In recent times, the United States has implemented fiscal stimulus policies in an extreme manner, driving up consumer prices and even threatening the U.S. bond market and stock market. Last Thursday, local time, worries about inflation were rekindled in the U.S. financial market. The Federal Reserve’s “bailout” lasted less than a day. The crude oil market collapsed, and U.S. oil fell below the $60 mark. It is difficult to stop oil prices from continuing to fall, and strong medicine can be used in an instant. Poison!
Looking at this year’s textile market, the market is completely dominated by upstream raw materials!
After the Lantern Festival, it was supposed to be the highlight period of the “Golden Three” period. However, the weaving, printing and dyeing industries failed to deliver a “full score”. Considering that yarn prices continue to rise after the festival, large After the unit price increased by 2,000-2,500 yuan/ton, cloth factories reported higher prices and lower prices. The actual increase was significantly less than that of yarn, reaching only 50%. Faced with the difficulty of placing orders, weaving mills are particularly resistant to high prices. As the upward trend is transmitted, the transmission of demand is frustrated. With the sharp fall in futures and spot prices, some yarn companies have adjusted back around 500 yuan/ton as early as March 5, and at the same time accelerated low-price shipments, which has slightly driven the placement of some orders from weaving mills, and the market price has also fallen. Hidden dangers have been laid. Even though there were rumors about the return of orders from Southeast Asia and the increase in foreign orders from the United States during the current period, even if the yarn price fell back, it has not yet met the expectations of the weaving mills.
As the source product of bulk commodities, crude oil will inevitably have a negative impact on chemical products once it plummets or drops to the limit. This time, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol futures themselves are in a continuous decline process. , so the decline is not as big as before, and the room for further declines is also relatively small.
From the perspective of polyester factories, after experiencing a tepid and strong market in the early stage, on the 19th, under the influence of the sharp fall in the prices of raw materials such as PTA and MEG, the original price of polyester filament dropped. The price of polyester yarn, which is in a preferential state, continues to fall, and the comprehensive quotations of polyester factories have almost all been reduced.
From the perspective of yarn companies, the mentality of yarn companies whose orders are executed until the end of the month is worried. Replacement orders should have been issued early, and new orders with high prices in the current period cannot be implemented at all. The demand for new orders has increased sharply after the previous orders have been digested. Compared with high-count yarns, the offers of companies from various places are basically stable. However, after March 15, the situation of yarn companies signing orders at a reduced price has become more prominent, and the actual new order prices have been higher than The quotation is reduced by 500-1,000 yuan/ton. The main reason for this is that first of all, considering its low output, in response to the early and continuous increase, yarn companies signed orders conservatively, and long-term orders have significantly converged; secondly, the cumulative increase rate of high-count yarns is obviously higher than that of carded series, and the profit margin is especially large. Abundant; thirdly, low-priced shipments by middlemen restrict the replenishment of corporate orders, which may affect the market downward. Considering that companies are only signing orders to pull down prices and offering stable prices, there is an expectation of a sharp drop in market prices amid the slow release of forward demand.
March is the traditional peak season for weaving companies, but after March this year, due to the sharp increase in raw material costs in the early stage, it is difficult for traders to quote prices that meet the psychological expectations of weaving companies. At present, companies are more cautious in accepting orders. In addition, the recent decline in polyester raw material prices has also made weaving companies particularly entangled. Especially when it comes to buying raw materials: if you buy, you are afraid that the price of raw materials will fall in the future, and the cloth made at the current price will not be competitive in the market; if you don’t buy, there will be no raw materials to use, and the operation of the machine will be affected.
At present, the polyester filament, yarn market and texturing terminal weaving enterprises are generally pessimistic about short-term expectations. Promotional shipments are the main focus. The contradiction between supply and demand in the short term is still relatively obvious. . Downstream, under the guidance of the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down, the sentiment of selling down is high. The overall inventory of polyester filament companies will rise to a high level. The promotion model may be further continued in the future. As a member of the industry chain, gray fabric products are greatly affected by raw materials. Naturally, If you are not immune, you may face a new round of price adjustments! </p
