Polyester raw materials continued to rise after the Spring Festival, and polyester filament also experienced the fastest growth in the past ten years under the support of the cost side. As shown in the figure below, the price of polyester filament has fluctuated and climbed since mid-February, which is much higher than the same period last year. level, approaching the price of the same period in 2019.
Most downstream texturing and weaving companies have successively increased their loads since the end of February. Therefore, the main driving force for the increase in polyester filament in February comes from the cost side, and The raw material market has lived up to expectations. When one party sings, another party comes on the scene. The aggregation cost jumps from 5,000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival to around 6,000 yuan/ton. The cost pressure of polyester filament is highlighted, and the scale of equipment maintenance during the Spring Festival far exceeds the level of the same period last year. , the overall inventory of the company is low, and polyester filament yarns are also rising steadily due to various positive factors, and the growth rate is not inferior to that of polyester raw materials. Therefore, the cash flow of polyester filament yarns continues to recover after the Spring Festival.
Recent daily cash flow statistics table of mainstream polyester filament models:
As shown in the figure above, the cash flow of polyester filament has continued to improve since March. Especially this week, the dual raw material prices have been very low. The quotations have continued to fall back, and the aggregation cost has also dropped to 5,600-5,700 yuan/ton. However, the polyester filament market as a whole tends to be stable, so cash flow continues to increase. The current cash flow of mainstream POY models is more than 1,000 yuan/ton.
The risk of inventory is high
Circular knitting, water jet, air jet, and warp knitting are generally profitable Close to loss
However, looking at the downstream weaving market, the current domestic order intake remains within a stable range, which is caused by the increase in demand for intimate clothing and outerwear in late winter and early spring. However, the current orders of knitting companies are relatively lacking. The reason for the lack is that on the one hand, the prices of upstream textile raw materials have risen sharply, especially because the price of external orders cannot be negotiated for the time being, and buyers and sellers are in a stalemate. Some domestic orders have also suffered serious profit losses due to price reasons. Loss. Taken together, it will still take time for terminal weaving orders to recover.
Circular knitting machine: The average operating rate is 51.70%. The operating rate of circular knitting machines in Shaoxing is 51.31%, and the operating rate of circular knitting machines in Guangdong is 52.09%. The start of circular knitting machines this week has increased compared with last week. There are two main reasons. First, workers have gradually arrived, which has further increased the load of factories that are currently making orders. In addition, the prices of pure cotton yarn and polyester yarn traders have dropped to a certain extent recently. The mood for circular knitting machines has improved slightly. But at present, new orders are not yet clear. The prices of spandex, polyester, and yarn are still at high levels. The local circular knitting machine manufacturers are still resistant, and the risk of inventory is still high. They are currently mainly making orders.
Air jet loom: the average startup rate is 84.00%. The high-density rayon fabric started smoothly after the festival and is still running normally. However, the same early low-priced yarn is gradually being digested. According to the current gray fabric According to price calculation, weaving enterprises have gradually approached losses, but the current factory warehouse can still allow inventory growth. However, if orders are not started before the end of March, the start-up of the weaving industry in April may be affected; Shengzhou air-jet cloth production increases, but if orders are The situation or discount expectations have not yet been released.
Water-jet loom: the average operating rate is 77.83%. Recently, polyester fiber has experienced a large increase, which has suppressed terminal demand. Cloth merchants are currently cautious in placing orders, and loom factory orders are clearly differentiated. Larger companies are currently doing well with domestic and foreign orders. However, due to the current high raw material prices, they are temporarily digesting early purchases. Raw materials, the willingness to purchase raw materials is not strong. Small and medium-sized enterprises currently have limited orders and expect foreign trade orders to be issued at the end of March and early April. Short-term market expectations are cautious.
Warp knitting: the average opening rate is 66.22%. The average operating rate of warp knitting companies in Changshu is 65.59%. Local warp knitting companies in Changshu are currently lacking orders, showing a slight downward trend compared with near the end of February. First, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and buyers and sellers have been unable to negotiate prices, resulting in delays in placing orders. Second, orders were not delivered before the year. Due to insufficient stocking of raw materials in the factory, prices rose sharply after the year, resulting in profit losses, and the factory was under severe pressure. The average warp knitting start-up rate in Haining area is 71.22%. Due to the sharp rise in spandex prices, orders for spandex super-soft and Korean velvet fabrics have been seriously affected. Domestic and foreign orders cannot be successfully negotiated. The average start-up rate of local warp knitting companies is slightly lower; Changle area economics The average knitting operation rate was 61.86%. On the one hand, weaving factories were affected by the high level of raw material products during the week, squeezing the profits of gray fabrics. On the other hand, new orders were limited, and downstream weaving factories were starting to resume operations. Therefore, the operation rate increased during the week. Overall limited.
Downstream resistance is high, so it’s time to give appropriate profits to the downstream!
At present, polyester raw materials have begun to rationally adjust, giving profits to polyester filament. However, polyester filament prices are mainly stable, so industry profits are concentrated in the polyester segment and have not moved to the polyester segment. Downstream transmission, downstream users are increasingly resistant to high-priced raw materials, and their willingness to purchase is not strong. Recently, the polyester filament market has been deserted, with the current overall transaction volume at 10-20%. Inventory has also increased. As of last Thursday, POY factory inventory was generally around 9-16 days; FDY factory inventory was mostly around 12-18 days.;DTY inventory is generally around 18-23 days.
Based on the current situation in the polyester filament market, the current downstream inquiry willingness is not strong, the market is gradually overstocked, industry profits are concentrated in the polyester link, and downstream resistance is relatively high. High, maybe it’s time to moderately transfer profits to downstream to promote downstream procurement! </p
