray cloth in Shengze area After the inventory days fell to 35 days in a pulse on 2.2, it picked up again on 2.3 and is still the highest level for the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City increased significantly by 27% in January compared with the same period last year. The China Textile City experienced a holiday during the Spring Festival. The market opened on February 19 with a small amount of transactions. It is expected that the transaction volume of the China Textile City will rebound in a V-shape this year.
The equity inventories of POY, FDY and DTY in wire factories are 7.9, 18.4 and 23.5 days respectively. At present, all polyester products are profitable, among which the profits of short fiber products have greatly widened to more than 1,000 yuan after the holiday. Polyester staple fiber stocks rebounded slightly to -1.5 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes has rebounded to around 15-20 days. Polyester staple fiber inventory remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; polyester bottle flakes and polyester filament equity inventories are still at a balanced low level for the same period in the past, and there is still little pressure on polyester inventory after the holiday.
2 Terminal Situation
Partial production in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is resuming after the holiday, and it is expected to restart this week. concentrated. The start-up of texturing has rebounded to 24%, the start-up of looms has rebounded to 18%, the dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have started to start sporadically, the start-up is estimated at 8%, and the start-up of looms in South China has rebounded to 12%.
The product was released on February 20, and the load is still being improved
Sample enterprise gray cloth in Shengze area After the inventory days fell to 35 days in a pulse on 2.2, it picked up again on 2.3 and is still the highest level for the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City increased significantly by 27% in January compared with the same period last year. The China Textile City experienced a holiday during the Spring Festival. The market opened on February 19 with a small amount of transactions. It is expected that the transaction volume of the China Textile City will rebound in a V-shape this year. </p
