Recently, polyester chain varieties can be called the “drama queen” of the domestic futures market, among which PTA is the most obvious, switching between the upper limit and lower limit at will; ethylene glycol hits a record high, and is short-lived above 6,000 points; short fiber has appeared successively Cliff rises and cliff falls.
What is the main contradiction between supply and demand behind the frequent rise and fall of PTA? Will the logic of ethylene glycol change in the future? Currently, the international oil price is still more than 6 US dollars higher than before the holiday. Is the polyester chain expected to stop falling in the near future? The editor invites senior polyester chain futures experts to provide you with in-depth analysis.
Editor: From the end of February to the present, the polyester chain varieties have all exited the “M” head shape at a high level. Yesterday, the two varieties fell to the limit, and the staple fiber market rebounded. After giving up most of the post-holiday gains, oil prices are still more than $6 higher than before the holiday. What are your views on this round of correction and whether the decline can be stopped in the near future?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: Both ethylene glycol and staple fiber are in tight supply and have relatively large price elasticity. When rising oil prices drive downstream stocking sentiment, prices take the initiative. The sharp rise led to the emergence of excess profits; when the upward trend in oil prices was weak and downstream stocking stopped, profits fell sharply and compressed profits. At present, short fiber profits continue to be compressed, but the weakening costs have given new room for decline. Whether the decline can truly stop depends on the trend of raw materials. The excess profits of the ethylene glycol industry have been significantly compressed. The integrated profit of naphtha has been reduced from more than 200 US dollars/ton to 100 US dollars/ton. External mining of ethylene and methanol has turned to losses. The coal chemical industry is still profitable, but continued compression may lead to Some devices that have not yet been restarted have been postponed to restart, and the second quarter is a period of intensive maintenance for the coal chemical industry. The tight situation of ethylene glycol before new production capacity is formed will keep the price on the strong side. After excess profits are compressed, the price will gradually stop falling. During this round of rise in PTA, the processing gap did not continue to strengthen, mainly due to the huge social inventory and the suppression of the commissioning of new production capacity in the first quarter. The rise in PTA can be considered as passively following the rise in costs. PX and naphtha have seen better profits during this round of rises, including the benefits brought by the shutdown of North American equipment. Therefore, as the equipment restarts, the supply of naphtha resumes. , the profits of the naphtha industry will also be adjusted moderately, and the PX-naphtha price difference is expected to weaken under the expectation that the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be put into production. Overall, whether PTA prices can stop falling depends on upstream raw materials, including crude oil, naphtha and PX.
Liu Mengmeng, industrial products analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: At present, the main types of polyester chain futures include PTA, ethylene glycol and short fiber, and the source of PTA is crude oil, ethylene glycol, etc. Glycol can also be produced from crude oil, so changes in the price of crude oil will affect the cost of PTA and ethylene glycol and thus their prices, and changes in the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol will affect the cost of staple fiber, so polyester Chain varieties are susceptible to the impact of crude oil prices. The callback of polyester chain varieties was not only driven by the correction of international oil prices, but also the price of polyester raw materials rose too high and too fast after the holiday. Terminal weaving factories were more resistant to the price increase of raw materials, and new orders from terminals were relatively limited, gradually forming a negative impact on the upstream. Negative feedback. The current high production of polyester may still provide support to the upstream. It is expected that polyester chain varieties will continue to decline to a limited extent, but we must also pay attention to the trend of international oil prices.
Founder mid-term futures energy researcher Zhai Qidi: The recent correction is mainly caused by valuation adjustments triggered by macro sentiment and the rise and fall of the cost side. Since the beginning of the year, inflation expectations have triggered a rapid rise in commodity prices, and the market has recently been worried about tightening liquidity in the later period. The valuations of products such as ethylene glycol and staple fiber have been significantly raised before, and the market is lowering their valuations recently. At the same time, crude oil has recently risen and fallen, and PTA prices are closely related to the cost side. Bulls have reduced their positions and left the market, and PTA prices have also fallen.
Looking forward to the market outlook, there is currently little room for further pressure on the valuations of PTA and short fiber. Considering the pressure on production capacity in May, the valuation of ethylene glycol still has room for decline. Therefore, when PTA and short fiber will stop falling will depend on crude oil, while ethylene glycol will still face greater selling pressure in the future, especially the far-month contract.
Editor: Judging from the cumulative increase after the holiday, ethylene glycol temporarily ranks first. What are the reasons for the strength and whether the market logic will change in the future. changes happened?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: In addition to rising costs brought about by oil prices, the strength of ethylene glycol will also affect China’s second-generation ethylene glycol due to the shutdown of North American equipment and tight supply in Europe. As for the future import volume of glycol, there was no seasonal rebound in inventory during the Spring Festival. After the holiday, the inventory remained low, and with expectations of continued decline, the price elasticity of ethylene glycol was obvious, and excess profits appeared. After the recent squeeze on excess profits ends, ethylene glycol will return to the supply and demand side again. The tight situation will keep the price at a relatively high level. The supply and demand side will not turn around until new domestic devices are put into production, and then the profits will be huge. It will also face squeeze. In the future, the ethylene glycol industry will once again enter a storage accumulation cycle, profits will be thin, and some high-cost devices will face competitive pressure.
Liu Mengmeng, industrial products analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: The strong rise in ethylene glycol after the holiday is not only supported by the cost support brought by the sharp increase in international oil prices during the long holiday, but also by Factors of tightening supply and demand include the large-scale shutdown of foreign ethylene glycol plants due to the extremely cold weather in North America. The volume of ethylene glycol arriving at ports will remain low in the future, and port inventories will continue to decline. In addition, domestic polyester production starts during the Spring Festival are higher than in previous years, and downstream demand for ethylene glycol is also increasing.��Definitely supported, ethylene glycol has experienced a large increase under the influence of many favorable factors. In the later stage, due to the upward trend of overnight crude oil and the sharp decline in the value of ethylene glycol in recent days, the market may stabilize and rebound. However, in the medium and long term, supply pressure may still restrict the rebound space of ethylene glycol.
