Goldman Sachs is bullish on the outlook for short-term oil demand, but the opposite is true when it comes to the long-term outlook for commodities. In a Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs expects “weak” demand for oil from the transportation industry after 2025.
Goldman Sachs analysts said in the report: “The government’s push to improve efficiency and reduce emissions Policies have the greatest impact on the demand for road transportation. Driven by economic growth and increased consumption in emerging markets, petrochemical products will become the new favorite for oil demand.”
Goldman Sachs The transportation industry is the largest crude oil consuming industry, but the widespread use of electric vehicles will weaken crude oil demand, which may peak in 2026. The investment bank believes that oil demand will never return to pre-COVID-19 levels.
Bloomberg’s report pointed out that in addition to tightening emissions regulations in Europe and the United States and rising electric vehicle sales, many employees working from home for a long time will also have a negative impact on oil demand , because 43% of oil consumption comes from passenger cars.
However, in the short term, Goldman Sachs is quite optimistic about the development of oil. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs predicted a strong rebound in oil demand in the summer, noting that this would require OPEC to further loosen production controls and restore 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter. However, given Iran’s plans to increase its own production, OPEC may need to maintain output, other things being equal.
Goldman Sachs expects that oil prices will benefit from a rebound in demand, with the Brent index It will reach US$75/barrel in the third quarter. In addition, the global economic outlook is bright, driven by the stimulus policies of various governments, especially the United States.