Since 2021, the PTA market has shown a volatile and upward market pattern as a whole due to the interaction between macroeconomics and supply and demand. Especially after the Spring Festival, PTA supply is expected to decrease, and the polyester production load is better than expected. Superimposed on domestic and foreign In anticipation of the easing policy, the overall trend of commodities is improving. The PTA market has experienced a rare rise since last year. After reaching a high of 5,000 yuan/ton at the end of February, due to the lack of profits and downstream follow-up, the market fell into a correction. The market fluctuates within a narrow range.
With the recent intensification of PTA maintenance and destocking in the PTA market, coupled with the release of macro-negative sentiment, the international crude oil price has been boosted by the sharp rise, and PTA prices have stopped falling and gone up. But it has not yet left the shock range.
Short-term destocking efforts are relatively strong
In 2021, under the expectation of a substantial increase in production capacity, processing The range can still stimulate the start-up of PTA production companies to remain at a high level. From the beginning of 2021 to mid-February, the overall average start-up load of domestic PTA remained at a high level of more than 85%, and product supply pressure was greater. However, in mid-February, as the processing range was Compressed to around 300 yuan/ton, domestic PTA manufacturers have increased their routine maintenance plans. In addition, after the Spring Festival, the start-up of downstream polyester production is better than the same period in previous years. The demand is good, the start-up load is high, and PTA has periodically experienced supply and demand destocking. As of April 14 Japan’s domestic social inventory is around 4.78 million tons, with daily supply and demand destocking of 14,300 tons, down 110,000 tons from the high of 4.89 million tons in early March. It is expected that the overall PTA social inventory will drop to around 4.65 million tons by the end of April. On the supply side It is a short-term positive for the market, but in the medium and long term, the overall inventory pressure is still relatively large.
Future market expectations
In the context of the weakening of pure macro-expectations, the commodity market The market as a whole is in shock, and it is difficult for PTA prices to get out of the independent market.
With the continuous compression of the processing area, some less competitive PTA units will be shut down for a long time; downstream polyester has good profits, high operating load, and acceptable demand for raw materials , the periodic improvement in supply and demand still supports the PTA market, but the overall PTA inventory is still high, the continued outflow of warehouse receipts since March, and poor downstream production and sales are still constraining the market’s upward momentum.
Bad game, the short-term PTA market continues to treat the current market with a shock mentality. In the medium and long term, the continued narrowing of the processing range is a relative safety margin for bulls (the PTA device shutdown must be tracked in a timely manner Situation), high downstream demand load and production and sales are the driving forces behind the price rebound. It is expected that the PTA market will have rebound momentum for a long time in the future under the resonance of macro and short-term supply and demand improvements, and it will take time to gain space. </p