After the Spring Festival, the pace of increase in PTA spot market prices exceeded industry expectations. However, in March, the hot market atmosphere came to an abrupt end, and spot prices sharply The fluctuations are even reflected in the rhythm of daily limit and low limit. It is difficult for market participants to adapt to the new rhythm. The voices of bulls, bears, and caution are once again divided, and the wait-and-see mood is gradually increasing. The following mainly focuses on the emotions accumulated in each link of the industrial chain and the macro perspective. A brief analysis of subtle changes.
Spot price: The spot price of East China PTA market increased by 1,720 yuan/ton from the low in mid-November last year to the post-holiday high of 4,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,720 yuan/ton in three months. / ton, rising by nearly 1,000 yuan / ton in the past month, and then entered a high-level shock stage. Personally, I believe that the rapid correction after the market’s rapid rise is, on the one hand, because there were a large number of profit-making orders after the surge. When the overall commodity market experienced a correction, PTA experienced profit-taking. On the other hand, market prices once again stood at a relatively high level, terminal resistance was strong, and downward price transmission was blocked.
Macroeconomics and crude oil: In January 2021, the domestic central bank’s open market injection volume decreased significantly, and monetary policy once again tightened marginally. However, the commodity market is less affected by this. The commodity market pays more attention to the impact of monetary policies in Europe and the United States. Since the end of last year, the expectation of a stimulus policy of 1.9 trillion yuan in the United States has promoted the rise of the domestic commodity market. With the implementation of the 1.9 trillion stimulus plan, the United States The overall future monetary policy is expected to be loose, which will still support the domestic commodity market. The international crude oil market is unlikely to experience major fluctuations before the OPEC+ meeting in early April.
Processing interval: Although the cost ends of crude oil and PX have been adjusted, the expected increase in PTA supply has restrained the spot price adjustment. The PTA processing interval continues to show a compression trend. On March 15 The daily PTA processing range has been compressed from 433.21 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 272.33 yuan/ton. Excluding the cost caused by the increase in acetic acid, the actual processing range has been close to 150 yuan/ton. The space for continued compression has been narrowed, and the future price of PTA has been reduced. The support is getting stronger and stronger.
Short-term destocking: Under the expectation of a substantial increase in production capacity, the processing range is still acceptable, which also stimulates the start-up of PTA manufacturers to remain at a high level. From the beginning of 2021 to mid-February, the overall average load of domestic PTA start-ups has remained At a high level of over 85%, product supply pressure is high. However, in mid-February, as the processing range continues to be compressed, domestic PTA manufacturers have increased routine maintenance plans. In addition, around the Spring Festival, downstream polyester production starts are better than in previous years. During the same period, demand was good, and supply and demand were in a tight balance in phases. As of March 15, domestic social inventory was around 4.7826 million tons, and daily supply and demand were destocked slightly. It is expected that the overall social inventory of PTA will be around 4.73 million tons by the end of March, forming a negative impact on the market on the supply side. It is good in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the inventory of nearly 5 million tons will still suppress the market.
Comprehensive analysis: In the short term, the pure macro-expectation drive of the commodity market has weakened, the commodity market as a whole has fallen into shock, the international crude oil market has retreated from high levels, and PTA has been affected. With the compression of the processing interval, PTA equipment maintenance is expected to increase from March to April; downstream polyester profits are good, the operating load is high, and the demand for raw materials is good. The phased supply and demand improvement still supports the PTA market, but the high inventory of PTA, The outflow of warehouse receipts and the obstruction of terminal market transmission have restrained the market. In a bearish game, the short-term PTA futures market continues to treat it with a shock mentality. In the medium and long term, the continued narrowing of the processing range is a relative safety margin for bulls (the PTA maintenance situation must be tracked in a timely manner). The increase in downstream demand load and production and sales are the basis for the price rebound. drive.