Compared with the “not prosperous peak season” of “Gold, Three and Silver”, after May Day, although the textile market entered the traditional off-season, it has emerged from the “off-season but not off-season” market. Entering May, bulk commodities, especially black and colored ones, started a roller coaster trend. At the beginning of the month, commodities rose across the board, and Zheng cotton and Zheng yarn also followed suit. However, on May 13th and 24th, the market experienced another 2 The market fell sharply, with Zheng cotton and Zheng yarn falling nearly 700 points from their highs. Cotton and yarn prices went in opposite directions this week. As of May 27, 2021, CYC32S pure cotton yarn closed at 25,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the same period last week. The CC3128B cotton index closed at 15,772 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton from the same period last week.
Cotton futures have continued to fall in the past two days. Without any obvious negative news, the price reached a low of 15,300 yuan/ton on the 27th, hitting a new low in more than a month, which also brought joy to some and sorrow to others. Traders are happy to see a moderate decline. Shipments have accelerated significantly in the past few days. Some small traders have already sold out their goods, and most of them have raised the basis difference by 50-100 yuan/ton. In terms of textile companies, yarn shipments are still not a problem at present, and the decline in cotton has not yet been transmitted to yarn. Due to good downstream demand, most are optimistic about the market outlook, and there are many replenishment stocks at bargain hunting. There are a large number of spinning stocks from 15300-15600. Some textile companies have already reached the capital limit by setting prices, so it is expected that if prices continue to fall, there will be a certain amount of panic in the market.
In terms of cotton yarn, after entering mid-May, The price of cotton yarn began to rise following the futures, and most textile companies raised their prices by about 500 yuan/ton. The order scheduling period of most companies is about one month, but some companies have shorter order scheduling periods, mainly because of market price fluctuations and do not accept long-term orders, focusing on production and sales. The original “yarn dances with flowers” cotton yarn price is no longer effective under the support of recent low inventory. It can be seen from this week’s data that although the cotton spot price fell this week with the decline of Zheng cotton, the price of cotton yarn remains strong. Mainly because the current spot inventory of textile companies is low and the market is shipping quickly, so companies have no operational pressure for the time being. Therefore, cotton yarn prices are supported, and textile companies are also more willing to raise prices. From the perspective of profit, the current theoretical profit of spinning can reach more than 2,000 yuan/ton (using the price of cotton raw materials 20 days ago). It can be seen from the trend of cotton inventories of textile enterprises that many textile enterprises chose to replenish their inventories in mid-May, when cotton prices were experiencing the first wave of decline. The cotton raw material inventory of most textile companies basically remains at about 40 days.
In terms of imported yarn, as of May 27, the price of imported yarn C32S with inner plate printing yarn was 24,600 yuan/ton, the price of C32S of imported yarn was 24,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Pakistan C20S was 21,600 yuan/ton. Both were the same as last week. As for the external market, except for India, where prices have increased due to reduced production capacity, prices in other major importing countries have remained basically the same. From the perspective of import volume, my country’s imported cotton yarn volume once again exceeded 200,000 tons in April, reaching 216,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.4%, a month-on-month increase of 3.3%, and an increase of 12.2% compared with April 2019, exceeding early market expectations. The goods arriving in April were ordered from February to March, and some delayed goods arrived in the port in the early stage. The cost difference is large, and some high-priced goods were sold without loss. my country’s import volume continues to exceed market expectations, and traders report that the market inventory pressure is not great. On the one hand, it is absorbed by downstream demand; on the other hand, the direct import volume of downstream may be increasing. After the Xinjiang cotton ban, downstream terminal apparel brand manufacturers have For those who require a ban on Xinjiang cotton, imported cotton yarn is the main alternative. Most of these orders are long-term orders, and some imported cotton yarns are locked in advance. Therefore, the actual increase in arrival volume is more than direct orders from downstream terminals. Currently, the cost of the arrival volume in May is quite different. There are orders arriving in March and orders arriving in mid-to-late April. From mid-to-low April to mid-to-upper May, the order volume from China increased, mainly concentrated in June shipments. period, so the volume expected to arrive in Hong Kong in May-June may not be small in the future.
Whether the subsequent market will continue to be “not weak in the off-season” remains to be seen. The main reasons are that firstly, the domestic sales market has entered the traditional off-season in June and July; secondly, it is still difficult for textile enterprises to lock in foreign exchange, increase exchange rate fluctuation clauses in contracts, and sign forward foreign exchange settlement and sales agreements with banks. The recent sharp appreciation of the RMB has made exports Enterprises are “suffering”; thirdly, sea freight has soared, shipping space is “hard to find”, and cargo accumulation in some ports in Europe and the United States has led to increased demurrage costs, etc. On the other hand, looking at the international market, the logic of releasing money still exists. Under the premise that easing will eventually be exited, the impact of inflation expectations has gradually weakened, and the market expects the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening to be as early as 2022. This also means that the foundation of this round of commodity bull market has not been destroyed. In the new year, the global cotton planting area will decrease, and there are still certain expectations for a reduction in cotton production. cotton price�There is certain support for cotton yarn prices.