Saudi Arabia is ready to support OPEC+ in extending oil production cuts into May and June
Sources said that Saudi Arabia believes that global oil demand is not strong enough to restore more production capacity. Therefore, Saudi Arabia is prepared to support OPEC+ in extending oil production cuts to May and June, and is also prepared to extend voluntary production cuts. Affected by this news, international oil prices turned from falling to rising. As of early morning today, WTI May crude oil futures closed up $0.59, or 0.97%, at $61.56 per barrel. Brent May crude oil futures closed up $0.41, or 0.63%, at $64.98 per barrel.
On the day of Myanmar’s Army Day military parade, demonstrations broke out in many places
On March 27, the day Myanmar held its Army Day military parade, street demonstrations broke out in many places across the country, and military and police opened fire. The United Nations said the conflict resulted in the deaths of at least dozens of people, including children. Some foreign media said the death toll was at least 114, the highest number of deaths in one day since February. Three days ago, the Myanmar military released 628 protesters.
After the bloody conflict on Army Day in Myanmar, the defense ministers of 12 countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany issued a joint statement condemning the Myanmar military, Call for an end to violence. U.S. President Joe Biden described the incident as “absolutely unacceptable” and said sanctions were being planned in response.
Since the middle of this month, demonstrators have been photographed using petrol bombs to fight back against the military and police. Myanmar military leaders recently promised to hold a new election while warning the demonstrators of violence. Affecting stability and security,” the authorities will do their best to protect the people and restore peace.
According to the latest news from Reuters, U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi announced on Monday local time that all trade between the United States and Myanmar will be immediately suspended. This decision will continue until Myanmar’s democratically elected government comes to power. .
The Suez Canal crisis is over, the “Changci” successfully escaped
Yesterday, multiple media reported citing news from the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) that the giant cargo ship “Changci”, which had blocked the canal for nearly a week, had completely returned to normal navigation. The vessel involved was currently sailing away from the incident under the escort of tugboats. Discovery scene.
According to the previous plan, after the “Changci” is towed to the Great Bitter Lake area of the canal for technical maintenance, the canal’s Traffic will be restored. SCA’s next focus will be to restore navigation in the canal as soon as possible to clear the nearly 400 cargo ships blocked at the site as soon as possible. Earlier expectations were that it would take about three days to a week to clear the congested vessel. Container logistics company Hapag-Lloyd expects traffic in the Suez Canal to resume later on Monday.
According to earlier SCA statistics, a total of 19,000 cargo ships passed through the canal in 2020, with an average of 51.5 ships per day.
In order to move this 1,300-foot-long, 220,000-ton giant container ship from the river embankment, the canal authorities mobilized a multinational rescue team. There are currently 10 tugboats and Special dredging equipment. During the entire excavation process, approximately 20,000 tons of sediment were dug out. In addition to rescue equipment, Monday’s high tide also played a key role in the cargo ship’s escape.
Three commodity futures exchanges reminded to strengthen risk prevention during the Qingming Festival holiday
On March 29, The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice to adjust the trading margin ratio and price limit range of some products during the Qingming Festival: At the closing settlement of the first trading day without a unilateral market since April 1 (Thursday), aluminum, zinc, The trading margin ratio for lead and nickel futures contracts is adjusted to 9%, and the price limit is adjusted to 7%.
The notice stated that the recent domestic and international situations are complex and changeable, and there are many uncertain factors affecting market operation. All member units must do a good job in risk prevention. , appropriately increase the margin collection ratio based on the investor’s position and risk profile.
On the same day, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices respectively, reminding member units to strengthen market risk prevention during the Qingming Festival holiday and do a good job in investor risk warnings. The price limits and trading margin levels of futures contracts will be adjusted.
The off-season is back again? Thermal coal futures closed at daily limit
On Monday, black futures led the rise in the domestic commodity market. The main thermal coal contract has risen for seven consecutive days. Yesterday, the daily limit was closed. This is the second daily limit after half a month, setting a new high in two months. Double coke prices rose sharply together, and coking coal prices once rose by more than 8%. As of the close, the main thermal coal contract 2105 closed at 731.8 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 120 yuan/ton compared with the same period in February. Coking coal and coke closed up 6.64% and 5.53% respectively.
