On the evening of March 4, the 14th OPEC Ministerial Meeting, which affected the market, officially concluded. Before the meeting, the mainstream view in the market was that OPEC would increase production by about 1.5 million barrels per day next month, and the results of the meeting clearly exceeded market expectations.
Except for Russia and Kazakhstan, which are affected by seasonal consumption patterns and are allowed to slightly increase production by 130,000 barrels/day and 20,000 barrels/day respectively, other countries will increase production in April. The scale of production cuts will remain unchanged. At the same time, Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels of white oil until April. After May, it will gradually withdraw from the voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels depending on the situation.
As the world’s largest crude oil exporter in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s every move in crude oil production attracts global attention. Previously, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz promised that in addition to strictly complying with the production reduction agreement reached by OPEC member states and some non-OPEC oil-producing countries, Saudi Arabia will reduce crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels/month in February and March 2021. to ensure a balance between supply and demand in the global market.
Statistics show that Saudi Arabia achieved an additional production cut of approximately 850,000 barrels per day in February. According to OPEC surveys, as of December 2020, the production of OECD countries Crude oil inventories have fallen for the fifth consecutive month.
Affected by this news, U.S. crude oil has been rising, and the price is very close to the pre-COVID-19 high. WTI crude oil futures once rose to $66.4 per barrel, the highest since October 2018. As of the close, WTI crude oil futures rose 3.84% to US$66.28 per barrel, a new high since April 2019. Brent crude oil futures were at $69.69 per barrel, an increase of 3.61%, setting a new high since January 2020.
Boosted by this, domestic SC crude oil and related polyester raw material varieties rose due to the storm on the 5th. As of the afternoon closing of March 5, SC crude oil The main contract surged nearly 7%, leading the commodity market; the main contracts of PTA and ethylene glycol closed up 2.23% and 2.10% respectively.
Many institutions raised oil prices Expectations
There is room for further growth in international oil prices
Goldman Sachs Group predicts that Brent crude oil prices will reach 70 per barrel in the second quarter of this year US dollar, it will reach US$75 per barrel in the third quarter, US$10 higher than the earlier forecast; in addition, the WTI crude oil price forecast for 2021 and 2022 is raised to US$66/barrel and US$67/barrel respectively, from US$58.50/barrel previously. and $62/barrel. Goldman Sachs expects U.S. production to grow significantly in 2022, but not to return to previous peak growth levels.
Oil company Socar Trading has also joined the market in bullish oil prices. The company believes that demand for crude oil will rebound and producers cannot immediately supply sufficient crude oil, so it expects Brent oil prices to hit $80 per barrel this year.
Morgan Stanley pointed out in a recent analysis and forecast report that as of now, the global oil market supply gap is at a level of 2.8 million barrels per day, and may enter at least the year 2000. Oil supply is the most scarce quarter in history. Therefore, it is predicted that the average price of WTI oil in the second quarter may be US$62.5, higher than the previous expectation of US$52.50, while the average price of Brent crude oil in the second quarter may be US$65.00, compared with the previous expectation of US$55.00. Dollar.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that in the second half of 2021, the recovery in demand will exceed growing production. Wood Mackenzie International Energy Macro Research believes that the rapid vaccination of the new crown vaccine and improving economic prospects may drive global oil demand to grow by nearly 7% in 2021, leading to a “rapid decline in inventories” of excess crude oil accumulated since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. .
Therefore, regarding the next trend of international oil prices, most institutions believe that with the recovery of economic activities, demand will rise, and there is room for further rise in international oil prices.
Whether the market will work depends on the strength of crude oil
Short-term Polyester product prices are expected to re-enter the upward channel
Crude oil, as the leading variety in the futures chemical sector, detonates the market! Although there has been a stalemate in the market in recent days, and polyester production and sales have seemed very frustrating, in the end it still depends on the “face” of crude oil.
If crude oil rises sharply, the downstream generally becomes less bearish about the market outlook, and the willingness to buy will be greatly increased. Market supply will be increased, and the improvement in market conditions will also be significantly boosted. The rapid manifestation of all this transmission effect is that crude oil is still the main determinant of the polyester industry chain.
The sharp rise in crude oil in recent days has given the market bulls who have been complaining a shot in the arm. The price of polyester products may once again enter the upward channel in the short term.
In addition, considering the gradual acceptance of the downstream market, the recovery of the epidemic will promote the market outlook. At the same time, the traditional peak season has arrived, and domestic and foreign trade orders in the market may pick up. Polyester and terminal weaving The market demand for replenishment is still strong. Generally speaking, the recent ups and downs in the polyester market are due to the intertwining of long and short factors. The trend has shifted from raw material cost support to partial return to fundamental demand. In the later period, supply and demand are basically balanced.� is where the trend is.
Therefore, it is still the old saying: Whether the market can work or not depends on the strength of crude oil, otherwise everything will be in vain. Overall, the current deep-seated changes in the supply and demand pattern have established a strong pattern for crude oil, while the improvement in the epidemic situation in global economies has further increased market optimism. But at the same time, industry insiders also said that the current crude oil prices continue to rise, and the mentality of both supply and demand is very subtle. To put it nicely, it is cautious, and to put it bluntly, it is “fear of falling.”
But for now, if crude oil prices can continue to rise, the entire polyester market will improve, and this optimism will continue to spread in the short term. </p
