After a wide adjustment last Friday, today Zheng cotton has reached the 16,500 yuan/ton mark again. There has been controversy in the industry about the trend of cotton prices. As cotton prices go higher and higher, the debate becomes more and more serious. fierce. The author believes that contradiction is the driving force for the development of things. To judge the trend of cotton prices, it is necessary to find out where the contradictions between the long and short parties are concentrated. Only by grasping the core contradictions can we get to the point.
2020 has passed, cotton prices have risen by more than 70%, and the global central bank’s massive release of water has created this epic market. It will be difficult to continue to create such brilliant results in 2021. A big crisis comes with a big opportunity. With the rapid injection of vaccines on a large scale in 2021, the main contradiction that caused the big crisis is weakening, and the world is gradually returning to normal. Under such conditions, the market will naturally be limited, although it is contrary to the economy. Common sense in theory, but that’s the reality.
Back to cotton, cotton has exceeded the important mark of 17,000 yuan/ton. No one can accurately predict where it will rise in the future, but one thing is certain, the increase this year will definitely be smaller than last year. Because the macroeconomic environment has changed, future inflation expectations will limit the continued sharp rise in prices, but it is not believed that prices will necessarily fall. Considering cotton alone, according to current market data, the supply side remains stable. As long as there are no abnormalities in sowing and harvesting, cotton output will not be a problem. Especially in recent years, under the guarantee of Xinjiang cotton target price, cotton planting area has remained stable all year round. . Demand is likely to grow significantly this year. With widespread vaccination, global economic production and consumption will gradually stabilize and pick up, and naturally cotton prices will also benefit and rise. Therefore, the short-term correction will not change the mid-term upward trend. At least in the first half of the year, cotton prices still have upward momentum and room. </p
