In May, crude oil prices oscillated in the range of 65-70 US dollars per barrel for a month. During this period, the price tested the important mark of US$70/barrel four times, with the highest price touching US$70.24/barrel, and the other three times were below US$70/barrel. Judging from the low point, the closing price remained below US$65/barrel on only one day in May, and remained above US$66/barrel the rest of the time. The price range during the month remained oscillating within a very small range. From a time perspective, as the summer demand season approaches, the time for market changes is getting closer and closer. Judging from the market trend, the bulls seem to have more motivation than the shorts. The bulls have chosen not to break through the nuclear agreement with Iran. There is a huge relationship.
The talks between the United States and Iran affect the market. The only negative factor in the market at present is the peace talks between the United States and Iran. If the peace talks are reached, Iran’s crude oil production will It will quickly enter the market and put huge pressure on the supply side; if the talks between the United States and Iran are not reached, the bulls will actually not dare to make a large-scale attack. After all, this time bomb still exists, and the bulls can only wait until demand actually improves before they can make further progress. Actions.
The recent improvement in U.S. economic data has also given the crude oil market great confidence. The expected recovery of the U.S. economy and the arrival of the U.S. driving season will continue to support oil prices on the demand side. OK. Judging from the current data, the U.S. economy continues to recover and demand is strengthening, which has also offset the decline in Indian crude oil demand to a certain extent. As a result, the market has returned to optimism, with the important support level of $65/barrel. It has never been effectively broken through, and the bulls have shown strong control capabilities.
In addition, after Biden’s $2 trillion economic stimulus plan, he called for a $6 trillion stimulus policy. This policy lasts for a long time and involves each field. After the news was announced, the market’s optimistic expectations returned again, and oil prices took this opportunity to once again launch an attack above 70 US dollars per barrel. The optimism in the financial market combined with the gradual recovery of demand and the maintenance of relatively tight fundamentals gave the market a huge boost. imagination. At this moment, Goldman Sachs came out and said that commodities will continue to face gradually tighter supply in the second half of the year, and there is little evidence that there will be a big enough response on the supply side to derail the bull market. Therefore, with the current relative preference for fundamentals and no major pressure at the macro level, we still have to be wary of the upward risks that Goldman Sachs has been preaching.
Epidemic concerns have been greatly alleviated
As the number of new confirmed cases worldwide continues to decline, The financial market’s concerns about the epidemic are constantly easing. At present, we have rarely heard of factors that the market has started to speculate on the epidemic again, which shows that the epidemic has been eliminated from the trading logic in a short period of time. Despite this, we still have to pay attention to the latest trends in the epidemic, which is related to when the demand side can be fully launched and whether the epidemic factors will continue to suppress oil prices in the future.
As of May 28, the number of newly confirmed cases worldwide in a single day reached 555,000, a decrease of 80,000 compared to the same period the previous week. In terms of regions, there were 360,000 new confirmed cases in Asia, a decrease of 100,000 from the same period last week; 58,000 new confirmed cases in Europe, a decrease of 26,000 from the same period last week; and 18 new confirmed cases in the Americas. million, a decrease of 30,000 from the same period last week. Broken down by country, the United States had 23,000 new confirmed cases that day, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week; India had 180,000 new confirmed cases that day, a decrease of 70,000 from the same period the previous week; Brazil had new confirmed cases in a single day 64,000 people, basically the same as the previous week’s data.
In terms of vaccination, global vaccination reached 29.77 million doses in a single day, of which China administered 15.86 million doses in a single day, an increase of more than 2 million doses/day compared with the previous week’s data. , accounting for more than half of the global daily vaccination volume, the United States vaccinated 1.75 million doses in a single day, a decrease of 50,000 doses compared with the previous week’s data, and India vaccinated 1.47 million doses in a single day, which was basically the same as the previous week. Although the number of vaccinations in the United States and India continues to decline, we have also seen that the number of new confirmed cases of the epidemic in the United States is not very high, and the number of new confirmed cases in India is also declining rapidly. At the same time, there are signs of accelerating vaccination in the UK, Japan, Brazil and other countries, but the daily vaccination volume is still relatively small and not enough to form effective protection in a short period of time.
In the face of the epidemic, as long as there is no large-scale sudden outbreak in a certain country or region, the disruptive factors of the epidemic will not disrupt the rhythm of the market in a short period of time. Now the market is mainly The negative factors are all concentrated on the Iranian issue. Once the Iranian problem comes to light, the bulls seem to have no fear. After all, the fundamentals are relatively good now, and there are no obvious negative factors at the macro level. Goldman Sachs claims We still have to be on guard against upside risks.
<img data-preview-src="" data-preview-group="1" src="http://pic.168tex.com /Cooperation, so this is the key to the United States' eagerness to have a dialogue with China. Now that China and the United States have taken the first step, if China and the United States can reach a certain degree of cooperation in a short period of time, it will be a relatively big benefit to the global macro market.
Last Thursday, Biden announced a new round of stimulus plan with a total scale of US$6 trillion to boost infrastructure and expand social security, which will This is the highest level since World War II. Biden’s pace in economic stimulus is really getting bigger and bigger. The U.S. fiscal deficit will be US$3.7 trillion in 2020, and the fiscal budget deficit in 2021 will be US$2.3 trillion. Amid constant floods, global commodities still face relatively large upward risks.
On the whole, under the premise of launching policies to suppress commodity prices, we still have to be cautious about the current crude oil price. After all, no matter what the fundamentals are , the impact of the macro environment and national policies on prices is our first consideration. </p