On March 1, the polyester staple fiber 2105 contract closed at 8,046 yuan/ton, down 372 yuan/ton, or 4.42%, leading the decline in polyester. Judging from the fundamentals of polyester staple fiber, the turning point has not yet appeared, but the price has fallen sharply. The main reasons are: first, there is sufficient downstream stocking, and the willingness to purchase high-priced goods has weakened; second, some arbitrageurs have taken profits. The market has seen a small number of traders selling goods and spinning mills selling raw materials.
01 The pressure on the supply side is still not great despite the negative inventory of short fiber factories
As the price of short fiber picks up, upstream and downstream profits are reduced, and short fiber processing Profits have expanded significantly, from 500 yuan/ton at the end of January to nearly 1,000 yuan/ton on Friday. The oversold phenomenon in short fiber factories has become more obvious before the holiday. The average inventory of short fiber factories is currently oversold for 17.3 days. Orders from mainstream manufacturers will not be received until early April. Therefore, there is currently no pressure on the inventory of short fiber factories.
In the context of good processing fee space and negative inventory, staple fiber factories have a high willingness to produce, and the start-up load of polyester staple fiber has recovered relatively quickly, with the start-up load returning to around 90% in February. Due to the serious oversold phenomenon in factories, there is no pressure on the supply side for the time being, but the issue of relatively sufficient stocking by middlemen and downstream has gradually become the focus.
02 The downstream stocking is relatively sufficient, but the terminal order is not clear
At present, the raw material inventory and finished product inventory of the spinning mill are relatively high, and the raw material reserve of the spinning mill is relatively high. Most of them are currently reserved until the end of March or early April, less around mid-March, and more around 2 months. The cash flow of pure polyester yarn has gradually expanded, currently averaging 700-800 yuan/ton. Although downstream polyester yarn mills currently have large reserves of raw materials, their yarn profits are still acceptable and their ability to accept high-priced raw materials is strong. Therefore, in the short term Cost transmission from fiber to yarn is smooth.
It is still unclear whether the transmission from the cotton mills to the downstream is smooth. At present, the inventories of finished products in downstream yarn mills are relatively low. Most companies’ orders are scheduled to mid-to-late March. Moreover, the current processing fee space of yarn mills is good, and there will not be too much resale of raw materials. Therefore, in the future, we need to pay attention to the low-priced supply of goods from middlemen. When is digestion completed? At present, cloth factories are following the increase, but the transaction volume has not increased. The market is paying attention to the terminal orders in March.
03 Summary
There is a phenomenon of profit-taking by bulls in the short-term market. However, based on the background of good costs and acceptable supply and demand, the short fiber spot market may still remain stable. There is no turning point, and the overall upward trend may remain unchanged for the time being; however, the medium and long-term market still needs to be wary of the impact of sales by middlemen on the market.
In the long term, the new polyester staple fiber production capacity in 2021 will be limited, and the supply increase will be relatively limited. Moreover, European and American textile and clothing inventories are currently at a low level. Textile and clothing exports in 2020 are not optimistic. With the recovery of overseas economies, we may enter an active replenishment cycle in the later period, which may bring about a wave of recovery. </p