There is such a “V shape”Researcher Tu Weihua believes that the seventh round of reductions in steel mills has basically been implemented, and the profits of coking companies have shrunk significantly. Although the coking operating rate has dropped month-on-month, the decrease is not significant. Some coking companies in Shanxi and Tangshan have limited production due to environmental protection. Overall, Construction starts remain high. In addition, due to vehicle transportation controls and blast furnace production restrictions in the Tangshan area, coke companies are still under pressure to deliver. Overall, the supply side is expected to shrink in the short term, prices are relatively firm, and the market trend is expected to maintain a wide oscillation pattern under the influence of finished products.
Under the influence of strong double focus, iron ore closed up more than 4% again yesterday, further establishing a rebound trend. Under the collective rise in raw material and fuel prices, the finished product end was not to be outdone. The main hot coil and rebar prices closed up 3.72% and 2.56% respectively, and both reached new highs in this round of growth.
Xie Xu, chief analyst of Western Futures, believes that in March, the steel market gradually entered the traditional peak season, and demand picked up rapidly. The trading volume of mainstream traders reached more than 290,000 tons last Friday. The apparent demand for rebar has reached more than 4 million tons, inventories continue to decline rapidly, and peak season characteristics are very obvious. Demand is the main support for prices. In addition, Tangshan’s production restriction policy has recently been intensified, and the supply side has been suppressed and even faced expectations of contraction. Against the backdrop of expectations of contraction on the supply side, finished product prices have risen sharply. It is worth mentioning that due to the impact of production restrictions in Tangshan, steel billet prices in Tangshan have risen rapidly, and the price difference between rebar and steel billets has narrowed significantly. The sharp increase in billet prices has also accelerated the upward pace of rebar prices.
It is understood that at present, the demand resilience of real estate and other downstream industries is relatively high, and the depletion of steel inventories at the end of the month has begun to accelerate, boosting steel prices. Economic data for 2021 released in March showed that real estate investment increased by 38.3% year-on-year and 15.7% compared with the same period in 2019; among which, new housing starts increased by 64% and completions increased by 40%. Xie Yubo, a black analyst at Yingda Futures, believes that from a data point of view, real estate investment has once again seen a substantial increase, especially new housing starts. Although there is a low base effect in 2020, it is also higher than in 2019. The large growth rate shows that after the epidemic, the real estate industry’s demand for steel remains resilient. Judging from inventory data, in the last week of March, rebar mills and social warehouses totaled 17.2629 million tons, a decrease of 696,100 tons compared with last week.
“The recent significant increase in cement prices across the country also indicates that the downstream project operating rate is relatively high, the demand for raw material procurement is relatively strong, and short-term inventory may be accelerated, thus driving the original demand for black series products. Prices are rising,” Xie Yubo said.
In terms of hot coils, Li Gang, senior researcher of Zhonghui Futures Steel, believes that yesterday’s hot coil 2105 contract increased its position by more than 30,000 lots, and the price hit a new high, standing firm at 5,300 yuan/ton. . From a fundamental point of view, Tangshan’s production restrictions have most obviously suppressed the output of hot coils. In the previous month, the output of hot coils dropped to 3.07 million tons for four consecutive months. It was not until the maintenance of the hot rolling production line was completed last week that the output rebounded. Judging from the currently announced policies, it is expected that production restrictions in Tangshan will become normalized in the future, and the increase in hot coil production will be limited. In terms of demand, the apparent demand for hot coils has increased to 3.38 million tons for five consecutive years after the Spring Festival, reaching the highest value in the same period in the past five years. Because hot rolls are rare species with good reality and good expectations, the short-term upward trend is difficult to change. It is worth noting that after the rapid price rise, the resistance of downstream companies has become stronger. Many orders need to be negotiated again. The game between upstream and downstream has gradually intensified. Speculative demand may be suppressed to a certain extent. It is not ruled out that prices will rise after the price rises. A callback occurs.
In terms of iron ore, Liang Haikuan, an iron ore researcher at Founder mid-term futures, believes that the market’s previous concerns about the weakening trend of iron ore demand will be alleviated in the short term. The collective correction in charge-end valuations caused by environmental protection and production restrictions has come to an end for the time being. Currently, the operating rate of overseas steel mills has gradually returned to pre-epidemic levels, and the potential for further production increases is limited. If the crude steel production reduction is expected to be achieved, there will be a gap in global crude steel supply and demand, and high profits for finished products are expected to continue. For iron ore, although the medium-term supply and demand balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen, the high profits of finished products and the high basis of the market have strong support for iron ore prices. Before the price of finished products does not weaken significantly, even if the subsequent hot metal production declines again, it will not have a substantial negative impact on iron ore prices. Operationally, the short-term bias remains bullish. </p
