Introduction: Since March, the maintenance situation of PTA equipment has gradually become clearer, and supply and demand improvements have provided support. However, the crude oil market is not directional and has experienced large fluctuations in recent times. The PTA market has no choice but to hibernate and wait for the coming of spring.
Recently, the crude oil market has been intertwined with long and short positions, with prices rising and falling frequently. On the one hand, a container ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking crude oil transportation and triggering supply concerns, which boosted crude oil prices. Later, it was found that the impact of the channel blockage was limited. This news only gave weak support to the crude oil market. On the other hand, the haze of reduced demand caused by the epidemic still hangs over the market, and the crude oil market fluctuates frequently under the intertwining of bulls and bears. Although overnight crude oil rebounded slightly under the expectation that OPEC+ major oil-producing countries will maintain production in May, the later trend is still hardly optimistic.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
However, PTA equipment maintenance plans are frequent, and many PTAs Manufacturing companies have reduced contract supply in April. Among them, Yisheng Petrochemical will supply 80% of the annual contract amount in April, Hengli Petrochemical will supply 70% of the contracted amount in April, and some East China manufacturers will supply 50%, with spot circulation. Supply is tight. As the supply side further tightens, the fundamentals continue to improve, which has boosted market sentiment. In the short term, PTA prices still have a certain resilience.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In terms of demand, the comprehensive start-up of polyester maintains a high level of 89.93%, and rigid demand supports the PTA market . However, orders in the weaving market are weak, terminal demand is not transmitted smoothly to the upstream, polyester production and sales have always been difficult to improve, and polyester fiber inventories are on an upward trend. The current overall inventory of polyester staple fiber is about -3-(-7) days, and the overall inventory of polyester filament is 6-11 days, of which POY inventory is 1-5 days, FDY inventory is 5-9 days, and DTY inventory is 17- 21 days.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Taken together, PTA devices are undergoing centralized maintenance and supply pressure has improved; however, some downstream Merchants’ purchasing intentions weakened, polyester production and sales were light, and weaving factories mainly consumed raw material inventories. However, polyester and weaving operations maintain high operating rates, so the PTA oversupply problem is alleviated. In addition, PTA processing fees are low, which provides support for futures. However, the decline in crude oil has weakened the cost side, and the PTA market may remain volatile in the short term. </p
