1. International oil prices are rising steadily.
Figure 1 International crude oil price trend chart in 2020
In this cycle (April 29 to May 5, 2021), international oil prices are on the rise. The market remains optimistic about the demand outlook, and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories boosted oil prices. However, the epidemic situation in India and other overseas countries continues to worsen, suppressing the increase in oil prices. As of the close on May 5, 2021, WTI ranged from 63.58 to 65.89 US dollars per barrel, and Brent ranged from 67.25 to 68.96 US dollars per barrel.
A total of 98 companies participated in next week’s trend survey, including 55 oil refining companies, 16 trading companies, 10 port and warehousing companies, and financial companies. 17 homes. The overall results can be seen that “up” expectations account for the largest proportion, with the bullish camp increasing by 5% compared with last week, and the bearish camp shrinking by 8% compared with last week.
The main points of the bullish camp are as follows:
1. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell more than expected .
2. Many states in the United States have relaxed epidemic control, and the market remains optimistic about the demand outlook.
3. China’s economic data performed strongly.
The main views of the bearish camp are as follows:
1. The epidemic in India continues to worsen.
2. OPEC+ gradually increases production
2. New material polyester chips follow the rise in a narrow range .
Figure 2 Domestic polyester chip price trends in 2020
During the May Day holiday, some polyester chip companies raised their quotations. The main reason is that the polymerization cost has risen sharply before the holiday, and slices have become the first cash flow loss among polyester varieties. In addition, crude oil has increased significantly during the holiday, so we are worried that the losses will become more serious in the future. The upward adjustment is within the scope of reasonable consideration, especially in the Although there is not much pressure on their own inventory, in reality, downstream companies are not buying into the upward trend due to sufficient pre-holiday stocking, and most polyester companies report that orders are light. Of course, more production companies are also considering taking the opportunity to ship goods, especially under the sentiment that crude oil continues to rise in the short term. Combined with the gradual increase in pressure on their own slice inventory, some companies have certain shipments. The ex-factory price is the same as before the holiday, with the highest production and sales reaching 200. %nearby. In addition, there are also companies that are optimistic about the post-holiday market. With their own inventories at low levels, they are closed or reluctant to sell during the holiday period
2. Regenerating the industrial chain The trend is weak.
Figure 3 Domestic recycled PET bottle flakes price trends in 2020
After the May Day holiday, trading in the recycled PET market is still deadlocked. Although there is no pressure on the inventory of downstream recycled chemical fiber factories, new orders are still limited, and procurement remains in line with the market. The weather is gradually getting warmer, but the recent continuous rainfall in Guangdong has limited the recycling of old materials to a certain extent. The price of wool has not changed much. However, I heard that some packaging stations in the southern market plan to convert to clean bricks. It is expected that cleaning plants may have operations in mid-to-late May. It is possible to lower the purchase price of clean bricks.
Weak terminal demand is still the biggest constraint on the recycled polyester market. April to July is a period of flat demand in the hollow market. Coupled with the recurrence of epidemics in India, Europe and the United States, companies lack new orders. Some companies have temporarily stopped their hollow production lines. The inventory of finished products of hollow manufacturers that have not yet stopped continues to increase, and the inventory reaches the end of half a month. It doesn’t take a month. Recycled fiber manufacturers continue to offer profits on shipments to maintain corporate cash flow.
To sum up: At present, domestic recycled chemical fiber companies, on the basis of maintaining regular production, and against the background of bearish expectations for the market outlook, continue to purchase according to the market, with little intention to stock up. , wait and see carefully.