After the Spring Festival, the prices of dozens of chemical raw materials such as bisphenol A, n-butanol, neopentyl glycol, isobutyraldehyde, etc. soared, up to 1,000 yuan per ton, or even more than 50%. Textile product prices are also following closely behind. Polyester raw materials have been strengthening all the way, and polyester filament has continued to rise. It can be said that it has reached a state of one price per day. Upstream companies require that customers cancel the monthly settlement method and place orders based on real-time quotations; downstream companies Companies are complaining a lot, and while they are still hesitating to stock up on goods, prices have already risen again!
In fact, the textile raw material market has already seen a price increase a year ago. Cotton, polyester, polyester filament staple fiber, etc. have been rising all the way, which has ushered in a boom in the market. Small orgasm. After the Spring Festival, the “tide of price increases” did not stop and surged again. What caused this price increase? How long will it last? This has become the issue that every textile person is most concerned about right now.
Textile raw materials have risen too fast
According to statistics from Shandong Longzhong Information Technology Co., Ltd., as of 2 On March 23, the price of many textile raw materials increased by more than 50%. The current price of polyamide 66 chips increased by 90.81% compared with the trough in 2020; the price of viscose staple fiber also increased by 85.3% compared with the trough last year.
Since the market opened on February 18 (the seventh day of the lunar month), the price of polyester filament has also continued to rise: On February 18, The price increase ranged from 100-400 yuan/ton; on February 23, the price increase rate was as high as 300-500 yuan/ton. After a few days of increase, the price increase of polyester filament has reached nearly 1,000 yuan/ton.
Spandex rises by 5,000 yuan a day
However, this and spandex It’s nothing in comparison. Some people in the industry said that the daily increase in spandex has reached about 5,000 yuan, from 28,000 yuan/ton half a year ago to 46,000 yuan/ton now. The price of spandex is like a helicopter. After the Spring Festival, the price of spandex continued to rise. From February 15 to February 20, the prices of major spandex manufacturers increased by more than 20%. Compared with the price low in August 2020, the price of spandex has now increased by nearly 80%.
Gray fabric prices have returned from lows
In addition to rising raw material prices, many gray fabric companies have also The price of gray cloth has been increased. They all said that due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, end market demand has shrunk significantly, and the price of polyester filament has also fallen to a historical low. Therefore, the price of gray fabrics in the textile market has been falling. The previous price of gray fabrics was too low. .
Some companies said that fabric price increases are generally around 0.1 to 0.2 yuan/meter, but there are also price increases of 1 to 1.5 yuan/meter. However, what is worrying is that the demand side is not the direct driver of this fabric price increase, but the cost of raw materials has increased. For this reason, textile companies are quite worried about the subsequent price trend.
What is the reason?
Regarding this wave of price increases, Lu Qian, an analyst at Shandong Longzhong Information Technology Co., Ltd., analyzed: “Recently, the reason for the increase in raw material market prices is first of all the impact of the epidemic in 2020. All sectors have rebounded under the expectation that the epidemic will be controlled. Secondly, there are expectations for inflation in 2021 and the rise in commodity prices driven by the decline of the US dollar index.”
There are many more. Industry insiders analyze that crude oil has driven the rise in raw materials. International oil prices soared during the Spring Festival because the temperature in most parts of the United States plummeted due to the unprecedented Arctic cold wave on February 15, which plunged the energy market into chaos. Large-scale rolling blackouts occurred in cities such as Dallas and Houston, and the surge in heating demand pushed the power grid to its limit. Subzero temperatures in the Midland region of Texas have reduced U.S. shale gas production by 1 million barrels per day, pushing oil prices to a new high in nearly 13 months. U.S. oil has exceeded $60 per barrel. The cold weather may also trigger a demand for fuel. Panic buying, heating oil futures rose more than 2%, natural gas rose more than 3%.
However, some experts said that the increase in textile raw materials after the holidays is a supplementary increase after the sharp rise in crude oil. However, the cold wave in the United States will eventually pass, and oil prices will lack the power to surge. . It is also difficult to have a sustained promotion effect on our textile raw materials, and raw material prices will eventually return to stability.
