Short fiber led the decline in the polyester chain on the 15th, but the weakness did not change on the 16th, accelerating the dive by more than 4%, closing at 7162 yuan, falling to a new post-holiday low . PTA accelerated its decline by more than 2% in late trading, closing at 4,446 yuan.
After the Spring Festival, driven by the surge in crude oil, the cost side was boosted, and the price of short fiber increased significantly, once exceeding the 8,000 yuan/ton price mark. However, due to sufficient stocks of raw materials in the downstream industry, there is resistance to high-priced supply, and price transmission is blocked, resulting in price corrections, short fiber operations weakening, confidence taking a hit, and bearish sentiment surging.
On the 16th, the main staple fiber market dived, trying to make up for the post-holiday high jump gap. Fortunately, although spot prices were affected and weakened, they were relatively resilient, resulting in a passive strengthening of the basis. The most important issue is demand. At present, spinning mills have a large inventory of raw materials, which will be available until early or mid-April, and there is insufficient willingness to purchase. In the terminal, due to the large increase in upstream raw materials and high valuations, the increase in terminal gray fabrics is small, and the profits of gray fabrics have been compressed. In addition, the early rise was entirely driven by macroeconomics and expectations. The terminal orders are actually a window period, and the authenticity cannot be verified. False, the current order is still not at the time of heavy volume, so it is difficult to provide substantial support.
So the production and sales of short fiber factories last week were very light, even 4.86%. However, as the factory is highly oversold, equity inventory continues to be negative. At the same time, thanks to the strong oil prices last week, short fiber prices continued to decline. At the same time, after the price dropped sharply, some traders and downstream customers were attracted to purchase appropriate quantities of goods, and the transaction atmosphere improved. Perhaps this is the reason why the spot price is relatively strong.
Looking at supply, after the Shanli Chemical Fiber and Chenghuijin (formerly Wanjie) plants restart normally, the short fiber operating rate will be above 90%, and there is limited room for continued improvement; corporate inventories It continues to be oversold, so the supply itself does not have too much pressure; but the main contradiction at present is the contradiction between excessive social inventory and low factory equity inventory. If terminal conduction is smooth, low-priced inventory will be exhausted sooner or later.
Theoretically speaking, the downstream replenishment node will be ushered in in late March, and foreign trade orders are expected to be issued one after another, so the terminal is not very pessimistic. As the supply and demand pattern of short fiber is still normal, it will not continue to fall. Pay attention to the first-line support level of spot price of 7,000 yuan/ton.
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