Some time ago, although the commodity market was affected by the policy level, all of them experienced a cooling down. Black, non-ferrous, and chemical industries all experienced considerable adjustments. But recently, the commodity market has become hot again, and the varieties that have been significantly adjusted in the early stage have once again experienced a wave of hype, and the overall market atmosphere has once again ignited. However, compared to the black and oil sectors, the recent rebound in the chemical industry has not been strong. For the black and oil varieties that have already risen sharply, can the subsequent chemical industry sector follow suit and accumulate strength to move forward? As a representative variety of the chemical sector, the recent trend of short fiber is also in a tepid market with strong fluctuations. In the future, how much upward momentum will short fiber have? As of the close of trading on Thursday, June 3, 2021, the main 09 contract of short-term futures was quoted at 7,102 yuan, an increase of 0.42%.
High-level fine-tuning has started, and the pace of maintenance has accelerated
From the supply side of polyester staple fiber, there has been an overall improvement in the recent period. Tightened. According to relevant data, in April 2021, driven by optimism about polyester staple fiber processing profits, the basic operating rate remained at a high level of around 97%, with an output of 665,000 tons, which was equivalent to March. The short-term operating rate has remained relatively high since this year.
Considering the pace of equipment maintenance, according to grand information, in May, Fujian Jinlun’s 250,000 tons/year equipment was overhauled on May 10, and the operating rate dropped to about 94%. The output in May is expected to be higher than fell back in April.
Looking at June, the 250,000 tons/year unit of Fujian Jinlun is expected to be shut down on May 10 and is planned to restart in early June. However, the 400,000 tons/year unit of Suqian Yida has been shut down on May 28. Minus 15%, planned maintenance for one month. Maintenance of Jiangsu Huahong and Sanfangxiang’s total 350,000 tons/year capacity has been postponed to mid-June. Jiangyin Huaxi’s 200,000 tons/year unit is scheduled to be overhauled in mid-to-late June. According to the above supply side information, it can be seen that the overall tightness and contraction have provided some support for prices.
In the off-season, the inventory of finished products is accumulated, and the demand is difficult to improve in the short term
From the short fiber demand side, first of all, considering the consumption in the off-season As a result, there are accumulated warehouses of finished products downstream and large inventories of raw materials, making it difficult to improve short-term demand.
The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has weakened slightly, polyester production and sales are relatively light, and short fiber equipment has been overhauled in June. The overall demand is weak, especially since this year, the production and sales rate has been unsatisfactory, and consumption Expected to be weak. Therefore, taken together, short-term demand may not be able to drive prices upward normally.
Inventory pressure is still there, and the upward trend is limited
From the inventory side, polyester staple fiber should have the social Inventory should include short fiber factory inventory, downstream raw material stocking inventory, futures market inventory, and trade circulation inventory. Specifically, as of May 28, according to TTEB statistics, the inventory of polyester staple fiber factories was 4.8 days, an increase of 6.6 days from the end of April; the raw material inventory of downstream polyester yarn factories was 24.1 days, a decrease of 3.1 days from the end of April; The finished product inventory of pure polyester yarn is 13.4 days, an increase of 1.6 days from the end of April. The finished product inventory continues to rise in April. Based on the above data, the analysis shows that the overall inventory pressure of the current polyester staple fiber industry chain still exists, and the impact on its price is negative.
Based on the above point of view, in the short term, affected by equipment maintenance, a slight decrease in construction starts and other supply-side factors, The price may continue to rise. However, due to the weakening of demand due to the off-season and the overall pressure on inventory, the upward resistance of short fiber prices is greater and the upside space is limited. Therefore, the trend may continue to fluctuate in the future. </p