In recent weeks, the continued rise in U.S. bond yields has “scared” global markets. As U.S. bond yields gradually fell this week, market sentiment changed again. Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed lower. As of early morning today, the Dow fell 0.46%, the Nasdaq fell 1.69%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.81%.
International oil prices fell by more than 1%, and U.S. oil fell below the $60/barrel mark. According to reports, OPEC+ is expected to agree to increase production this week in an effort to cool rapidly rising crude oil prices. It is reported that there is a general view within the organization that the market can absorb additional supply. While the usual divisions remain (i.e. Saudi caution and Russia eager to ease supply), all parties are prepared to increase production. That could put the group on track to achieve most of its planned 1.5 million barrels per day increase in output. The plan will be discussed on Thursday. According to insiders, Russia has always advocated an increase in production by 500,000 barrels per day, and most other member states also believe that this plan should be promoted. Saudi Arabia is on track to withdraw additional production cuts starting in April, but it is still debating internally whether to withdraw the cuts within a month or longer. As of early morning today, WTI April crude oil futures closed down $0.89, or 1.47%, at $59.75 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for April closed down $0.99, or 1.55%, at $62.70 per barrel.
LME non-ferrous metal varieties surged, with Lun Aluminum rising nearly 5%. Analysts believe that the falling US dollar, tight supply, and growing demand are the main reasons for the rise in nonferrous metal varieties. As of the close this morning, LME aluminum rose by 4.93%, LME copper rose by 2.64%, LME zinc rose by 2.09%, and LME nickel rose by 0.56%.
A shares are dangerously close to 3,500 points, Guo Shuqing warns speculation House owners
Celebrate the Year of the Ox happily and celebrate the Lantern Festival with tears in their eyes. “Although the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 42 points on Monday, it fell by 42 points on Tuesday. For those who choose the right stocks, one rise and one fall has no impact. For me, who has been short in the year, In the following trading days, most of the time, the market is closed to eat noodles. When the market opens and closes, tens of thousands of dollars are gone. When the market opens and closes, tens of thousands of dollars are gone again. For small retail investors, it is very frustrating to lose. It’s broken…” an investor complained bitterly to the reporter.
“The news that Hong Kong does not rule out the possibility of further increasing stamp duty has caused a sharp plunge in Hong Kong stocks and has also had a certain impact on A-share market sentiment.” said He Hui, a macro researcher at Zhonghui Futures.
It is reported that on March 2, the Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong SAR Government, Paul Chan Mo-po, said that the Hong Kong stock transaction tax is only a small part of the cost for high-frequency traders and is not levied at this stage. Plans for dividend tax and sales tax do not rule out the possibility of further increases in stamp duty. At the same time, he said that the increase in stamp duty will not affect the competitiveness of the Hong Kong stock market and that Hong Kong is conducting research on special purpose acquisition companies (SPAC).
As of Tuesday’s close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3508.59 points, a decrease of 1.21%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14751.12 points, a decrease of 0.71%; the Small and Medium Enterprises Index closed at 9948.32 points, a decrease of 0.29%; The GEM index reported 2966.89 points, a decrease of 0.93%; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index reported 1352.04 points, a decrease of 0.45%.
“Many people buy houses not for living, but for investment or speculation. This is very dangerous.” On March 2, a press conference was held at the State Council Information Office On the Internet, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, issued a warning to real estate speculators.
At the press conference, Guo Shuqing also mentioned that risks in the banking industry and insurance industry have shifted from rapid divergence to gradual convergence, and a number of major problems and hidden dangers are “precise “Defuse bombs”, firmly guarding the bottom line of preventing systemic risks.
Among them, the financial leverage ratio has dropped significantly, and the blind expansion of financial assets has been fundamentally reversed. From 2017 to 2020, the average annual growth rates of total assets in the banking and insurance industries were 8.3% and 11.4% respectively, which was roughly only half of the average annual growth rate from 2009 to 2016. The proportion of interbank assets idling within the financial system has dropped significantly.
The identification and disposal of non-performing assets in the banking industry has been greatly advanced. From 2017 to 2020, a total of 8.8 trillion yuan of non-performing loans were disposed of, exceeding the total of the previous 12 years. Shadow banking has been dismantled in an orderly manner, and its scale has dropped by about 20 trillion yuan from its historical peak.
Guo Shuqing pointed out that financial crimes have been severely punished, the risks of illegal financial groups have been gradually resolved, a large number of illegal fund-raising cases have been dealt with in an orderly manner, and the Internet financial risk situation has fundamentally improved.
