As of April 6, the PTA processing fee was around 379 yuan/ton, which was a slight increase of 20 yuan/ton from the average monthly processing fee of 358 yuan/ton in March 2021. However, the processing fee was still at a low level, compared with last year. During the same period, the price dropped by 329 yuan/ton from 708 yuan/ton, or 46.47%. As we all know, the pricing of PTA consists of two parts: cost and processing fee. Only when the processing fee is more than 400 yuan/ton, manufacturing companies can make profits. Under the current processing fee, most companies are in a state of loss, so the PTA processing fee What are the reasons for the low price, and what is the future direction of PTA? The editor will answer the questions for you next.
1. Increase in cost PX and acetic acid price
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From the perspective of direct raw material PX, as of April 6, the price of Asian PX in CFR China Taiwan/Mainland is 811.67 US dollars/ton, which is an increase of 126.67 US dollars compared with the average PX external price in January 2021. / ton, an increase of 18%. Judging from another main raw material, acetic acid, the low-end price of acetic acid on the 6th was 6,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,006 yuan/ton from the average price of 4,394 in January, an increase of 45.65%. The current price of PTA is 4,503 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan/ton, or 19%, from the average price in January of 3,783 yuan/ton. PTA’s own growth rate is far less than the cost-side growth rate.
2. PTA social inventory is high and new production capacity is constantly being released
As of March 31, PTA social inventory was at 5.609 million tons , due to the large number of equipment maintenance in March, the inventory increased slightly by 115,600 tons compared with February. However, compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased significantly by 2.459 million tons. Last year, affected by the epidemic and the commissioning of new PTA equipment, PTA inventory continued to accumulate. However, in 2021, new PTA production capacity will continue to be released. Currently, Fujian Baihong’s 2.4 million tons and Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons units have been put into operation in the first quarter. In the second quarter, Yisheng New Materials’ 6.6 million tons of new production capacity will be put into operation. With high inventories, the release of new production capacity is just adding insult to injury. Although PTA equipment maintenance has been increasing recently and construction starts have dropped significantly, which is conducive to an increase in PTA market prices, high PTA inventories will still inhibit its upside.
Overall, the current crude oil market is ups and downs, and the trend is quite volatile. The fundamentals of raw material PX are acceptable, and for PTA Market support is average. From the perspective of PTA’s own supply and demand, the current PTA maintenance capacity is 14.7 million tons, and there are maintenance plans for the subsequent Hengli 1#5# totaling 4.7 million tons and the Xinxin Fengming 1# 2.5 million tons unit. Short-term supply reduction will benefit PTA The market is rising, but the high social inventory of PTA, the continuous outflow of warehouse receipts, and the relatively average production and sales of downstream polyester will still be negative for its rise. It is expected that PTA will fluctuate slightly in a short period of time, but the increase will not be large. </p
