“Since April 1, 2020, in less than a year, the main May contract price of U.S. cotton has risen from 48.35 cents/pound to a maximum of 95.6 cents/pound. During the same time period, Zheng Cotton The main May contract futures price has risen from 10,090 yuan/ton to a maximum of 17,080 yuan/ton. A friend of mine who has been investing in cotton futures for a long time has achieved more than 5-fold growth in funds based on cotton futures alone. His main investment experience Yes – for a variety like cotton with insufficient production and demand, when the market price appears below the production cost line, we must step in without hesitation, hold it for a long time and add positions in turns.” Zhang, a cotton purchaser in Shihezi City, Xinjiang Kui told a reporter from Futures Daily that cotton prices have risen and have remained at a high level for a long time, which has stimulated the enthusiasm of cotton farmers to diversify cotton in the new year. According to a reporter from Futures Daily, Xinjiang, Hebei, Hubei and other places are currently at the peak stage of spring preparations. Cotton farmers have increased their investment in agricultural inputs, and cotton farmers in some producing areas have also expanded cotton planting areas.
According to Yan Xu, deputy general manager of Yanshi Dehai Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase steadily in the new year. First, since the launch of new cotton in 2020, the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang has been rising. High cotton prices have brought high returns, which has increased the enthusiasm of cotton farmers for planting, dispelled the idea of some cotton farmers to switch to other crops, and benefited the total cotton planting area. of stability. Second, before the start of cotton planting in the new year, the Xinjiang Corps and some local institutions have introduced a number of measures and policies to improve the quality of cotton planting, the level of improved varieties, and expand the planting area, effectively guiding the cotton farmers’ planting willingness. , which is conducive to the increase of cotton planting area. Third, judging from the planting habits of cotton farmers, Xinjiang Corps and cotton farmers in northern Xinjiang prefer to grow cotton. Although there are some uncertainties in the cotton planting area in Kashgar and other places in southern Xinjiang, the impact on the total area is limited.
“In the new year, the Xinjiang Corps and relevant local agencies will pay more attention to the promotion of ‘one master and two pairs’ of cotton seeds. It is expected that the level of improved seeds and uniformity of cotton planting in the new year will be greatly improved, and the level of cotton planting will be greatly improved. The planting quality will lay a solid foundation for the comprehensive improvement of cotton quality in the new year.” Yan Xu said.
Fu Bin, deputy director of COFCO Futures Research Institute, said that from the analysis of the main factors responsible for the continuous rise in cotton prices in the past year, the continued improvement in downstream demand has provided strong support. At present, the domestic textile market has sufficient orders and smooth sales. Enterprises are actively purchasing raw materials and are enthusiastic about restocking, which continues to boost cotton prices.
According to a reporter from Futures Daily, as of now, the domestic 2020/2021 seed cotton purchase and lint sales are nearing completion, and most ginners have stopped processing. Coupled with the strong market demand, so Commercial stocks in the cotton market fell for the first time in the year. At the same time, the oscillating upward trend in international cotton prices has increased the cost of imported cotton in my country.
“At present, there is basically no seed cotton in the hands of cotton farmers in northern Xinjiang, and a small number of ginners still have some inventory. The purchase period in Kashgar in southern Xinjiang has been extended, and some cotton farmers still have seed cotton in their hands. Local ginners The factory has not completely stopped processing. However, everyone’s attention has shifted to new cotton planting, and land rents have begun to rise in some places.” Yan Xu said.
According to the latest data released by the China Cotton Association, my country’s cotton consumption in 2020/2021 is expected to be 8.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; import volume is 2.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 46.9%; ending stocks Approximately 8.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; output was 5.92 million tons, a slight increase year-on-year.
Fu Bin believes that the progress of domestic new cotton sales in 2020/2021 may be faster than that of the previous year. For example, in January 2021, domestic cotton prices continued to rise, stimulating cotton farmers to actively sell. As of January 31, the national cotton sales progress was 99.06%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the average cotton sales price was 6.7 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 14.33%, and a month-on-month increase of 3.08%. Looking at different regions, Xinjiang cotton sales have ended, and the progress of mainland cotton sales has exceeded 90%, both faster than the same period last year. </p
