China’s ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol butyl ether market price stopped falling this week and rebounded. The reason for the increase in market price is that some low-priced supplies are sold out. The biggest boosting factor is nothing less than the dynamic influence of Saudi Arabia’s installations. While the port remains on the sidelines, domestic offers take the lead in rising, boosting market sentiment. The downstream industry has no choice but to accept it. Prices continue to rise this week. So far, East China’s ethylene glycol butyl prices have The cash price of ether bulk water rose to about 16,800 yuan/ton, which was about 1,700 yuan/ton higher than last week’s closing price. The barreled price of diethylene glycol butyl ether in East China is around 17,300 yuan/ton, which is about 450 yuan/ton higher than last week’s closing price. From the perspective of the Saudi factory, there is no official document announcement yet, but why the market response is so intense, it seems that “a single spark can start a prairie fire”, Zhuochuang Information will conduct a detailed analysis below.
Due to China’s ethylene glycol butyl ether industry The development started late. In 2007, Jiangsu Yida’s 10,000 tons/year device was put into operation. The development history is only 14 years. The initial domestic demand is large, and the industry is almost monopolized by imports. In 2009, Jiangsu Dena Chemical Co., Ltd. 60,000 tons The ton/year device was officially put into operation and expanded to 80,000 tons in 2011. China’s ethylene glycol butyl ether industry has begun to take shape. At the same time, competition between domestic and imported products has become increasingly fierce. Related companies applied to the Ministry of Commerce twice in 2013 and 2018. Relevant tax rates are levied on major dumping countries. European and American goods have basically withdrawn from the domestic market after April 2018. However, goods from Saudi Arabia and Taiwan Province have rapidly replenished the domestic market. In 2020, China’s import dependence is as high as 81.7%.
The first batch of Saudi Arabia in July 2017 The supply of goods entered the Chinese market. As of the end of 2017, Saudi Arabia occupied the third place among China’s ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol butyl ether import source countries and regions with an import volume of 17,400 tons, accounting for 11.14%. This proportion was in 2018 -In 2020, they are 35.43%, 53.75%, and 46.94% respectively. Specifically, looking at the 2020 data, Saudi Arabia’s import volume of ethylene glycol butyl ether is about 67,600 tons, with imports accounting for 45.87%. The total import volume of diethylene glycol butyl ether is about 22,100 tons, with imports accounting for 56.31%. Saudi Arabia has occupied half of the import market. Import dynamics have an extremely prominent impact on the supply side. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2020, a certain Saudi ship Arrivals delayed imports due to the impact of the public health incident, and the market rebounded quickly. At that time, the arrivals were only about 2,000 tons. However, market rumors this time will affect the subsequent arrivals in the second quarter. In addition, a large part of the price increase this time comes from The European and American markets are out of stock, domestic products are accepting more export orders, and there is a maintenance plan for the ethylene oxide unit at Dana’s factory in the second quarter. Considering the situation of domestic products and Saudi Arabia, the market increase is relatively reasonable.
There has been no specific announcement on the impact of the Saudi installation, but judging from the direct downstream feedback, the reduction in Saudi Arabia in April is already a high probability event, and there will be industry He said that the price in the Chinese market is high, and other foreign companies can supplement the supply. From the perspective of import trends, more than 90% of Korean goods are exported to the Chinese market, and the additional volume is limited again. Malaysia mainly guarantees the Southeast Asian market, and Taiwan Province has recently placed orders from Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia. In addition to the scheduled arrival, the subsequent import quantity is expected to be limited. According to Zhuochuang’s current statistics, South Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan Province are expected to have 3,400 tons of goods coming to the East China market in April. The overall supply is at a low position, so the supply is still There is a certain positive boost.
Judging from the subsequent market trends, industry demand is off-season in the second quarter, and the current market price is high. Downstream may seek related alternative products, and the demand side will bring limited support. , but the supply reduction has become more obvious, and sellers have a pull-up mentality. Under the game of supply and demand, the subsequent market trend is still unclear. It is recommended that industry players pay more attention to market news trends in the near future and participate in the market flexibly.
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