Brief description of the first part
According to Jinlianchuang monitoring, PX and upstream and downstream products all rose in February. The international crude oil market continued to rise during the month, especially during the Spring Festival. Crude oil rose sharply, and chemical products generally made up for the increase after the holiday, and even short squeezed the market. The market for polyester raw materials PTA and PX surged, and the polyester product market actively followed the rise. Market production and sales increased, and terminal weaving companies resumed work quickly after the Spring Festival holiday. , terminal demand has steadily increased, boosting the polyester product market to gradually rise.
Table PX and related products rise and fall rankings in February
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In February, the monthly average price of PX upstream and downstream products rose overall month-on-month. Among them, the monthly average price of the isomeric xylene market showed the largest month-on-month increase, with the monthly average price rising as high as 20.34% month-on-month. In addition, the monthly average price of the polyester bottle flake market The month-on-month price increase ranked second, with a month-on-month increase of 15.08%. The monthly average price of the PX market increased by 13.37% month-on-month. The monthly average price increases of the PTA market and the polyester bottle flake market were relatively small, rising by 10.89% and 10.80% respectively.
Part 2: Market analysis of main products in the PX industry chain
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Isomeric xylene The domestic xylene market rose strongly in February, affected by many factors such as the US economic stimulus plan and the cold wave , crude oil futures prices rose strongly, with WTI futures prices rising from around US$53/barrel to around US$63/barrel. Driven by the rise in upstream energy products, the domestic xylene market has also risen strongly. In addition, domestic equipment will be intensively overhauled in the later period, supply is expected to tighten, and the market is bullish. However, as the price of xylene rises, the price difference between xylene and gasoline and PX continues to change. The price difference between xylene, gasoline and other components widened during the month, resulting in a decrease in enthusiasm for blending purchases after the Spring Festival, and the price difference between xylene and PX narrowed. , there is no change in the factory’s external mining during the month, but in the long term, the company will mine more naphtha and reduce the amount of xylene.
PX
The Asian PX market rose sharply in February, with an astonishing increase. As of the end of the month, the Asian PX It is estimated to be US$878/ton FOB South Korea and US$896/ton CFR Taiwan/China, up US$212/ton from the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil continued to rise, with strong cost support. In addition, due to the delay in restarting the 1.6 million tons/year PX unit of Zhongjin Petrochemical, merchants were worried that PX supply would continue to be tight and took the opportunity to boost prices and speculate. The market quickly pushed up, and downstream PTA The market is rising together, and the overall mood of the industrial chain is good. On the eve of the Spring Festival, although terminal factories experienced load reductions and shutdowns, the overall operation of downstream PTA was stable, and the demand for PX was good. Especially during the Spring Festival, international crude oil rose sharply, and the overall environment was warmer. Asian PX The market continues to follow the rise, and merchants have a strong intention to raise prices. After the holiday, chemical products generally make up for the increase, and the PX market enthusiasm is still high. Due to the retaliatory rise in the chemical sector, downstream PTA futures even hit the daily limit, and PX merchants have a strong intention to raise prices. PX The market continued to rise, and Qilu Petrochemical’s PX plant permanently cut capacity, which also stimulated market sentiment. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the February PX settlement price was 5,610 yuan/ton, which was 420 yuan/ton higher than the previous month’s settlement. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in February was US$770.83/ton, up 13.37% month-on-month and down 16.41% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$705/ton on February 1, and the highest price was US$896/ton on February 26. Ton.
PTA
The PTA spot market rose sharply in February, and the overall transaction situation was acceptable. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil prices rose, the PX market continued to rise, and the cost-end benefits continued to be released. Some PTA plants have reduced load and production, but the other half of the new plant in Fujian Baihong has been put into operation, and the supply has further increased. The contradiction between supply and demand has severely suppressed market sentiment. Downstream polyester production started to decline, terminals were gradually withdrawn from the market near the end of the year, and the demand side weakened month-on-month. On the 4th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 160-165 yuan/ton for the 2105 contract, and the offer was reduced by 170-175 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3930-3970 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, the international crude oil market operated strongly, PX prices consolidated firmly, and the cost side provided solid support to the PTA market. International crude oil prices strengthened during the Spring Festival, and PTA prices opened sharply higher after the holiday. However, the new PTA equipment was operating normally and the operating rate remained high. The contradiction between supply and demand still restricted the upside, and the PTA market maintained a strong and volatile pattern. On the 18th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 140 yuan/ton for the 2105 contract, and the offer was reduced by 150 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 4140-4160 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the international crude oil market continued to improve, PX prices fluctuated strongly, and the cost side played a strong role in pushing up the PTA market. Downstream polyester factories are actively resuming work, polyester operating rates have rebounded rapidly, and terminal demand has recovered beyond expectations, which is good for PTA on the demand side. Some devices are scheduled to be shut down for maintenance, and supply may decline slightly in stages. However, due to the large-scale launch of new PTA production capacity, the market has insufficient momentum to continue its upward trend. On the 25th, the spot offer at Dongmao Port was reduced by 85 yuan/ton for the 2105 contract, and the offer was reduced by 90-100 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 4790-4810 yuan/ton. In February, the average PTA market price in East China was 4,150 yuan/ton, up 9.99% month-on-month and down 3.42% year-on-year. The highest price was 4,810 yuan/ton on the 25th, and the lowest price was 3,920 yuan/ton on the 3rd.
