Polyester raw materials continued to rise after the Spring Festival, and polyester filament also experienced the fastest growth in the past ten years, supported by the cost side, as shown in the figure below, 2 The price of polyester filament has fluctuated and climbed since mid-month, which is much higher than the level of the same period last year and approaching the price of the same period in 2019.
There are more than 2 downstream texturing and weaving companies Loads were gradually increased at the end of the month, so the main driving force for polyester filament growth in February came from the cost side, and the raw material market lived up to expectations. When one side stopped singing, the other side came on the scene, and the aggregate cost jumped from 5,000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival to 6,000 yuan/ton. Around tons, the cost pressure of polyester filament is highlighted, and the scale of equipment maintenance during the Spring Festival far exceeds the level of the same period last year. The overall inventory of the company is low. Various favorable factors have boosted the steady rise of polyester filament, and the increase is not inferior to that of polyester raw materials. Therefore, during the Spring Festival Post-polyester filament cash flow continues to repair.
Recent daily cash flow statistics table of mainstream polyester filament models:
As shown in the figure above, the cash flow of polyester filament has continued to improve since March. Especially this week, the price of double raw materials has been cold, and the quotations have continued to fall. , the polymerization cost has also dropped to 5,600-5,700 yuan/ton. However, the overall polyester filament market has stabilized, so cash flow continues to increase. The current cash flow of mainstream POY models is more than 1,000 yuan/ton.
The risk of inventory is high
Circular knitting, water jet, air jet, and warp knitting are common Profits are close to losses
However, looking at the downstream weaving market, the current domestic order intake remains within a stable range, which is caused by the increase in demand for intimate clothing and outerwear in late winter and early spring. However, the current orders of knitting companies are relatively lacking. The reason for the lack is that on the one hand, the prices of upstream textile raw materials have risen sharply, especially because the price of external orders cannot be negotiated for the time being, and buyers and sellers are in a stalemate. Some domestic orders have also suffered serious profit losses due to price reasons. Loss. Taken together, it will still take time for terminal weaving orders to recover.
Circular knitting machine: The average startup rate is 51.70%. The operating rate of circular knitting machines in Shaoxing is 51.31%, and the operating rate of circular knitting machines in Guangdong is 52.09%. The start of circular knitting machines this week has increased compared with last week. There are two main reasons. First, workers have gradually arrived, which has further increased the load of factories that are currently making orders. In addition, the prices of pure cotton yarn and polyester yarn traders have dropped to a certain extent recently. The mood for circular knitting machines has improved slightly. But at present, new orders are not yet clear. The prices of spandex, polyester, and yarn are still at high levels. The local circular knitting machine manufacturers are still resistant, and the risk of inventory is still high. They are currently mainly making orders.
Air jet loom: average startup rate is 84.00%. The high-density rayon fabric started smoothly after the festival and is still running normally. However, the same early low-priced yarns are gradually being digested. , based on current gray fabric prices, weaving companies are gradually approaching losses, but the current factory warehouse can still allow inventory growth. However, if orders are not started before the end of March, the start-up of the weaving industry in April may be affected; Shengzhou air-jet fabric production increases , but if the order has not been placed or the discount is expected.
Water-jet loom: the average operating rate is 77.83%. Recently, polyester fiber has experienced a large increase, which has suppressed terminal demand. Cloth merchants are currently cautious in placing orders, and loom factory orders are clearly differentiated. Larger companies are currently doing well with domestic and foreign orders. However, due to the current high raw material prices, they are temporarily digesting early purchases. Raw materials, the willingness to purchase raw materials is not strong. Small and medium-sized enterprises currently have limited orders and expect foreign trade orders to be issued at the end of March and early April. Short-term market expectations are cautious.
Warp knitting: the average operating rate is 66.22%. The average operating rate of warp knitting companies in Changshu is 65.59%. Local warp knitting companies in Changshu are currently lacking orders, showing a slight downward trend compared with near the end of February. First, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and buyers and sellers have been unable to negotiate prices, resulting in delays in placing orders. Second, orders were not delivered before the year. Due to insufficient stocking of raw materials in the factory, prices rose sharply after the year, resulting in profit losses, and the factory was under severe pressure. The average warp knitting start-up rate in Haining area is 71.22%. Due to the sharp rise in spandex prices, orders for spandex super-soft and Korean velvet fabrics have been seriously affected. Domestic and foreign orders cannot be successfully negotiated. The average start-up rate of local warp knitting companies is slightly lower; Changle area economics The average knitting operation rate was 61.86%. On the one hand, weaving factories were affected by the high level of raw material products during the week, squeezing the profits of gray fabrics. On the other hand, new orders were limited, and downstream weaving factories were starting to resume operations. Therefore, the operation rate increased during the week. Overall limited.
Downstream resistance is high
It’s time to appropriately give profits to downstream!
At present, polyester raw materials have begun to rationally adjust, giving profits to polyester filament. However, the price of polyester filament is mainly stable, so industry profits are concentrated in the polyester segment. , has not been transmitted downwards, and downstream users are resistant to high-priced raw materials.The temperature is low, and the willingness to purchase is not strong. The polyester filament market has been deserted recently, and the overall transaction volume is currently at 10-20%. Inventory has also increased. As of last Thursday, POY factory inventory is generally around 9-16 days; FDY factory inventory is mostly around 12-18 days; DTY inventory is generally around 18-23 days.
Based on the current situation in the polyester filament market, downstream inquiries are not strong, the market is gradually overstocked, and industry profits are concentrated in the polyester segment. Downstream resistance is high, so maybe it’s time to moderately give profits to the downstream to promote downstream procurement!
</p