“Combined with the previous statements of senior management on the real estate and stock markets, investors’ concerns about market liquidity are actually inseparable from senior management’s concerns about the bursting of overseas stock market bubbles, especially in the United States. This means that before the US stock market bubble bursts, China may continue to maintain a neutral monetary policy.” said Zhou Zhiyun, a macro researcher at Zhongda Futures.
Han Yinglang, a macro researcher at Everbright Futures, believes that changes in interest rates have always been an important factor affecting capital risk preferences. After A-shares have risen for two consecutive years, there are relatively obvious differences between some indexes and industries. Valuations are on the high side, and rising interest rates will put pressure on valuations in these industries. Recently, some stocks that have continued to grow strongly over the past two years haveThe maintenance was originally planned in early March, but due to the sharp rise in ethylene glycol prices, the maintenance was postponed. In addition, new devices such as Satellite Petrochemical and Shaanxi Weihe Binzhou Chemical also have test-run plans in March. The number of new domestic ethylene glycol production capacities in 2021 will still be large, and the increase in the supply side will suppress the upward trend of ethylene glycol.
“At present, the spot end of ethylene glycol is still tight and the basis is still strong. Imports are expected to decrease from March to April, and there are still expectations of destocking. Downstream polyester Profits are good, the operating rate remains high, and the long-term view of bargain hunting is maintained in the mid-term of the 05 contract.” said Song Yang, head of energy and chemical industry of Galaxy Futures.
It is worth noting that the main PTA futures contract closed down to the limit yesterday. As the most important commodity futures in the industrial chain, PTA has a complete product line and a unified structure, including crude oil, naphtha, PX/BZ, PTA, PET and downstream weaving. Therefore, which stage of the entire market the current PTA rise is in is the main content that investors, producers, and consumers are most concerned about.
Xie Wen, senior analyst at Zhongda Futures, believes that the recent sharp rise in PTA prices is the result of upstream and downstream resonance. Data shows that from November 6, 2020 to February 10, 2021, the continuous price of WTI crude oil futures rose from US$35.5/barrel to US$58.5/barrel during the same period, an increase of about 64.5%, ranking first in the chemical industry. Its naphtha price rose from US$368/ton to US$551/ton, an increase of 49.7%, and its PX price rose from US$517/ton to US$745/ton, an increase of 44%. In the same range of the entire chemical products, the price of PTA rose from 3,350 yuan/ton to 4,140 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 800 yuan/ton, an increase of about 25%. Related products such as ethylene glycol increased by 21%, and staple fiber increased by 21%. %, asphalt rose by 23%, styrene rose by 18%, methanol rose by about 10%, etc. Through data comparison, PTA is the commodity that follows the price of raw materials most strongly compared to other chemicals. In addition, compared with the upstream growth, the increase in the entire price of PTA is due to the increase in its cost end from the polyester chain. From a valuation perspective, it is still undervalued.
“In fact, the price of PTA is driven by the increase in the price of PX at the cost end, which is a passive increase.” Xie Wen believes that because PTA production capacity increased by 6 million tons in the first quarter, PX New production capacity is concentrated after June. Therefore, the price elasticity of PTA in the first quarter is closely related to PX.
Xie Wen believes that the weekly operating rate of PTA has declined, and the storage speed has continued to decline; in the past two weeks, the operating load of downstream polyester has increased by 4% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year. It is difficult for PX and PTA processing fees to rise, PTA maintenance volume continues to rise, and the logic of cost support has not yet been broken. Recently, the boosting effect of PX prices on PTA prices has been weakened due to the adjustment of crude oil prices. After crude oil prices stabilize, the operating rate will decrease and the demand for polyester will be better, which may once again boost the price of PTA. With the supply of crude oil being tight, the crack spread spread being good, and the epidemic slowing down and demand recovering expected, the bullish judgment will still be maintained in the future. Therefore, if the price of crude oil does not differ much from expectations, the probability of PTA prices continuing to rise after adjustments is in place is high.
“From March to April, PTA equipment faced a maintenance plan totaling 20 million tons, covering nearly 10 production companies and 13 sets of production equipment. From the spot market Judging from the transaction situation, the strengthening of the basis is also extremely obvious.” Song Yang believes that polyester production and sales as well as transactions in China Textile City have fallen, polyester raw material inventories are relatively high, concerns about negative feedback from downstream have increased, and the cost driver that supported the rise of PTA in the early stage And the margin of supply and demand has weakened, and PTA prices have experienced a sharp correction in the short term. However, looking at the entire industrial chain structure, PTA’s own supply is beginning to show a tight situation, coupled with strong upstream support and favorable downstream support, therefore, the current rise in PTA is still in a reasonable state, and the healthy conduction of the industrial chain is the biggest cornerstone of market development. </p