Zhai Qidi, a researcher at Founder Medium-term Futures Energy and Chemical Industry: The previous strong performance of ethylene glycol is mainly due to the following reasons: first, inflation expectations at the macro level have fermented, and commodities have generally risen; Second, the cost-side international oil prices are rising, which is good for the energy sector; third, the fundamentals are relatively strong, and the market had previously expected that the supply and demand pressure on the ethylene glycol 05 contract would not be large. During the Spring Festival, affected by the extremely cold weather, many local units in the United States were unexpectedly shut down for maintenance. At the same time, there were many units in the Middle East for maintenance from January to February. Considering the shipping schedule, the import volume from March to April will remain low, while the downstream polyester The operating rate has rebounded rapidly, main ports still have expectations of destocking despite low inventories, and spot liquidity has tightened.
The board logic is changing. Since the beginning of the year, the spot price of ethylene glycol futures has risen sharply, and the profits of coal-based and naphtha-based ethylene glycol production have rapidly recovered, corresponding to the continuous increase in the valuation of ethylene glycol. However, there has been a lot of news in the market recently about the early start-up of the integrated refining and chemical ethylene glycol unit, which has caused bulls to worry about the increase in supply in the later period. It is difficult for ethylene glycol to enjoy the high valuation in the early stage. It is currently understood that the new unit may be running smoothly in May. Due to the large size of the large refining and chemical units, and the import volume is also expected to pick up after May, the main port may return to accumulated storage by then, and the fundamentals will weaken. The market is currently suppressing the high valuation of ethylene glycol, especially the 2009 contract, which is facing pressure from a rebound in imports and a substantial increase in domestic production. It may be a better choice to go higher in the later period.
Editor: The post-holiday growth of staple fiber is less than that of raw materials. Is it possible to lead the rise again? What is the main contradiction between supply and demand behind the frequent rise and fall of PTA?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: Short fiber has already strengthened in advance before the holiday. The positive boost to the demand side after the holiday is limited, and it is more based on the logic of rising costs. At present, most downstream stockings last for more than one month, so short fiber production and sales will remain sluggish for a while, and prices will passively follow the fluctuations of raw materials. As a variety with a good supply and demand pattern, the price elasticity of short fiber is still good, but it requires the cooperation of downstream demand. It is more likely to lead the rise again, but the time should be when the downstream raw material inventory is exhausted, short fiber prices are low, profits are thin, and costs stop falling and rebound. Of course, an unexpected outbreak of orders may also cause short fiber prices to rise in advance. , and the mediocre performance of orders may also delay the rise. Overall, after the vaccine vaccination rate has increased this year and the epidemic control situation has greatly improved, domestic and foreign demand will rebound significantly, so the overall performance of short fiber during the year will be better. The supply of PTA remained in excess during the year. In the first quarter, the intensive commissioning of new production capacity put pressure on prices. The growth rate of PTA lagged far behind other varieties. However, the intensive maintenance of old equipment and the strength of costs caused PTA prices to rise for a while. When oil prices weakened, PX Prices fell sharply, downstream production and sales continued to be sluggish, and when related varieties in the polyester industry chain continued to fall, PTA also followed the decline in stages. However, overall cost support and supply suppression limited the fluctuation range of PTA prices, and its fluctuation range was smaller than the other two varieties. .
Liu Mengmeng, industrial products analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: The market for short fiber is mainly affected by its own supply and demand. From a supply perspective, there is limited room for continued improvement in the short fiber operating rate in the later period; corporate inventories continue to be at oversold levels, so there is not too much pressure on the supply itself; but the main contradiction at present is excessive social inventory and low factory equity inventory. contradiction. Taken together, the digestion of social stocks of short fiber requires a process. Against this background, the spot price of short fiber still has a certain risk of falling. However, as the supply and demand pattern is still normal, the market may not continue to fall. The frequent rise and fall of PTA is mainly due to changes in the prices of terminal raw material crude oil and direct raw material PX. Based on the financial attributes of PTA, its price is more susceptible to fluctuations in crude oil, and changes in PX prices will affect its processing range, so PTA will Reacts to crude oil and PX prices.
Zhai Qidi, Energy and Chemical Researcher of Founder Mid-term Futures: There are two main reasons for the recent sharp decline in short fiber: First, the raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have dropped from high levels, and the cost of short fiber Second, the stocking level of downstream raw materials has reached a high level. Under high prices, few downstream companies have followed up, and futures merchants and traders have concentrated on shipping. Near the end of the month, as downstream raw material stocks are digested, driven by replenishment demand, short fiber may still lead the rise in stages.
The recent frequent rise and fall of PTA has little to do with the supply and demand side, but is mainly affected by macro sentiment and costs. Recently, PTA supply-side maintenance has gradually increased. Reignwood Petrochemical’s 1.4 million tons/year, Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons/year, and Zhongtai Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons/year PTA units are gradually undergoing maintenance. At the same time, there are still plans for PTA unit maintenance in the future. To be realized; the operating rate of PTA downstream polyester quickly rebounded to above 90.84%, and the demand side quickly returned to normal levels. The periodic destocking of PTA from March to April is expected to remain unchanged. The PTA processing fee is currently around 300 yuan/ton, and the valuation is at a low level. The futures price is closely related to the cost-end crude oil. At the same time, changes in macro sentiment have also intensified the market fluctuations. </p
