“The bustle of the world is all for profit; the bustle of the world is all for profit.” The same is true for bulk textile raw materials. Buying low and selling high is an eternal truth. But now oil prices have plummeted for a long time, and spot prices of PTA and ethylene glycol have also fallen sharply. Once the raw materials are discouraged, the market is full of bearish voices.
Polyester factory: holding a “money printing machine” is a problem!
Since the 10th of this month, the profits of polyester filament POY150D/48F have continued to rise, with the highest point extending to around 1,200 yuan/ton, while a downward trend began last week.
Although polyester filament has a strong advantage in terms of profit, the terminal demand for goods is less than expected, coupled with the low production and sales data for two weeks, resulting in the inventory of upstream polyester factories. A small amount has been accumulated. Although some factories have price reduction promotions, the production and sales situation is not optimistic. On the one hand, because most downstream users have a stocking cycle of around 30-60 days, they currently prefer to consume raw materials on hand. In addition, domestic and foreign demand orders are weak, and procurement The raw material cycle will be delayed.
On the other hand, in the face of the continued high raw material gray fabric market and the current foreign trade situation, the vast majority of small and medium-sized mainland textile enterprises have adopted continued and stable production and operations, and strived to reduce “double-end inventory”. To ensure normal production and operation. Under the restraint of terminal demand, market purchase expectations are sluggish. It is understood that traders in the light textile market in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places not only lower prices to a large extent, but also purchase “small quantities, multiple batches, and high requirements” has increased significantly.
According to the research of many coastal textile companies, a company with 20,000 spindles and more than 100 people has an operating rate of more than 90%. It produces about 5 tons of pure cotton yarn per day and consumes 5.5 tons of cotton. Around tons. There are many such small and medium-sized factories in the local area. The usual raw material cotton inventory is around 200 tons. On average, they are replenished once a week, and about 20 tons of cotton are purchased at a time. Yarn inventories are also being kept to a minimum. For the same company mentioned above, it is rare to see a large amount of finished products in inventory. Since most of the products they make are domestic sales orders, many companies joke that “the warehouse is on the car.” When raw materials and products are at artificially controlled minimum values, companies that sell spot goods will not have any pressure. Of course, the abundant supply market and convenient purchase and sale circulation also allow companies to have no worries and concentrate on completing each order to obtain normal operating benefits.
The textile markets in coastal areas find a way out: Prices have fallen back
The market after the year Performance has made many textile people realize that this year’s market conditions will not necessarily be much better than last year. Especially recently, the epidemic situation in Europe has worsened again, and many countries have once again started the “city closure” mode. In addition, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia and other countries has weakened, production has gradually resumed, and they have also begun to compete for China’s foreign trade orders. The absence of foreign trade orders has made competition in the domestic market more intense.
From the perspective of production activities reflected in power generation, industrial production is at a high level of prosperity, especially the output of steel, cement and other building materials has increased significantly, and the output of raw materials such as ethylene and chemical fiber has also increased. Significant growth; in contrast, the output growth of end products such as cloth and automobiles is relatively limited, reflecting that end consumption still needs to recover. While domestic terminal product output is slowly growing, the high growth in raw material output may reflect strong overseas demand for raw materials and the accumulation of raw material inventories.
Therefore, judging from the above situation, the textile industry is likely to be a process of accumulating inventory throughout the year. Last year’s inventory has not been fully digested. This year’s inventory Inventory is coming again, forcing many companies to find a way out. Following the market trends and being the first to sell goods at low prices may be the best way out for this part of fabrics.
According to feedback from some textile companies in Jiangsu, Shandong and other places, since mid-March, the consumption of cloth factories, fabrics and clothing has The wait-and-see atmosphere at the terminal is strong, the phenomenon of overstocking is becoming more and more prominent, the textile markets in coastal areas have experienced corrections, and the confidence of the downstream industry chain has been shaken.
According to the white gray fabric cluster enterprises, the price of raw yarn has dropped compared with the previous period, enterprises have reduced stocking, fabric prices have followed the decline slightly, and the market wait-and-see sentiment has increased; the current start-up of enterprises is basically stable. , new orders have decreased, and orders are expected to continue to weaken in the later period.
According to reports from yarn-dyed fabric cluster enterprises, the price of raw material yarn-dyed yarn has weakened recently. Enterprises have reduced raw material inventories and focused on buying as they are used; the overall market purchase and sales have become sluggish. , the number of new orders is less than expected, and the export situation has not changed significantly from the previous period; at present, the production of enterprises is basically stable, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook.
According to denim cluster enterprises, the price of indigo dye has increased sharply recently, while the price of denim yarn has dropped slightly and is still at a high level. Downstream enterprises are more cautious in placing orders; the current production of enterprises is basically normal. The later market development depends on the price trend of dyes and denim yarn.
At the same time, some weaving companies have started to sell fabrics. Even the relatively hot-selling four-way elastic has been sold at low prices recently. Taking 100D four-sided bullet as an example, there have been many orders for millions of meters in the market recently, and the general price is above 2.5 yuan/meter. However, some weavers have begun to sell goods, and the price has dropped to 2.3 yuan/meter, and the quality is still high, not low-quality and low-price treated fabrics.
In the international economic situation As the domestic and foreign trade trends of textiles are unclear, companies’ psychological expectations for stockpiling are not high, and stable operations are still their first choice. In the face of factors such as macro-financial inflation, repeated epidemics, changes in industrial supply and demand, and Sino-US relations, factors that restrict the textile market in the short term have increased, and it will take time and space to further release. </p
