Since March, the price fluctuation of PTA has been abnormally large, which can be said to be a “success or failure”. Relying on the leadership of the cost side, the PTA2105 contract hit the lower limit again on March 10 to 4,448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.04%. With the short-term supply and demand side easing slightly, fluctuations in costs have become the main influencing factor.
From a cost perspective, the PX-N price difference has shrunk recently. As of March 10, the PX-N price difference has been compressed to US$230/ton, a higher point 287 US dollars / ton, down 19.86%. Recently, domestic Shanghai Petrochemical has produced 600,000 tons, Qingdao Lidong has produced 1 million tons, Wu Petrochemical has produced 1 million tons, Fujia Dahua has produced 1.4 million tons, South Korea’s SK has produced 400,000 tons, Hanwha has produced 1.26 million tons, Japan’s Idemitsu has produced 265,000 tons, and Japan’s Noshi 190,000 tons are all scheduled for maintenance in the second quarter. Although PTA has multiple units in maintenance plans, the first phase of Yisheng New Materials’ 3.3 million tons unit is expected to be put into production. Therefore, it is expected that PX’s own supply and demand will be in a state of narrow destocking. As PX’s own supply and demand are in a healthy state, and the current PX-N spread is at a slightly low level, we expect that the PX-N spread may still be repaired in the future.
In terms of spot prices, the basis of the PTA2105 contract is -55 to 60 yuan/ton, which is slightly stronger than the previous period. At the same time, warehouse receipts have been affected by spot circulation in recent days. Under sexual tension, warehouse receipts are actively delivered and transactions are more active. The main reason is that the basis is relatively slightly stronger due to the centralized maintenance of multiple sets of PTA equipment and the repurchase of spot goods by some mainstream factories.
From the perspective of equipment maintenance, PTA is currently under inspection The production capacity of the device is 13.34 million tons. The current PTA load has basically dropped to the lowest level in the month to 75.20%, and the supply is at a low position; the profits of each polyester product are considerable, the inventory is at a normal level, the market pressure is small, and the overall willingness to start production is strong , the loose supply and demand situation has been improved.
In the later stage, the cost side will still dominate the fluctuations of PTA market. As for crude oil, we need to pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting in April; for raw material PX, we need to pay attention to the repair of the PX-N price difference in the future. In terms of PTA supply and demand, March-April was relatively healthy. Due to high polyester production, there will be a phased destocking of PTA supply and demand.
So on the whole, if there are no major fluctuations in short-term PTA supply and demand, the impact on the market will be relatively limited; the price trend of crude oil in the future is the main focus. The OECD has raised its 2021 world economic growth forecast to 5.6%; U.S. gasoline demand has increased to the highest level since early November last year; the U.S. $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus policy is expected to be implemented this week; global vaccination progress is accelerating; U.S. shale oil is struggling With the full resumption of production, the above factors have brought positive support to the oil market. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term PTA market may fluctuate strongly due to cost fluctuations.
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