Currently, more than 20 provinces in China have issued new “plastic restriction orders”. Under the new trend of alternatives, degradable plastic materials such as PLA, PBAT, and PHA have attracted attention, and many leading domestic polyester companies, including Hengli and Sanfangxiang, have begun to launch PBAT projects. According to statistics, by 2025, considering the low operating rate of degradable plastic production capacity, China’s production capacity will need to reach 4.76 million tons to meet demand.
The rapid launch of PBAT’s new production capacity will bring the most intuitive consumption of the upstream raw material BOD to 1.7 million tons. This is far from enough current BDO production capacity supply, which directly leads to the BDO shortage.
No one would have thought that BDO, the key raw material of PBAT, would actually become a stuck product. Without BDO, PBAT manufacturers would be in trouble. It is understood that due to the shortage of BDO in the early stage, it is said that the boss of a certain PBAT manufacturer personally went out to search for BDO sources, and the price of BDO soared in the early stage.
However, PBAT manufacturers have experienced good times recently, and the skyrocketing BOD has cooled down rapidly! Recently, the domestic BDO market has continued to decline. With increasing supply and sluggish demand, the BDO market has been on a “slide”. Sample data shows that as of June 4, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 19,600 yuan/ton, with prices falling 28.79% month-on-month and up 137.29% year-on-year. In terms of market prices, mainstream discussions for spot bulk water in East China are around 18,000-18,500 yuan/ton.
BOD raw materials have fallen sharply, mainly because the price increase in the domestic BDO market in the early period and speed was too fast, exceeding the acceptable range of the downstream, and the recent demand side The downturn continues, there is a strong short-selling atmosphere on the market, low prices and confusion on the market, and discussions on actual orders are on the low side. On the supply side: Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical and Shaanxi Ronghe have finished restarting after replacing catalysts, and Shaanxi Black Cat restarted at the end of May and are gradually increasing their load, and supply has increased. The overall consumption on the demand side has not changed much, and major customers mainly cover their positions according to appointments. It is difficult for terminals to accept high-priced raw materials, and cost transfer is blocked. Many downstream industries, such as PTMEG, PBT, PBAT, etc., have lowered their prices following the decline of raw materials. When purchasing raw materials with profit intention, the prices are seriously suppressed.
The editor believes that a narrow decline is a normal phenomenon, but based on the support of factors such as the spot stock is still tight, the main downstream demand is acceptable, and the emerging industry PBAT is still expected to increase production, the short-term The probability of another sharp decline in the domestic market is not high. Therefore, in order to seek healthy development of upstream and downstream, a rational decline in the domestic BDO market is inevitable, but the magnitude is still relatively limited.
Raw materials are in short supply, and raw material matching and integrated layout have become PBAT The winner of the company’s subsequent market competition
The number of new PBAT projects continues to increase, indicating that the product has no technical barriers. Although the current profit is very good, if it cannot be improved in modification and products If there is a breakthrough, it will inevitably fall into cost competition in the long run. Once cost competition enters, the degree of integration, scale effect, and cost control become key indicators for measuring project competitiveness.
Data show that based on the demand for a surge in production capacity in the context of favorable policies for biodegradable plastic PBAT in the next few years, the total production capacity of BDO’s currently under construction and announced construction projects exceeds 3 million tons/ Year.
There are two very important forces in the domestic planned PBAT projects, that is, the central and eastern regions have PTA and adipic acid production capacity enterprises, and enterprises with BDO production capacity in the west. For example, Huafon Group is the largest supplier of adipic acid in China and plans to build a PBAT production capacity of 300,000 tons; there are also Xinjiang Meike, Lanshan Tunhe, Dongyuan Technology, etc. in the west, which are major domestic BDO manufacturers. PBAT production capacity is already under construction or expansion. According to CICC, Hengli Group is also planning to build a BDO production capacity of 1.2 million tons, with the first phase of 300,000 tons.