PTA ushered in a large-scale maintenance window in April, and PTA spot suppliers frequently made good news. On March 24, some PTA suppliers announced the implementation of reductions in the April contract: Yisheng announced that the April PTA contract will be based on the annual contract quantity. 80% supply; Hengli Petrochemical’s April PTA contract supply ratio is 70%; a supplier in South China plans to reduce the contract volume in April, and the specific reduction situation is being negotiated; a supplier in East China’s April contract volume is supplied at 50%, etc.
At the same time, other PTA factory equipment rushed to announce maintenance.
Recently, PTA social inventory and registered warehouse receipts have continued to decline.
At present, the operating rate of PTA equipment is basically maintained at around 80%, and the market has been mainly destocking. As of last Friday, PTA social inventory was at 3.5787 million tons, a decrease from last week It reached 3.96 percentage points, the largest weekly decline after the Spring Festival. Judging from the volume of registered warehouse receipts in the futures market, the volume of registered warehouse receipts for PTA this week reached 351,900, which has been in a downward trend since March 2, indicating that the market supply has been relatively shrinking, resulting in a decline in the volume of registered warehouse receipts and skewed supply. Tight, market pressure continues to decline.
Judging from the above maintenance situation, PTA equipment will undergo centralized maintenance from March to April. We estimate that the PTA loss in March will reach 1.06 million tons, and the estimated loss in April will be At 1.1424 million tons.
From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the centralized maintenance of multiple devices, contract supply has decreased. It is estimated that if there is no significant increase in new devices in April, the overall supply will be slightly biased. Low, expected to be around 4.23 million tons. At the same time, the downstream polyester maintains a high load. The recent operating load of polyester companies is at a high level of more than 90%. In the state of ebb and flow of PTA and polyester supply, it will help to speed up the depletion of PTA. Inventory, the overall market supply is tight. Not only that, PTA processing fees are at an extremely low level, and there is a demand for upward price repair, so PTA is expected to rebound from an oversold price in the near future.
However, it is important to note that the price of PTA is still difficult to rise in the near future. One of the reasons is the current inventory. The absolute value is still high, and these inspections will not digest all warehouse receipts. Another reason is that polyester production and sales are sluggish, and terminal demand is slightly sluggish.
Since the Spring Festival, the recovery of the polyester market and terminal textile companies, as well as the transaction situation, have been better than market expectations.
However, in March, the good news has been digested, and the market is showing a cooling mode. Although the overall operating rate of polyester is slightly higher than that in February, the accumulation of inventory is much higher. on the start-up status of the device. As of March 18, the inventory days of polyester chips were 11 days, an increase of 2 days from last week; the inventory days of polyester staple fiber were -10 days, an increase of 5 days from last week; the inventory days of polyester filament POY, FDY, and DTY The number of days were 13.3 days, 18.5 days, and 23.9 days respectively, which were 3 days, 2.7 days, and 1.9 days higher than last week.
Although the operating rate of terminal textile enterprises has rebounded to 83.48%, it should be noted that due to the increase in raw material prices, terminal textiles are more cautious about receiving new orders. From China Textile Judging from the city’s trading volume, this week was relatively weak, with the total volume below 8 million meters, and the trading volume was slightly light. In the later period, polyester companies are also facing greater destocking pressure, and the demand side has doubts about the sustainability of PTA’s support.
On the other hand, the early rise in PTA was driven by the cost side. Currently, international crude oil prices rise and fall frequently. International crude oil prices began to fall back in early March, and even more so on March 18. It fell sharply, falling as much as 9% during the session. From a fundamental perspective, there are no obvious negative factors driving oil prices down.
In fact, OPEC+ slowed down its production resumption process at the beginning of the month, and Saudi Arabia insisted on voluntary production cuts. As the global epidemic is brought under control, crude oil demand is expected to recover.
The editor believes that the main factor affecting PTA in the short term is still the cost side, followed by terminal market procurement and the dominant factors of supply and demand. Therefore, the follow-up focus will be on the impact of the actual situation of crude oil on its cost. </p
