Recently, the polyester raw material market has been rising and falling rapidly. On the 2nd, it hit the limit across the board with lightning speed.
At the closing of the domestic futures market on March 2, most commodity futures fell, with PTA falling by the limit, ethylene glycol falling by more than 6%, and crude oil falling by more than 4%.
Review of the futures market on the 2nd:
Crude oil: On the 2nd, the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center crude oil futures contract fluctuated downward during the day, with active trading and reduced positions. The main 2104 contract of domestic crude oil futures opened at 407.3 yuan and closed at 387.1 yuan by the end of the day, down 4.94% or 20.1 yuan; the settlement price was 397.2 yuan; the trading volume was 155,349 lots; the position was 31,410 lots, and the daily position decreased by 3,445 lots.
Polyester raw materials:
PTA: On March 2, the PTA05 contract reached 4,574 yuan/ton. Before the end of February, under the influence of both cost and supply and demand, PTA hit the daily limit twice. But in March, in just a few days, PTA took a turn for the worse and fell sharply.
Ethylene glycol: At the beginning of March, the trend of ethylene glycol was mixed. The market opened sharply at the beginning of the month, with the futures price reaching a high of 6,280, and the spot price rising to a high of 6,750 yuan/ton. However, the market began to fall sharply in the afternoon. On the 2nd, the market opened in a downward trend, and the spot price retreated all the way, from the opening level of around 6,300 yuan/ton to the current level of 6,120 yuan/ton.
Polyester staple fiber: The price of staple fiber fell below 8,000 yuan/ton for three consecutive days. On the 2nd, the polyester staple fiber factory had almost no production and sales. As of 15:00 that day, the overall production and sales of the factory were at 6.77%. , down 5.86% from the previous trading day. Looking at the specific values: 25%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 10%, 0%, 0%, 0%.
After a surge in prices, the prices of polyester raw materials began to gradually fall back in early March. The specific reasons for the decline are mainly Which ones?
1. The OPEC+ meeting is about to begin, and oil prices have suffered the longest consecutive decline this year
Crude oil is the most source product of the polyester industry chain. Due to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, oil prices have suffered the longest consecutive decline this year. Futures prices fell below US$60 per barrel in New York, marking the fourth consecutive decline. Three days of declines would mark the longest losing streak since December. Oil prices were off to their strongest ever start to the year before recent losses, ahead of OPEC+ meeting on Thursday to decide on supply curbs.
2. Affected by PX inventory and processing fees, the cost side of polyester raw materials has weakened
From From a fundamental point of view, PTA supply and demand improved in the short term in March. Equipment maintenance increased under low profits. At the same time, the overall support for the downstream polyester segment is strong. The peak demand season in the later period will still support prices. The short-term cost decline has caused the center of gravity of PTA prices to shift downward, while the short-term improvement in supply and demand still supports prices. In the long term, the pressure on prices caused by high inventory and high production needs to be considered. At present, PTA is still mainly cost-oriented, and the subsequent trend will still follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices.
Ethylene glycol, which is also a polyester raw material, has also shown a large adjustment range recently. The reason is mainly due to changes in supply and demand. Due to previous estimates of low domestic construction and low imports, ethylene glycol may continue to be destocked before May. With the rise in ethylene glycol prices, ethylene glycol profits have surged, superimposed EO profits have weakened with seasonality, and both oil-based and coal-based start-ups have seen a sharp upward trend. In addition, Satellite Petrochemical, Shaanxi Weihe Binzhou Chemical, etc. The new device is scheduled to be commissioned in March, and domestic supply pressure may increase significantly in the future.
3. The peak season is ahead of schedule and the market enthusiasm has dropped back
</o ; Downstream customers generally find it difficult to accept large increases in a short period of time, mainly because most of the orders in their hands are from a year ago. This part of the quotation was also based on the market price a year ago, but the current increase has basically been eaten up. All profits.
In general, after a wave of surge, it entered a state of decline. From the overall market situation, for Although 2020 was ravaged by the epidemic, the start of 2021 is still full of vitality. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver and silver, some textile bosses said that it is still difficult to determine whether the market will be good or bad in March. The editor wants to say, On the one hand, we should grasp the short-term market situation, but also look forward to the long-term market trend, such as crude oil, the most source product of the polyester industry chain. On the other hand, in the unpredictable textile market, do not be confused by the current market situation and should be cautious. How wonderful! </p
