In the first half of 2021, the production and planned production capacities of PX, PTA, and MEG were 2.5 million, 8.2 million, and 4.5 million tons respectively, accounting for 10%, 14%, and 29% of the effective production capacity in 2020 respectively. Among them, the new production capacity of PX and PTA All are expansions of major suppliers in the industry chain. 33% of MEG’s new production capacity belongs to the expansion of major suppliers in the industry chain. There is a clear trend of large-scale polyester raw material equipment and supporting industry chains. Under the background of the subsidence of the impact of public health events in 2021 and the recovery of demand in the industrial chain, combined with Zhuochuang data analysis and analyst industry experience, the supply and demand balance of polyester raw materials in the second quarter is analyzed:
Table new production capacity statistics of polyester raw materials in the first half of 2021
1. PX: PX is in short supply with new downstream production capacity
PX device maintenance follows the rule of “one small inspection every two years and one major inspection every four years”. The centralized maintenance period for paraxylene in Asia in 2021 will still be the second quarter. , according to the announced maintenance plan, the total production capacity involved is 10.48 million tons, of which domestic maintenance accounts for 45% and foreign maintenance accounts for 55%. Therefore, the domestic output loss is about 380,000 tons, and the foreign output loss is about 380,000 tons. The volume is around 530,000 tons. But at the same time, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s second-phase PX production capacity totals 5 million tons, of which the first 2.5 million tons PX production line is scheduled to be put into operation in May, theoretically increasing the PX supply by nearly 210,000 tons per month, superimposed on Fuhai An 800,000-ton PX device has entered the start-up evaluation stage. Therefore, in terms of domestic PX supply, the effective output declined slightly from March to April, but will still open a clear upward path after May; however, the import volume is due to the existence of market gaps. , there is a high probability that the overall trend will continue to run at a high level.
To sum up, PX will be in a tight balance between supply and demand in the first and second quarters of 2021. Mainly due to the recent relatively intensive maintenance of PX and the gap in the launch of new production capacity, the supply shrinkage caused; on the demand side, Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million tons of new PTA will be launched successively from January to February, and Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.4 million tons of new PTA production capacity was fully launched in March, and a 3.3 million tons unit of Yisheng New Materials was initially planned to be commissioned in late April. Domestic PX demand increased significantly, and the PX supply and demand pattern improved. In the first half of the year, PX It will always be in the destocking channel, and the cumulative destocking level in the second quarter will be around 380,000 tons. However, due to the shrinkage of PTA processing space, PTA’s operating load shows signs of decline, which in turn offsets part of the increase in new demand. PX’s destocking efforts will gradually slow down at the end of the second quarter.
2.PTA: Short-term maintenance and destocking, medium-term excess pressure is high
Under PTA’s rapid capacity expansion cycle, new production capacity has been put into production in a blowout, and the first quarter has already A new PTA production capacity of 4.9 million tons has been put into production, and an additional 3.3 million tons of PTA production capacity is planned for the second quarter, accounting for 14.4% of the effective PTA production capacity in 2020. The short-term PTA maintenance and inventory destocking in March and April are good news, but the mid-term supply side surplus is bad news. In the second quarter, PTA supply pressure is relatively high.
The theoretical average monthly PTA processing fee from January to February is 342-406 yuan/ton. Against the background of low processing fees, some PTA devices are undergoing maintenance or planned maintenance. The current effective PTA production capacity includes: 2.44 million tons of long-term shutdown devices, 2.55 million tons of devices that have been shut down for less than 5 months, and 18.63 million tons of maintenance and planned maintenance devices from March to June. Excluding long-term parking devices, calculated based on the production capacity within 5 months of parking and the total maintenance production capacity from March to June of 21.18 million tons: the theoretical maintenance loss from March to June totaled about 2.26 million tons of PTA output, and the average monthly loss was about 565,000 tons. Among them, the theoretical loss of output from March to April was about 1.53 million tons, and the loss of output from May to June was 730,000 tons. There are many PTA inspections from March to April, and PTA may destock slightly from March to April. However, from May to June, new production capacity will be put into operation and PTA equipment will have less inspections. In theory, PTA monthly output and social inventory will continue to increase from May onwards. All time high.
With low processing fees, PTA suppliers are likely to increase maintenance efforts in the future. As of March 12, based on the daily market price of PX, the average monthly processing fee for PTA in March was about 342 yuan/ton; based on the March PX ACP of $870/ton, the average monthly processing fee for PTA in March was about 290 yuan/ton. The processing fee is almost at a point where most PTA suppliers lose money in theoretical production.
Under the premise that PTA’s social inventory is currently at a historically high level, PTA is unable to repair processing fees and maintain low processing fees. PTA devices with industrial chain supporting equipment can make up for PTA production losses with upstream and downstream profits, while PTA devices lacking industrial chain supporting equipment cannot smoothly pass on cost pressure. In the future, PTA equipment maintenance will increase due to low processing fees. Under the premise that PTA excess pressure has increased significantly from May to June, the actual maintenance capacity of PTA will most likely be greater than the planned maintenance capacity announced in early March, which will reduce the supply of PTA to a certain extent and delay the accumulation of PTA inventory.
3. MEG supply and demand are tightly balanced
Second Quarter B2 Increasing supply in the alcohol market: Due to the recent impact of the cost-effectiveness of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol, oil-based equipment has been intensively switched back. At the same time, coal-based equipment has increased the load of ethylene glycol equipment due to the rebound in profits, which will offset part of the domestic ethylene glycol production in the second quarter. The maintenance of alcohol equipment and the low import volume are good news. In the second quarter, the new ethylene glycol production capacity is planned to be put into production around 4.5 million tons. After the new device is put into operation, the actual domestic supply of ethylene glycol will increase intensively, and the monthly output of ethylene glycol in the second quarter will continue to reach a new historical high.
Demand is better in the second quarter: as the textile, clothing and beverage industries enter demand,In the second quarter, the demand for polyester will continue to recover. At the same time, the cash flow profit performance of polyester is better, which will help the load of polyester factories to remain high. According to the currently announced maintenance and new production capacity plans, polyester monthly sales in the second quarter The output will exceed 5 million tons, and the overall ethylene glycol demand performance in the second quarter is relatively optimistic. Taken together, the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol will maintain a state of double growth in supply and demand in the second quarter. The supply increase will be larger, which will gradually fill the previous supply gap. In the second quarter, ethylene glycol supply and demand will maintain a tight balance.
Overall, due to the rapid expansion of polyester raw materials in the first half of the year, the supply of domestic polyester raw materials increased in the second quarter. PX and MEG, which are highly dependent on foreign countries, can almost completely consume the new production capacity. In the second quarter, PX is destocking and MEG is slightly accumulating inventory, while PTA, which has extremely low external dependence, will face greater inventory accumulation pressure. </p
