Relying on market and labor cost advantages, China, India and Southeast Asia are undertaking the transfer of the world’s chemical fiber industry. At present, global production capacity is mainly distributed in my country, India, ASEAN, South Korea and Western Europe. Affected by the distribution of downstream chemical fiber trade distribution centers and major raw material suppliers, my country’s chemical fiber production capacity is mainly distributed in Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province and Fujian Province, and the regional characteristics of the industry are relatively obvious.
After 40 years of development, my country’s chemical fiber industry has grown from scratch to The development process from big to strong. In 2020, my country’s output exceeded 60 million tons, accounting for 70% of total global consumption; domestic consumption of upstream raw materials PX, PTA and ethylene glycol accounted for approximately 60% of global consumption. my country has become a veritable powerhouse in the chemical fiber industry worldwide, and currently has formed a market structure in which domestic sales are the mainstay and synthetic fibers are the mainstream products. The scale effect of the chemical fiber industry is very obvious, so large players with hundreds of billions of dollars have formed an oligopoly situation. They not only have higher bargaining power, but also guide the development of various major chemical fibers.
Polyester accounts for 80% of chemical fiber output
The future prosperity depends on filament
In 2020, polyester output will be nearly 50 million tons, accounting for 80% of chemical fiber output, but the growth rate is only 3.9%, and has been growing at a single-digit rate for a long time, so large-scale low growth rates are not The future of the capital-hungry polyester fiber industry depends on whether the downstream industry can support growth. Future growth will mainly rely on filament. The entry barriers for polyester filament are low and the bargaining power for downstream is weak. Taking a 300,000-ton filament factory as an example, with an initial investment of about 1.2 billion and 400 workers, it can form an annual A medium-sized enterprise with a revenue of 200 million yuan can generally recover its investment in 10 to 15 years. In addition, the proportion of direct labor costs in filament production continues to be less than 2%. There will be no severe impact of rising labor costs after the Lewis turning point, and the industrial chain will remain in China for a long time.
The polyester filament market is concentrated High degree
The birth of many tens of billions of big players
In the final analysis, the core competitiveness of polyester filament companies is based on scale effect raw material cost advantages, logistics rates, and high-quality customer stickiness. At present, there are generally two types of polyester filament enterprises. One is an integrated enterprise with a full industrial chain layout, represented by Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical; the other is deeply involved in the mid-stream and downstream of chemical fiber based on regional raw material cost advantages. companies, representative companies include Tongkun Co., Ltd., Xinfengming, and Hengli Petrochemical. The above-mentioned five companies have a combined market value of nearly 500 billion yuan, and their output exceeds 50% of CR5. They are expected to lead the future development of the industry.
Top 20 domestic polyester production capacity companies:
Polyester products are relatively cheap , the differences in operations between companies are more in the comprehensive coverage of the industrial chain and cost control, but the overall products are relatively homogeneous. From an investment perspective, more emphasis is placed on the comprehensive competitiveness of the project, relative differentiation of core products, and cost control capabilities. The future growth of polyester filament lies in the expansion of output and the recovery of demand in the downstream market. Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xinfengming are expected to put into production a total of 2.5 million tons of filament production capacity in 2021, which is expected to increase the industry growth by 1pct; downstream market With the certainty of growth, with the release of the first quarter financial report of leading companies, the steady growth trend is obvious, driving the demand for polyester filament to increase.
Leading companies will become bigger and bigger
Domestic chemical fiber has formed a huge market geographical trend
As for the overall trend of chemical fiber, we believe that major players will continue to make profits in the future, and rely on mergers and acquisitions, integration and innovative research and development, and the market value will hit new highs. Because general-purpose materials tend to be good at long-distance running. In the past ten years, both the supply and demand sides of China’s textile and apparel industry have been in an environment of reshuffle and change after the dividends faded.
Faced with opportunities and challenges, a number of leading companies with competitive advantages have emerged in China. Under the test of the epidemic last year, international competitiveness has initially emerged. In the future, in the “internal circulation” and “dual circulation” Under the new pattern trend of “circulation”, there is long-term growth space for outstanding leading enterprises. The inherent characteristics of the chemical fiber industry are that it has a large amount of capital demand and obvious cyclicality. Whether it is its own capital accumulation or the expansion of financing channels after listing, leading companies can better meet the needs of conquering cities and territories; while industrial clusters often have sufficient local policies, Leading companies can not only fully enjoy policy incentives to complete the ramp-up of new production capacity, but also receive support from all parties to complete mergers and reorganizations of local enterprises.
The trend of integration and globalization is also becoming more and more obvious. Even if the main fibers account for a relatively high proportion in the world, in the future, due to biological substitution and technological improvements, vertical integration and one-stop We will increase the depth of integration in our integrated services and actively seek overseas markets and technical cooperation. Superimposed on excellent management output, mature production capacity upgrades, automation and lean production construction, a good basic package of sufficient funds + efficient production capacity + mature technology has been formed. In addition, chemical fiber companies also show that large companies are getting stronger and bigger, and small and medium-sized companies are turning to specialized companies.The trend of industrialization, refinement and characteristic development. As the “national trend” of Made in China becomes popular, there will also be steady growth in downstream demand, as well as regional trends of high-end products in the east, natural fibers in the west, and huge markets in the central region. </p