On March 2 (Tuesday), PTA followed the high international oil price and closed the market down to the limit. The main PTA2105 contract closed at 4574. We believe that PTA pricing consists of two parts: cost and processing fee. There are too many PTA maintenance plans in March, which may boost PTA processing fees in stages. However, under the large cycle of overcapacity, there is limited room for continued improvement in processing fees; the cost side has recently been affected by OPEC+’s increase in production. weakened due to the expected impact. Overall, the absolute price of PTA will still follow the trend of cost-end oil prices. According to our calculations, at the level of Brent crude oil of 60~65 US dollars/barrel, a processing fee of US$250/ton will be given to PX and a processing fee of 500 yuan/ton for PTA. , the theoretical valuation of PTA runs at 4300-4500 yuan/ton.
1. Cost side: PX’s upward impulse energy is insufficient due to weak oil prices
Crude oil pulled back from high levels, Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting guidelines in the short term. Since February, affected by Saudi Arabia’s additional production cuts, the decline in crude oil production due to extremely cold weather in the United States, and the continued recovery of demand, crude oil supply and demand have rapidly improved, and international oil prices have continued to rise. In March, focus will be placed on the OPEC+ production reduction meeting guidelines. Currently, the market expects that Saudi Arabia will cancel an additional 1 million barrels/day of production cuts at this production reduction meeting, and that OPEC+ will collectively increase production by 500,000 barrels/day. Due to the recent improvement in relations between the United States and the Middle East, potential supply increases from Iran, Venezuela, etc. continue to provide Crude oil supply side is under pressure. On the demand side, crude oil demand continues to improve due to the gradual rollout of vaccines. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices will continue their short-term correction due to the expected increase in production at the oil-producing countries meeting on March 4 (this Thursday); in the medium term, pay attention to the guidance of this OPEC+ meeting.
The PX-NAP spread is facing a correction, and PX may weaken in the short term. As of March 1, the price of PX fell to US$873.67/ton, and the price of PX-NAP fell to US$271/ton, down nearly US$10/ton from the previous trading day. Regarding the market outlook, we believe that the PX-NAP price difference is facing a correction, coupled with the short-term weak consolidation of crude oil, the PX price will weaken in stages. From the supply side, the current domestic PX operating rate has rebounded to 82.6%, which is at a high level for the same period in the past; the Asian PX operating rate has rebounded to 77.5%, which is at a neutral level for the same period over the past years. Although Qingdao Lidong and Shanghai Petrochemical have maintenance plans in March, the PX units of Fuhai Chuang and Zhongjin Petrochemical have resumed operation, and PX output is expected to increase steadily in March. From the demand side, downstream PTA has many maintenance plans from March to April, and PX demand is expected to suffer losses. In summary, PX supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the corresponding PX-NAP processing fees will face a correction. Against the background of short-term weak adjustments in international oil prices, PX prices may weaken.
2. Supply side: Pay attention to the expected fulfillment of PTA maintenance from March to April
3~ There are many PTA maintenance plans in April, but attention needs to be paid to the degree of fulfillment. As of March 2, the PTA operating rate was 87.13%, which was at a relatively high level for the same period in previous years. Since February, PX prices have risen sharply, PTA processing fees have been reduced to around 300 yuan/ton, and the market has continued to release expectations for the PTA factory’s maintenance plan from March to April. Judging from the maintenance volume, the overall maintenance volume reached 19.65 million tons (including stopped devices). Judging from the new device commissioning plan, Honggang Petrochemical’s new 2.5 million tons/year PTA unit is currently in operation, and Yisheng New Materials’ 3.3 million tons/year PTA unit is also expected to be put into operation in April. If the expected maintenance of PTA from March to April can be fulfilled, the pressure of new PTA installations can be hedged in stages. However, after the maintenance is completed, PTA output will continue to hit new highs. Therefore, regarding the effect of maintenance, we believe that the PTA processing fee may be restored to a level of 400-500 yuan/ton in stages. After the maintenance is completed, the processing fee will still fall back to around 300-400 yuan/ton, maintaining high processing fees. The difficulty is great.
3. Demand side: Polyester operating rate will rise to 90%-95% within the month
Polyester operating rate It has rebounded to 89% and is expected to run smoothly between 90% and 95% within the month. Since the post-holiday period, based on optimistic expectations for the recovery of the end-use textile and apparel industry and the increase in raw material costs, polyester product quotations have continued to rise. Driven by the atmosphere of buying up rather than buying down, the downstream stocking and speculative stocking have increased, and polyester factories have Inventories have dropped to low levels, and corporate production profits have also shown significant recovery. As of February 25, the inventory of polyester filament DTY, POY, and FDY finished products was 19 days, 9 days, and 11.5 days, and the inventory of polyester staple fiber was -17.3 days, both at historical lows. The company has no inventory pressure and is actively raising costs. It is expected that The operating rate is expected to return to a high of 95% within the month.
4. Inventory: There may be destocking in the short term but the long-term accumulation trend remains unchanged
PTA deposit in March~April Inventories are expected, but the long-term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged, and the focus is on the inventory structure. According to Zhongpu statistics, as of February 26, PTA social inventory was 3.8835 million tons. From March to April, if the PTA maintenance is fulfilled as scheduled, the corresponding PTA social inventory will usher in a phased decline. After the maintenance is completed, the social inventory will continue to rise. From the inventory structure� Currently, the proportion of inventory in the futures market to social inventory is still high, and the liquidity in the spot market is tight. If subsequent maintenance is further realized, spot liquidity may be further tightened in the short term.
5. Summary and operational suggestions
Judging from the market trend, the recent high correction of crude oil has As a result, the sentiment in the chemical sector was poor, long funds reduced their positions and left the market, and PTA futures prices fell back from highs. From a fundamental perspective, under the maintenance plan, the periodic improvement in PTA supply and demand margins from March to April is expected to remain unchanged. Therefore, crude oil and financial sentiment have dominated PTA futures prices in the near future. After calculation, if Brent oil is around 60 US dollars/barrel, and a processing fee of 500 yuan/ton is given for PTA under the expected maintenance, the theoretical spot price of PTA is around 4293, so it corresponds to 4300 below the market. There is strong support nearby.
For industrial investors, (1) If you hold goods or multiple orders, but are still optimistic about the market in the long term, and look below 4300 in the short term, you can buy TA105P4300 in the short term, and wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize. Close the position; (2) If you do not hold the goods, consider opening a position below 4300, and consider selling TA105P4300. </p