The cotton market rose across the board
Some people in the industry also said that the rise in crude oil cannot fully explain the decline in the raw material market. Volatility, because not only chemical fiber products, but also the cotton market has risen across the board. On February 4, the settlement price of Zhengmian CF105 was 15,135 yuan, an increase of 230 yuan; on February 5, it increased by another 355 yuan. The increase for two consecutive days has exceeded 500 yuan, and the price is approaching a high. Recently, stimulated by various good news and after a large increase in positions, the price of Zheng cotton has now risen to the highest value in recent years.
As for the rise in cotton prices, some analysts believe that it is more closely related to cotton supply and demand. The just-released ICAC report shows that global cotton production has been reduced by nearly 9%, and global cotton trade is expected to increase to 9.3 million tons in 2021. In addition, previous US Department of Agriculture global cotton supply and demand reports have also continued to reduce cotton production and inventories. In addition to the stimulation brought by the improvement of global supply and demand pattern,There is also news that the United States will suspend tariffs on nearly $370 billion of Chinese goods, which has also boosted the confidence of domestic participants. In addition, from a macro perspective in my country, the national “14th Five-Year Plan” policy has been introduced, which can be summarized as “stabilizing planting, ensuring supply, and focusing on cotton seeds”, which highlights the importance of cotton. It is expected that the cotton planting area will not increase significantly. decrease and will remain stable. Under the premise of gradual increase in demand, China’s cotton supply remains unchanged. As the price of chemical fibers as a substitute for cotton is close to the price of cotton, the rise in cotton prices seems to have become more reasonable.
What’s the future?
In fact, the commodity market has been booming recently, and one of the most critical reasons is that the global economy is showing signs of recovery.
Affected by the optimism brought about by the COVID-19 vaccination, the market’s expectations for China and the United States to support the global economic recovery in 2021 are increasing. A Reuters survey shows that most economists are more confident in the U.S. economic recovery due to the impact of the $1.9 trillion rescue plan proposed by the Biden administration. Economists surveyed generally believe that the expected growth rate of the U.S. economy will reach 4.7% and 3.5% respectively this year and next, higher than the previously expected 4.0% and 3.3%.
At the same time, the steady operation of China’s economy is also an important factor supporting the prices of basic metals and energy commodities. Regarding China’s economic trends in 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that China is expected to achieve a growth rate of 8.1% this year. This is also seen as a key factor in commodity markets.
Supply and demand factors are another key perspective for understanding this round of commodity prices. In terms of the crude oil market, which is closely related to the textile industry, the International Energy Agency stated in its February market report that after experiencing the shock caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the global crude oil supply and demand situation will continue to restore balance. The International Energy Agency has raised its global oil production forecast, believing that the daily supply increase from key oil-producing countries such as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia is expected to rise to 830,000 barrels from the previous 540,000 barrels. At the same time, global oil demand was 96.4 million barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day from previous expectations. Although the International Energy Agency has raised its production forecast and lowered its demand forecast, it still believes that the gradually improving global economy will promote an accelerated decline in global oil inventories. This means that crude oil demand will exceed growing production in the second half of this year, and the excess inventory accumulated since the outbreak will decline rapidly.
Based on the global economic situation and China’s macroeconomic policies, how do you view the future growth of textile raw materials? Lv Qian, an analyst at Shandong Longzhong Information Technology Co., Ltd., said that due to the inflationary effect of the festival, the textile raw material market has experienced a rapid rise. The weaving link has not yet concentrated on resuming work and transactions, and there is still a certain amount of weaving inventory in the market that has not yet been circulated. In the first month, physical goods Afterwards, the flow of terminal orders and the increase in printing and dyeing orders may drive the price of textile raw materials to continue to rise. However, if the terminal link does not match the crazy increase in the raw material market, the subsequent market may temporarily stabilize, and the adjustment time may be concentrated in April to May. The United States and Britain Developed countries such as Japan are striving for inflation, and the economy and commodities are on the decline. Fiber raw materials may rise again after a narrow adjustment. </p