Polyester chips
The polyester chip market in February showed a “straight line” Uptrend. In early February, international crude oil prices rose, and the trend of polyester raw material PTA increased.The price mainly fluctuated, and the support effect of polyester cost was acceptable. The quotations of polyester chip companies rose steadily and narrowly. However, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and pre-holiday stocking is coming to an end. Downstream factories mostly purchase goods on demand, and the overall market transaction performance is average. . In the middle of the year, international crude oil prices rose sharply, the raw material PTA futures market rose, polyester chip cost-end support increased, downstream and middlemen were highly motivated to buy goods, polyester production and sales were booming, some polyester factories were tight in chip shipments, and the semi-gloss chip market reported The market continued to rise, and by the end of the month, the market price in East China rose to a maximum of 6,500-6,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,450 yuan/ton during the month. In the second half of the year, the polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol still fluctuated strongly, and the cost support effect was strong. The quotations of slicing companies continued to rise. After the price increase of downstream factories, most of them took a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The overall market transaction fell slightly. As of February 26, the average chip market price was 5,653 yuan/ton, up 10.8% month-on-month and down 4.83% year-on-year. The highest price was 6,600 yuan/ton on February 25, and the lowest price was 5,150 yuan/ton on February 1. Yuan / ton.
Polyester bottle flakes
The domestic bottle-grade PET market surged in February, especially during the Spring Festival Market gains accelerated after the holidays. In the first ten days of the month, optimism dominated the crude oil market. Starting from the middle of the month, due to the sharp reduction in crude oil supply caused by the cold wave in the United States, international crude oil continued to rise. The polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets surged. Driven by costs, bottle flakes Manufacturers began to actively raise prices for shipments, especially after the Spring Festival holiday. Bottle tablet manufacturers began to accelerate price increases. Manufacturers raised their quotations several times during the day, and the focus of market negotiations gradually increased. By the end of the month, the price in the East China market had reached a maximum of 7,300-7,600 yuan. / ton, an increase of 1,750 yuan / ton during the month, and the current market has risen to the level of July 2019. Before the holiday, many downstream manufacturers have gone on holiday, terminal demand has weakened, and logistics and transportation have gradually stopped, so transactions in the spot market have been limited. Starting from the post-holiday period, as the market soared, market inquiries increased, and dealers began to actively replenish goods. Market transactions increased, large-scale orders increased, and downstream companies started to recover steadily. Due to sufficient early stocking, the overall downstream demand is limited. Inquiries and tenders from major downstream manufacturers have increased, mostly for supplies in the second to third quarter. As of February 26, the average market price of bottle-grade PET in East China in February was 6,495 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 15.08%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.27%. The highest price appeared on February 25 at 7,600 yuan/ton, and the lowest price appeared on 5,850 yuan/ton on February 1.
Part 3 Forecast and Outlook
Jin Lianchuang predicts that the PX industry chain may be There will be a wide shock pattern. It is unknown whether crude oil will continue to rise. However, PX supply has returned to normal levels, and PX losses have been significantly reduced. There is a possibility of increasing the load of foreign devices, and the start-up of downstream PTA devices is expected to increase. The increase in market supply pressure may drag down the market rise. Raw materials End-to-end polyester market push weakens. However, polyester production and terminal textile demand will fully recover next month, and the improvement in demand will provide comprehensive support for the entire industrial chain market. The following is the market outlook for each product:
PX
Jinlianchuang expects PX in March The market is fluctuating at a high level, mainly digesting gains. The maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s PX equipment will lead to a reduction in supply, thus boosting market sentiment. However, the general rise after the Spring Festival has already been relatively large. If it continues to rise, it will easily lead to profit taking. On the whole , it is expected that the PX market will fluctuate and consolidate in March, and attention will be paid to changes in downstream construction.
PTA
Jin Lianchuang expects that the PTA market may be strong in March. Although the newly put into production equipment is operating normally, some PTA manufacturers have introduced maintenance plans. At the same time, downstream polyester has returned to the market one after another, and the contradiction between supply and demand has improved. Supported by this, the PTA spot basis has strengthened. However, due to the large volume of PTA futures warehouse receipts, In the case of stronger basis, it is not ruled out that some warehouse receipts will flow back to the spot market, further suppressing the extent of market rise. In the short term, the PTA market may continue to rely on costs to maintain a strong shock. In the medium and long term, the shock pattern may continue, and attention should be paid to the situation of downstream textile orders.
Polyester PET
Jin Lianchuang predicts that the polyester PET market may still be strong in March run. From the supply side, the downstream and terminal markets recovered rapidly in early March, and factory inventory pressure was small. Downstream factory orders increased significantly, and the market transaction focus is expected to remain high. From mid-to-late term, with the full recovery of downstream and terminal markets, the traditional consumption peak season of the polyester PET market may come. At that time, the market price of polyester PET may continue to increase, but it is still necessary to pay close attention to the price trend of upstream polyester raw materials. On the whole, the trading vitality of the polyester PET market continues to recover, and the market transaction focus continues to rise. It is expected that the polyester PET market may be relatively volatile in March. In the future, we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market. </p
